|
|
Post by timmullen on Mar 23, 2024 13:29:16 GMT
We don’t seem to have mentioned three other elections to State parliaments.
There was a double by-election in Queensland two weeks ago with the ALP retaining the former Premier, Anastasia Palaczuk’s seat of Inala despite a 21.3% swing to the LNP and losing Ipswich West to the LNP on a 17.9% swing (the incumbent, Jim Madden had resigned to run for election to Ipswich Council, looking like successfully). Neither of these bode well for new Premier, Steven Miles, who faces a general election in October.
Also in QLD the LNP kept the Lord Mayoralty of Brisbane and control of the City Council; they swapped a Ward each with the ALP and lost one to the Queensland Greens, and are favourites to retain the one outstanding Ward.
Today voters in South Australia went to the polls in Dunstan following the resignation of former Premier Stephen Marshall. Labor have gained this seat (the most marginal in SA) on a current 3.2% swing.
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Mar 23, 2024 13:36:08 GMT
He was unsuccessful, finishing third on Primaries so not making the 2CP run off. |
|
mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
|
Post by mrtoad on Mar 23, 2024 19:06:58 GMT
Antony Green’s ABC site (William Bowe doesn’t appear to be breaking the numbers down by candidate elected or possible on The Poll Bludger) has: Lyons: Re-elected: Rebecca White (ALP), Guy Barnett (Lib), Mark Shelton (Lib) Elected: Jane Howlett (Lib) Possible (2 seats): Tabatha Badger (Tas Greens), Jen Butler (ALP incumbent) Defeated: John Tucker (Independent incumbent - see Lara Alexander in Bass) Tabatha Badger is a splendid Green name. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Mar 23, 2024 19:43:37 GMT
Antony Green’s ABC site (William Bowe doesn’t appear to be breaking the numbers down by candidate elected or possible on The Poll Bludger) has: Lyons: Re-elected: Rebecca White (ALP), Guy Barnett (Lib), Mark Shelton (Lib) Elected: Jane Howlett (Lib) Possible (2 seats): Tabatha Badger (Tas Greens), Jen Butler (ALP incumbent) Defeated: John Tucker (Independent incumbent - see Lara Alexander in Bass) Tabatha Badger is a splendid Green name. Yes, she's sett up for life politically. |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,714
Member is Online
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 23, 2024 20:51:54 GMT
Antony Green’s ABC site (William Bowe doesn’t appear to be breaking the numbers down by candidate elected or possible on The Poll Bludger) has: Lyons: Re-elected: Rebecca White (ALP), Guy Barnett (Lib), Mark Shelton (Lib) Elected: Jane Howlett (Lib) Possible (2 seats): Tabatha Badger (Tas Greens), Jen Butler (ALP incumbent) Defeated: John Tucker (Independent incumbent - see Lara Alexander in Bass) Tabatha Badger is a splendid Green name. It is like a Funeral Director named Magdalen (pronounced Maudlin) Regret, and her assistant, Constant Digger. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
|
Post by iain on Mar 23, 2024 21:01:18 GMT
It looks like PR will do what it does best and deliver government by a coalition of the losers. Under compulsory preferencing TPP, it is estimated that Labor would have a fairly comfortable lead (53-47). |
|
|
|
Post by strinityhobart on Mar 23, 2024 21:24:17 GMT
Kevin Bonham has put up some post count threads: BassBraddonClarkFranklinLyonsTLDR O'Byrne now safe in Franklin with Liberals clear favourite to get a third at the expense of a second Green. JLN favoured over Labor for the final Lyons seat because of Labor's greater susceptibility to preference leakage. And he seems confident about Greens holding on for a second seat in Clark ahead of a third Labor. He also thinks intriguingly that the independent Garland has an outside chance to overtake the fourth Liberal in Braddon. Central outcome would thus be Lib 15 Lab 10 Green 5 JLN 3 Ind 2 Likeliest outcome atm thus seems a Lib government with JLN support - but how JLN approach negotiations is a bit of a wild card, and the term lasting four years seems challenging. Labor have paths to government but it would likely be an even less stable one. They might prefer to let the Liberals suffer in an unstable JLN partnership, change the leader from three time loser Rebecca White and set themselves up for a rematch in a year or two. |
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 23, 2024 22:07:35 GMT
It looks like PR will do what it does best and deliver government by a coalition of the losers. Under compulsory preferencing TPP, it is estimated that Labor would have a fairly comfortable lead (53-47). Preferencing systems are just as bad, if not worse, than PR. |
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
|
Post by iain on Mar 24, 2024 4:48:41 GMT
Rather surprisingly, Labor have indicated that they won’t even attempt to form a government. Even with that, the path to a majority looks like it could be tricky for the Liberals.
