maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2017 9:44:26 GMT
Also, very possible One Nation ends with 0 seats, but Katter Party (socially conservative, left-wing economics) has 3 seats, despite ON outpolling KAP by a lot.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2017 10:36:10 GMT
Seems Liberal are blaming their likely loss on "Labour tinkering with the electoral system", refering to the chnage from optionnal preferencing to compulsory preferencing (i.e. a return to the pre-2002 system).
For people not aware, optionnal is like scottish local by-election, compulsory is preferential voting, but you didn't write numbers next to all candidates (or to all, but one), your vote is INVALID and not counted.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 25, 2017 11:28:21 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2017 11:38:51 GMT
Are you it's not the website for the 1997 elections? It's look so aged and old. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 25, 2017 11:59:34 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 25, 2017 12:21:55 GMT
Not really, it would mean I drifted right-wing quite a lot, as the area it covers never voted Labor ever. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 25, 2017 20:52:18 GMT
Well...sort of. It has areas which are the most right wing and reactionary, largely because more of the population lives in the rural outback, but overall, its a state which has actually swung to the left since the days of the National party hegemony. the looming figure of Sir Joh had a huge rightward influence over Queensland politics and since he went, the state has been much more of a tossup (as i think it was before he came to dominate). stand to be corrected on the latter of course. Sir Joh made sure the boundaries were drawn in such a way that being out-polled by Labor would not prevent a victory for himself and his Country (later National) Party. He made sure rural seats were more heavily weighed than urban ones. I am fairly sure his party came third in terms of votes but still won a plurality of seats. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 26, 2017 0:25:59 GMT
The Greens won The Gabba ward on Brisbane City Council last year (yes, as in the cricket ground). The areas covered by that ward are all in the South Brisbane seat, so I'm not sure what greenhert has heard if he thinks they're in with a better chance in Mount Coot-tha instead. He thinks they have no chance there. No party will be able to win that electorate. I finally found out what you were referring to the day before the election. Mount Coot-tha conveniently disappeared in the boundary review, even though the Queensland legislature has actually increased in size by 4 seats. Anyway, it looks like a narrow Labour majority government with 2-3 seats for the KAP, 0-1 for One Nation plus 1 or 2 independents. The two best chances for the Greens were indeed in South Brisbane and Maiwar (which overlaps with the abolished electorate), but unseating the Deputy Premier proved too tall an order and winning from third place was a bit much to ask as well. |
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Post by IceAgeComing on Nov 26, 2017 0:57:00 GMT
Maiwar is still very much a possibility; the LNP MP (the Shadow Treasurer) has definately lost, and on the current vote the Greens lead the ALP by 0.7% (with a random independent on 2.3%, who knows where those preferences go). I don't know how the early vote tends to go, but the Greens certainly are still in with a very strong shout at winning the seat.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 26, 2017 10:41:00 GMT
Also, very possible One Nation ends with 0 seats, but Katter Party (socially conservative, left-wing economics) has 3 seats, despite ON outpolling KAP by a lot. Hardly surprising given the very obvious concentration of the KAP vote. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 30, 2017 16:33:32 GMT
How much longer is this going to take? Several critical seats which decide the overall outcome are still in doubt, as is Maiwar which could see the first Green elected to the Queensland state parliament.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 30, 2017 16:38:20 GMT
How much longer is this going to take? Weeks, which is normal for Australia and its third-world infrastructure. |
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Post by greenhert on Nov 30, 2017 16:44:52 GMT
Yes, but normally by now the overall results are clearly decided even when counting has not quite finished. I hate having to delay my electoral analyses...
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 30, 2017 17:37:22 GMT
Yes, but normally by now the overall results are clearly decided even when counting has not quite finished. I hate having to delay my electoral analyses... ... and I enjoy reading them. You'd have been able to publish one for Queensland by now if Australia were a developed country. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2017 22:25:57 GMT
ABC declaring that Labor has secured 47 seats and a majority. 4 seats still in doubt.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 1, 2017 11:20:51 GMT
The seats in doubt are
Burdekin (LNP ahead by 364 votes in an ALP held seat)
Hinchinbrook (looks like a KAP gain from LNP)
Maiwar (looks like a Green gain from LNP)
Townsville (LNP ahead by just 13 votes in an ALP held seat)
Final composition looks like
ALP: 47-49
LNP: 38-40
KAP: 3
Grn: 1
One Nation: 1
Ind: 1
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 2, 2017 0:21:04 GMT
The predicted Green gain appears to be based on the assumption that the Green candidate will definitely finish ahead of Labor as long as he's in front on first preferences, however narrowly. Under compulsory preferential voting (re-introduced to Queensland at this election), that isn't necessarily the case.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 2, 2017 13:29:18 GMT
The predicted Green gain appears to be based on the assumption that the Green candidate will definitely finish ahead of Labor as long as he's in front on first preferences, however narrowly. Under compulsory preferential voting (re-introduced to Queensland at this election), that isn't necessarily the case. There is a tendency for thrid party/independent votes to flow to other third parties first. Seems than on first preferences, Green lead over Labour is 3. In any case, the LNP incumbent conceded back on November 27th and will lose against whomever of Labor or Green finish 2nd. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 2, 2017 21:25:46 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 2, 2017 22:01:52 GMT
Good, but you might've wanted to do a bit more research into the gender of the new independent MP before posting that.  |
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