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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 25, 2024 18:53:55 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 25, 2024 19:01:39 GMT
How does that work? All you end up with are members who are unofficially, rather than officially, part of a different group.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 25, 2024 19:02:09 GMT
Anyway, the levels of racial polarization in the Northern Territory elections are depressing. Things haven't been like that in decades.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 25, 2024 19:39:50 GMT
ElectionsResults 1974 - 2024 (57.6% counted):  Yes, the ALP won twice a seatMajority despite CLP being ahead in 2-PartyPreference. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 25, 2024 20:27:44 GMT
How does that work? All you end up with are members who are unofficially, rather than officially, part of a different group. The suggestion is that a super majority of the parliamentary party - New Zealand has two-thirds but Tasmania is looking at three-quarters - would be able to expel such MPs to trigger the clause albeit with a requirement to demonstrate the MPs had de facto left the party. I'm not sure this idea has been terribly well thought through (how would it work with a small parliamentary party where the majority of caucus has fallen out with the external leadership?) and share Kevin Bonham's speculation that 'consultation with "Australian and international legal, Parliamentary and constitutional experts"' has yielded a load of unrepeatable responses. |
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Post by timmullen on Aug 25, 2024 21:54:06 GMT
How does that work? All you end up with are members who are unofficially, rather than officially, part of a different group. The suggestion is that a super majority of the parliamentary party - New Zealand has two-thirds but Tasmania is looking at three-quarters - would be able to expel such MPs to trigger the clause albeit with a requirement to demonstrate the MPs had de facto left the party. I'm not sure this idea has been terribly well thought through (how would it work with a small parliamentary party where the majority of caucus has fallen out with the external leadership?) and share Kevin Bonham's speculation that 'consultation with "Australian and international legal, Parliamentary and constitutional experts"' has yielded a load of unrepeatable responses. I think the Tas Libs are somewhat similar paranoid (too strong?) about Party switching as the previous two administrations have lost their majorities due to Liberal members to Independent that persuaded Jeremy Rockcliff to call early elections this year at which they lost their majority (although they were a minority thanks to the defections but are even more reliant on crossbenchers). m |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 26, 2024 8:16:25 GMT
Fannie Bay is getting even more in doubt. A "realignment" has been carried out - basically a new Two Candidate Preferred count between the CLP and Greens to replace the CLP/Labor count. And the Greens are not doing as well on Labor & Independent preference flows as predicted. Currently the CLP have a 36 vote margin. ntec.nt.gov.au/elections/current-elections/2024-territory-election/results/fannie-bay(Antony Green is flying back from Darwin to Sydney so the ABC system hasn't caught this yet.) If the CLP pull this off then this could be first known occasion when one of the major parties wins a seat despite the other winning the 2PP. There's also still the possibility of Labor making the final two - they're currently trailing the Greens on first preferences by 39 votes. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 27, 2024 10:49:56 GMT
It's now looking very likely the Greens can't win Fannie Bay. The realignment has the CLP leading the 2CP by 55 votes with only about 150 more votes to come, mainly postals that will favour the CLP. There's still an outside chance Labor could overturn a 42 vote gap to get into the last two on the remaining votes plus preferences from the Independent on 177 votes. If so Labor would win, otherwise the CLP take it. Tomorrow there will be a three candidate preferred count of the Independent votes to see how they split and what the likely final two are.
In Nightcliff it's looking increasingly unlikely that Independent Mililma May will overtake the Greens on outstanding votes & transfers from Independent George Mamouzellos. In turn this makes it likely the Greens will overtake the CLP on May's transfers but there isn't yet a 2CP count for this outcome to see just how far the CLP voters followed the HTV card.
Barkly is also close. In 2020 the CLP won by just 5 votes - the closest election in Territory history. The swings in the outback have been very different from the towns and currently it's only 1.1% to the CLP. Postals widened the gap but absents narrowed it and currently the lead over Labor is only 64 votes. There are only two candidates. The ABC are calling this for the CLP but it could drift back into the in doubt column.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435
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Post by iain on Sept 4, 2024 7:46:14 GMT
As was flagged up thread, shockingly weak preference flows from Labor have allowed the CLP to take Fannie Bay rather than the Greens. However, it now looks as though the Greens will take Nightcliff from Labor thanks to a stronger than expected preference flow from the CLP.