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Mar 24, 2024 7:51:49 GMT
Rather surprisingly, Labor have indicated that they won’t even attempt to form a government. Even with that, the path to a majority looks like it could be tricky for the Liberals. Antony Green suggested on the ABC election coverage that Labor would be “crazy” to attempt to form government, noting that every Party, and there were only about three examples, that had come from second place in terms of votes and seats to form either a minority or coalition government had been annihilated at the following election. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 24, 2024 10:25:42 GMT
Kevin Bonham has put up some post count threads: Well welcome back sir  |
|
|
|
Post by strinityhobart on Mar 24, 2024 11:29:58 GMT
Despite having a narrow path to a minority government Labor are declining to seek to form one, with Rebecca White saying the Liberals can have a free run to negotiate as the largest party. www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422ABC and others are writing this up as Labor having "conceded the election", which doesn't seem quite accurate based on the more careful wording of their public statements: perhaps this reflects differences within the party itself as to whether keeping the door open is a good idea. It's not clear what will happen if, as is still possible, Lab+Green+Ind gets to 18 but perhaps this implies that Labor would prefer another election under those circumstances. |
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Mar 24, 2024 11:49:59 GMT
Despite having a narrow path to a minority government Labor are declining to seek to form one, with Rebecca White saying the Liberals can have a free run to negotiate as the largest party. www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422ABC and others are writing this up as Labor having "conceded the election", which doesn't seem quite accurate based on the more careful wording of their public statements: perhaps this reflects differences within the party itself as to whether keeping the door open is a good idea. It's not clear what will happen if, as is still possible, Lab+Green+Ind gets to 18 but perhaps this implies that Labor would prefer another election under those circumstances. I love Lambie’s Australian “robust” view of the Liberal record. The analysis in the link suggests that the Liberals will struggle to get much traction with the independents and smaller parties. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Mar 24, 2024 12:36:38 GMT
Despite having a narrow path to a minority government Labor are declining to seek to form one, with Rebecca White saying the Liberals can have a free run to negotiate as the largest party. www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-24/labor-concede-tasmanian-election-rebecca-white-leader/103625422ABC and others are writing this up as Labor having "conceded the election", which doesn't seem quite accurate based on the more careful wording of their public statements: perhaps this reflects differences within the party itself as to whether keeping the door open is a good idea. It's not clear what will happen if, as is still possible, Lab+Green+Ind gets to 18 but perhaps this implies that Labor would prefer another election under those circumstances. I love Lambie’s Australian “robust” view of the Liberal record. The analysis in the link suggests that the Liberals will struggle to get much traction with the independents and smaller parties. Lambie is particularly pissed off with Rockcliffe and the Tasmanian Libs as they’ve ran a website identical in design and layout, with one minor tweak in the URL, to hers and used it to specifically attack her Group and as a fundraiser. She told the ABC results show that she’d texted Rockcliff on Friday offering their support in confidence and supply if he removed it and claimed the reply was two words, the second being “off”. EDIT: Useless trivia of the day: one of the JLN candidates who’s looking like he might be elected was Mayor of Windsor and Maidenhead in 2013-14. |
|
mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
Posts: 424
|
Post by mrtoad on Apr 4, 2024 8:04:22 GMT
I love Lambie’s Australian “robust” view of the Liberal record. The analysis in the link suggests that the Liberals will struggle to get much traction with the independents and smaller parties. Lambie is particularly pissed off with Rockcliffe and the Tasmanian Libs as they’ve ran a website identical in design and layout, with one minor tweak in the URL, to hers and used it to specifically attack her Group and as a fundraiser. She told the ABC results show that she’d texted Rockcliff on Friday offering their support in confidence and supply if he removed it and claimed the reply was two words, the second being “off”. EDIT: Useless trivia of the day: one of the JLN candidates who’s looking like he might be elected was Mayor of Windsor and Maidenhead in 2013-14. Per Antony Green's Twitter, Andrew Jenner, former Mayor of Windsor & Maidenhead, has indeed been elected for the Jacqui Lambie Network in the division of Lyons. He was a Conservative councillor for Maidenhead Riverside and wore an Australian hat with corks dangling from the brim at his mayor-making in 2013. www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/13549/New-mayor-of-Windsor-and-Maidenhead.html |
|
|
|
Post by strinityhobart on Apr 4, 2024 10:06:09 GMT
Counting was looking uneventful, but Kevin Bonham has now reported that the independent Craig Garland is looking like overtaking the Libs for the final seat in Braddon.
