Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[rcronald]

Ok, I’m pretty confident that the LNP is going to win a majority.

[willpower3]

Oct 26, 2024 11:52:11 GMT rcronald said:

Ok, I’m pretty confident that the LNP is going to win a majority.

A pretty comfortable one if they win all of the in doubt seats they are ahead in at present. Maybe around the low 50s in seats and the ALP in the mid 30s, which is practically a reversal of last time. The way the count has unfolded has set something of a narrative that they almost blew it, a narrative that would have been different if the LNP were stronger on the in day vote and weaker on the postals and prepolls (in which case the majority would have looked likely early on). 

[rcronald]

Oct 26, 2024 12:51:53 GMT willpower3 said:

Oct 26, 2024 11:52:11 GMT rcronald said:

Ok, I’m pretty confident that the LNP is going to win a majority.

A pretty comfortable one if they win all of the in doubt seats they are ahead in at present. Maybe around the low 50s in seats and the ALP in the mid 30s, which is practically a reversal of last time. The way the count has unfolded has set something of a narrative that they almost blew it, a narrative that would have been different if the LNP were stronger on the in day vote and weaker on the postals and prepolls (in which case the majority would have looked likely early on). 

Yes, they didn’t underperform as badly as it looked like earlier.

[timmullen]

Oct 26, 2024 12:51:53 GMT willpower3 said:

Oct 26, 2024 11:52:11 GMT rcronald said:

Ok, I’m pretty confident that the LNP is going to win a majority.

A pretty comfortable one if they win all of the in doubt seats they are ahead in at present. Maybe around the low 50s in seats and the ALP in the mid 30s, which is practically a reversal of last time. The way the count has unfolded has set something of a narrative that they almost blew it, a narrative that would have been different if the LNP were stronger on the in day vote and weaker on the postals and prepolls (in which case the majority would have looked likely early on). 

A summary looks like Labor have retained their strength in Greater Brisbane, including seeing off the expected Green challenge, but lost too heavily in Rural QLD, including traditional “red wall” seats like Rockhampton.

Labor can take some solace from avoiding the predicted wipeout whilst recovering their by-election loss in Ipswich South and holding Ipswich. I’d also put Capalaba in the “candidate’s personal vote” bracket. Interestingly on current figures they’d also win the Federal seat of Leichardt particularly if, as is rumoured, Warren Entsch retires (his wife has failed to win today which may be a hint that the Entsch personal vote is losing its clout).

[Sibboleth]

Unusual circumstances in Rockhampton: a well-known local government figure ran as an independent and directed her preferences to the LNP.

[timmullen]

Oct 26, 2024 14:01:54 GMT Sibboleth said:

Unusual circumstances in Rockhampton: a well-known local government figure ran as an independent and directed her preferences to the LNP.

She’s a former Labor Mayor, was recruited by Palaszczuk to run in 2017 but lost the members preselection ballot and ran is an Independent, missing out as One Nation preferences pushed the LNP into second thus excluding her. She didn’t run in 2020 as she was under investigation for not declaring hospitality she had received as a councillor.

[timmullen]

One that slipped under my radar but the leader of South Australia’s Liberal opposition has been forced to resign after being charged with supply of a controlled substance (a video has emerged of him sniffing a white powdery substance), and Labor has won the by-election, the first time a SA governing party has gained a seat from the opposition.

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-black-by-election-2024/results?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

[jamie]

Nov 16, 2024 9:07:49 GMT timmullen said:

One that slipped under my radar but the leader of South Australia’s Liberal opposition has been forced to resign after being charged with supply of a controlled substance (a video has emerged of him sniffing a white powdery substance), and Labor has won the by-election, the first time a SA governing party has gained a seat from the opposition.

That record was already broken this year, as Labor gained the former Liberal premier’s seat of Dunstan. 

[timmullen]

Nov 16, 2024 10:27:55 GMT jamie said:

Nov 16, 2024 9:07:49 GMT timmullen said:

One that slipped under my radar but the leader of South Australia’s Liberal opposition has been forced to resign after being charged with supply of a controlled substance (a video has emerged of him sniffing a white powdery substance), and Labor has won the by-election, the first time a SA governing party has gained a seat from the opposition.

That record was already broken this year, as Labor gained the former Liberal premier’s seat of Dunstan. 

Do you want to tell Antony Green, I’m not brave enough 😉

[The Bishop]

I know that state elections in Oz are very much not mere proxies for a federal election, but the coalition losing by-elections at the former level at this time must still be rather a cautionary note as to their chances of returning to power at the next GE.

[timmullen]

Nov 16, 2024 11:13:37 GMT The Bishop said:

I know that state elections in Oz are very much not mere proxies for a federal election, but the coalition losing by-elections at the former level at this time must still be a cautionary note as to their chances of returning to power at the next GE.

And it’s beyond possible that we’re barely four months away from said election; Western Australia is in limbo as their next State election is scheduled for the same day in March that is being talked about as a Federal general election so would have to be moved a couple of weeks later.

[jamie]

Nov 16, 2024 11:13:37 GMT The Bishop said:

I know that state elections in Oz are very much not mere proxies for a federal election, but the coalition losing by-elections at the former level at this time must still be rather a cautionary note as to their chances of returning to power at the next GE.

It’s a mixed picture. The results in SA are terrible for the Coalition and suggest it may end up Labor’s strongest state. The recent NSW by-election loss was bad but it was to an independent not Labor, and the independent would probably have won in the 2023 general election if Labor and the Greens had no candidates then as well (compulsory voting with optional preferential voting leads to some of these voters not preferencing the independent, but they would preference them ahead of the Liberals under compulsory preferential voting, or in this case giving them their 1st preference as the field is only 3 candidates, 2 of them right wing). 

FWIW, Victoria looks strong for the coalition (ironic, given the Australian press talk about Dutton as being uniquely unelectable in the state), and no state/territory looks particularly bad for them except SA.