This is the Greens’ first ever seat in the NT, and means that Labor have been wiped out in Darwin and Palmerston.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 4, 2024 10:46:40 GMT
In Nightcliff the combined flow from the two independents went 72.6% Greens, 14.0% Labor 13.4% CLP. Then the CLP split 51.4% Labor 48.6% Greens. antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-election-post-election-blog/The CLP How To Vote card had Labor ahead of the Greens but it seems many of their voters either didn't follow it or never got it. Antony Green has noted the CLP to Green flow is broadly inverse with the strength of the CLP vote which may reflect where they had activists giving them out. And why you don't rush to call seats based on projections only rather than actual preference flows: This leaves Labor with just four outback seats. Selena Uibo, the Minister for Health, Minister for Mental Health & Suicide Prevention, Remote Housing and Homelands, Parks and Rangers, Local Decision Making, Public Employment and Minister for Corporate and Digital Development (whew) in the outgoing government has become the new leader. Her seat of Arnhem is the only one of the four that swung to the CLP on the 2PP despite their re-recruiting a strong Independent candidate from 2020 (he had been the CLP candidate in 2016). Compared to his Independent result in 2020 the seat has swung to Labor. Dheran Young, the outgoing Speaker, has become deputy leader. |
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Post by timmullen on Sept 4, 2024 11:46:13 GMT
In Nightcliff the combined flow from the two independents went 72.6% Greens, 14.0% Labor 13.4% CLP. Then the CLP split 51.4% Labor 48.6% Greens. antonygreen.com.au/nt2024-election-post-election-blog/The CLP How To Vote card had Labor ahead of the Greens but it seems many of their voters either didn't follow it or never got it. Antony Green has noted the CLP to Green flow is broadly inverse with the strength of the CLP vote which may reflect where they had activists giving them out. And why you don't rush to call seats based on projections only rather than actual preference flows: As I mentioned earlier when the ABC live broadcast ended Antony Green was pretty confident Natasha Fyles, who was on their studio panel, would retain Nightcliff, but her final sentence was along the lines of “I hope he’s right but I don’t feel his confidence level” so I suspect she had an inkling she’d be run down on preferences. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 4, 2024 12:47:23 GMT
So she maybe at least had the self awareness to know how unpopular she was (comparisons with a certain former head of government here are available)
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Post by timmullen on Sept 4, 2024 15:18:52 GMT
So she maybe at least had the self awareness to know how unpopular she was (comparisons with a certain former head of government here are available) The feeling is it’s the Party not the person; Labor have got slaughtered in the cities this year, partly because the CLP have run almost solely on a “crime is out of control” message - they tried it four years ago when Files was Chief Minister but they fell short partly because like her colleagues across the country she was seen to have handled Covid successfully, and the centre right vote was split with the breakaway Territory Alliance which has since fizzled to extinction. I think her pessimism was borne out of knowing how the Independent transfers would break; had the CLP beaten the Greens into second (which William Bowe is saying is still not totally impossible though unlikely) she would have hung on as a result of nobody preferencing the Greens. Bowe is suggesting it’s a surprise result as the Greens had expected to win Fannie Bay but did very poorly on preferences and set Nightcliff up for 2029. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 7, 2024 16:34:47 GMT
 2PP is not final yet at the EC-site, thus i post just the 1st preFerence:  |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Sept 14, 2024 10:03:42 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 25, 2024 7:30:45 GMT
The next ACT election will be held on 19th October.
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 1, 2024 7:13:12 GMT
The next Queensland state election will be held on 26th October.
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 1, 2024 13:55:13 GMT
The next Queensland state election will be held on 26th October. It will be interesting to see if the bus and Translink (Brisbane + Gold coast area bus/train/trams) 50 cent fare has saved the current Labor government's bacon. It has gone down very well with the electorate, but it is seen as a blatant bribe by some. |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 1, 2024 15:28:54 GMT
The next Queensland state election will be held on 26th October. It will be interesting to see if the bus and Translink (Brisbane + Gold coast area bus/train/trams) 50 cent fare has saved the current Labor government's bacon. It has gone down very well with the electorate, but it is seen as a blatant bribe by some. The LNP have stated that they will keep it in place if they win. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Oct 1, 2024 23:45:22 GMT
It will be interesting to see if the bus and Translink (Brisbane + Gold coast area bus/train/trams) 50 cent fare has saved the current Labor government's bacon. It has gone down very well with the electorate, but it is seen as a blatant bribe by some. The LNP have stated that they will keep it in place if they win. I doubt that we can believe them, though. I was thinking about how big the electoral impact of the fares cut will be. |
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