Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[markgoodair]

A total of 525 candidates will be standing in the Queensland election with Labor, LNP, Greens and One Nation standing in all 93 electorates . Family First have 59 candidates and Legalise Cannabis 29.

[timrollpickering]

This is not the historic Family First that merged into the Australian Conservatives (now dissolved) but a new party formed by ex Labor people. One of the outgoing MLAs in the ACT got deselected by the Liberals and is seeking re-electiopn as Family First.

[timmullen]

The Australian Capital Territory election seems to have produced another hung parliament, the Labor vote is down a small amount to their pre-Covid election numbers, the Liberals are up marginally to produce a near dead heat, but the Greens are being pushed by a new Independents for Canberra group. It would seem that the eventual outcome will be a continuation of the ALP/Green coalition, Antony Green is currently projecting 10 Labor, 10 Liberals, 3 Greens, 1 Independents for Canberra and 1 Independent to be elected, which will make Andrew Barr the longest serving First Minister.

In New South Wales there have been three State by-elections in Liberal seats; the former Premier Dominic Perrotet and former Treasurer Matt Kean have resigned following last year’s election defeat and their Epping and Hornsby electorates have been comfortably held with no Labor candidates, the Greens and a scattering of Independents and minor parties making up the opposition. In Pitwater the incumbent Liberal, Rory Amon, who was elected for the first time last year by under 700 votes resigned the day before his arrest on child sex abuse charges and his seat has fallen to the Independent runner-up Jacqui Scruby who has worked for two Federal Teal Independent MHR’s, Suzy Scamps and Zalli Steagall.

[markgoodair]

Looks like the Queensland Election is not a foregone conclusion.
www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-25/queensland-election-campaign-poll-shows-ground-shifting/104516204

[iain]

The LNP have run an absolutely disastrous campaign. A victory still seems all but assured, but the previously expected landslide has become pretty unlikely.

Labor will almost certainly melt down totally in Townsville, but it is their performance in other regional centres and the Brisbane outer suburbs which will decide the scale of the LNP victory. The LNP doesn't seem to have made much progress in Brisbane's inner suburbs, and Labor are apparently increasingly confident of holding off any major Green surge (the Greens have supposedly cut their target list back from 7 to 4 seats). The KAP are apparently confident of taking a couple of regional electorates around Cairns, and maybe something in Townsville, from Labor, but the KAP always seem confident and rarely does this lead anywhere.

[rcronald]

Oct 25, 2024 9:22:11 GMT iain said:

The LNP have run an absolutely disastrous campaign. A victory still seems all but assured, but the previously expected landslide has become pretty unlikely.

Labor will almost certainly melt down totally in Townsville, but it is their performance in other regional centres and the Brisbane outer suburbs which will decide the scale of the LNP victory. The LNP doesn't seem to have made much progress in Brisbane's inner suburbs, and Labor are apparently increasingly confident of holding off any major Green surge (the Greens have apparently cut their target list back from 7 to 4 seats). The KAP are apparently confident of taking a couple of regional electorates around Cairns, and maybe something in Townsville, from Labor, but the KAP always seem confident and rarely does this lead anywhere.

LNP and incompetence, what an iconic duo.

[willpower3]

A uComms poll has the two-party vote shares at LNP 51, ALP 49. The ALP would probably have an outside chance of holding on as a minority government if those shares came to fruition.

[Georg Ebner]

ABC's liveStream:

iview.abc.net.au/video/NS1413V001S00

Their resultsSite:

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/results/party-totals

Just 4.4% counted LNP seems in 2PP at 51.2% - so a 4.4% swing, which is probably ~1% too low for an overall majority.

[markgoodair]

Current results in LNP 33 ALP 30 KAP 2 28 seats in doubt

[iain]

Terrible LNP results so far (still a swing towards them). Will be very funny if they actually blow this.

[Georg Ebner]

Long night to be expected: For a clear victory LNP seems to be doing too badly in Brisbane, Labor in the towns.

[iain]

Greens were expecting a good result, maybe a handful of gains in Brisbane’s inner suburbs. It looks like in reality they may actually go backwards, losing South Brisbane to Labor.

[willpower3]

Oct 26, 2024 9:57:56 GMT iain said:

Greens were expecting a good result, maybe a handful of gains in Brisbane’s inner suburbs. It looks like in reality they may actually go backwards, losing South Brisbane to Labor.

Antony Green has said that that might be the only seat to change hands in Greater Brisbane. 

[rcronald]

The LNP needing Katter to govern is going to be fun to watch….

[redvers]

The LNP really looks to have blown this historic opportunity...not that they don't have experience blowing historic opportunities

[rcronald]

Oct 26, 2024 10:43:26 GMT redvers said:

The LNP really looks to have blown this historic opportunity...not that they don't have experience blowing historic opportunities

they have self destructed for 3 or 4 elections straight lol

[rcronald]

Btw, Steven Miles run a solid campaign (I think that Labour would have outright won if he didn’t float some stupid very left wing idea just before the campaign, which he rightfully backtracked when the campaign started), so it’s not just the LNP.

[iain]

Though it may be that outperformance on pre-polls saves the LNP, with many votes cast before the wheels totally fell off their campaign.

[timmullen]

The Poll Bludger site (somebody else is doing it tonight as William Bowe’s number crunching in one of the TV network decision desks) has the LNP bang on 47 with pre polls generally swinging more heavily in their favour than the election day vote.

[redvers]

It would be great hilarity if the LNP fall short of a majority and have to rely on KAP. The lols would be numerous.

For anyone wondering, doesn't seem a viable way for Labor to pull this off. But the fact we'd even be wondering that shows how much the LNP have blown their supreme advantages.