If other numbers go as predicted this would mean the Libs would need C&S from at least one independent to govern, not just JLN. This may cause problems given that none of them are naturally Lib friendly.
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
|
Post by jamie on Apr 4, 2024 15:52:15 GMT
Counting was looking uneventful, but Kevin Bonham has now reported that the independent Craig Garland is looking like overtaking the Libs for the final seat in Braddon. If other numbers go as predicted this would mean the Libs would need C&S from at least one independent to govern, not just JLN. This may cause problems given that none of them are naturally Lib friendly. Quite, in no particular order: Garland - Seems fairly greenish (if categorisable) apart from some controversy over his views on Covid. O’Byrne - Former leader of Labor, part of the Left faction. May be offering supply, can’t exactly see him being a reliable vote on policy. Johnston - Offering supply for stable government. Also said she would still vote against any policy she disagrees with. Left of Labor so make that work? |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
|
Post by jamie on Apr 6, 2024 9:10:38 GMT
Final result:
Lib - 14
Lab - 10
Green - 5
JLN - 3
Ind - 3
Liberals need at least 1 independent in addition to the Jacqui Lambie network for a majority. They will get this is confidence and supply but it’s not clear much else on anything controversial. Given 17/35 are pretty unambiguously left of centre, and a further 4 are vaguely centrist (for sake of argument including Garland), it’s not an easy path to stability.
|
|
|
|
Post by eastmidlandsright on Apr 6, 2024 10:48:48 GMT
Final result: Lib - 14 Lab - 10 Green - 5 JLN - 3 Ind - 3 Liberals need at least 1 independent in addition to the Jacqui Lambie network for a majority. They will get this is confidence and supply but it’s not clear much else on anything controversial. Given 17/35 are pretty unambiguously left of centre, and a further 4 are vaguely centrist (for sake of argument including Garland), it’s not an easy path to stability. There is a very easy path to stability and that is a government that doesn't attempt to do anything controversial. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Apr 6, 2024 12:50:02 GMT
Final result: Lib - 14 Lab - 10 Green - 5 JLN - 3 Ind - 3 Liberals need at least 1 independent in addition to the Jacqui Lambie network for a majority. They will get this is confidence and supply but it’s not clear much else on anything controversial. Given 17/35 are pretty unambiguously left of centre, and a further 4 are vaguely centrist (for sake of argument including Garland), it’s not an easy path to stability. There is a very easy path to stability and that is a government that doesn't attempt to do anything controversial. As mentioned in the Federal thread the JLN are unpredictable and Lambie has just booted her other Federal Senator for “not being a team player”. In Tasmania there also seems to be personal animosity between them and the Premier; it’s not impossible that the Libs dump Rockcliff on the basis that a fresh face might be more amenable to the Network (although the naked ambition of newly elected Eric Abetz might cause them to hesitate). However if you’re a Liberal in Tasmania wanting stability, and the support of almost the entire Crossbench, commit to pulling State funding for the Macquarie Point stadium; it’s what pushed the two ex-MPs on to the Crossbench and triggered the early election, and polls consistently show a huge majority of Tasmanians want an AFL franchise but think it should be at the existing cricket ground suitably upgraded. |
|
