Bloodbath for Liberals, Nationals holding up, One Nation quite under its polling. They polled up to 15%, they were at 9% before election, but they are just under 5% right now, which is probably worse for them than the most pessimistic predictions.
One Nation aren't standing in every seat though; that will deflate their support even if they don't lose popularity. I still think that they've got a chance in the upper house for a few seats; although at 5% they do run the risk of being passed by a micro party who manage to harvest lots of preferences and even if that doesn't actually elect them (although I'm sure that at least one of them will be elected off of a very low first preference vote; honestly they deserve it for keeping this silly silly system) it might end up to One Nation being eliminated before the micro party so they won't still be in the count when whoever that is gets eliminated and the preferences scatter between the majors. There's very little counted in the Legislative Council yet though so its hard to say - less than 0.1% in all of the regions.
The ABC has the first set of Upper House numbers; in the Agricultural zone on the current results (5.71% counted) they have 2 Nationals, 2 Labor, 1 Liberal for sure and I'm a little confused on the last seat - the list at the top says the Daylight Savings Party have it; but the actual calculation on the Group Voting Tickets is giving the last seat to the Shooters and Fishers. The vast majority of Micro party preferences are going to the Shooters over One Nation, and at this point that's enough to put the Shooters ahead even though One Nation are quite close to a Quota on First Preferences.
It's a pity we do not have a 'swing voter' from Australia to comment on this thread?
On reflection it's a very bad idea!
Indeed. I don't think a 14-year-old from the Sydney area would be able to offer any greater insight than we can already gleam into an election that took place thousands of kilometres away from where he lives.