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Post by markgoodair on Feb 13, 2024 13:42:12 GMT
The one state in Australia where the right still has control. For the time being. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 13, 2024 13:48:46 GMT
And really only because the local ALP messed up big time. The national ALP took it over two years ago so let's see if they put their house in order.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 13, 2024 15:28:07 GMT
And really only because the local ALP messed up big time. The national ALP took it over two years ago so let's see if they put their house in order. Incredibly factional, in a way our Labour could only dream of. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Feb 13, 2024 15:29:59 GMT
Oh, and Jacqui Lambie is polling 20%. Anything like that in an election and banter will ensue.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 14, 2024 0:37:42 GMT
And really only because the local ALP messed up big time. The national ALP took it over two years ago so let's see if they put their house in order. Incredibly factional, in a way our Labour could only dream of. Australian Labor (and Liberals, really) are already very factional by international standards, so, if it was too much for them... Note than UK Labour is not immune to one of their main problem, i.e. unelected staffers leaking to undermine Shadow Cabinet members they do not like. |
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 1, 2024 8:11:52 GMT
This year's Tasmanian election will see the number of seats will increase from 25 to 35.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2024 0:46:52 GMT
This year's Tasmanian election will see the number of seats will increase from 25 to 35. But as ever, the constituencies remain the same as the federal ones, meaning the Hare quota in each will be much lower. Possibly good news for the state Green Party? This only applies to the lower house in both cases, of course. Uniquely in Tas, the Legislative Council has 15 divisions whose seats are never filled at the same time as general elections to the Assembly. Busy month elsewhere Down Under as Brisbane holds local elections – as does the rest of Queensland, but they're officially non-partisan – plus there's a state by-election due in Dunstan (Adelaide) and an imminent federal one in Dunkley (Melbourne). |
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Post by timmullen on Mar 2, 2024 9:59:09 GMT
Labor have won the Dunkley (Vic) Federal by-election triggered by the death from cancer of Peta Murphy. There’s currently a roughly 3.6% swing to the Liberals, just over half of what they needed. Labor have seen a small rise in their preference vote (which might not survive pre polls) but, as was pointed out in the run up to the election, 10 years ago Dunkley was a safe Liberal seat, it’s seen little or no boundary or demographic change, and the swing to Liberal is looking purely due to the absence of One Nation and United Australia Party compared to the last General Election.
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ibfc
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Post by ibfc on Mar 3, 2024 19:36:20 GMT
Labor have won the Dunkley (Vic) Federal by-election triggered by the death from cancer of Peta Murphy. There’s currently a roughly 3.6% swing to the Liberals, just over half of what they needed. Labor have seen a small rise in their preference vote (which might not survive pre polls) but, as was pointed out in the run up to the election, 10 years ago Dunkley was a safe Liberal seat, it’s seen little or no boundary or demographic change, and the swing to Liberal is looking purely due to the absence of One Nation and United Australia Party compared to the last General Election. Actually Dunkley became notionally Labor at the 2019 redistribution. It’s incorrect to say that it has not seen any boundary change over the last 10 years. The preference system means that the absence of any particular party can’t really account for a 2PP swing. The result was anyway dire for the Liberals so I not sure why you need to spin it inaccurately. |
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Post by timmullen on Mar 3, 2024 19:38:22 GMT
Labor have won the Dunkley (Vic) Federal by-election triggered by the death from cancer of Peta Murphy. There’s currently a roughly 3.6% swing to the Liberals, just over half of what they needed. Labor have seen a small rise in their preference vote (which might not survive pre polls) but, as was pointed out in the run up to the election, 10 years ago Dunkley was a safe Liberal seat, it’s seen little or no boundary or demographic change, and the swing to Liberal is looking purely due to the absence of One Nation and United Australia Party compared to the last General Election. Actually Dunkley became notionally Labor at the 2019 redistribution. It’s incorrect to say that it has not seen any boundary change over the last 10 years. Criticisms to Antony Green on the ABC election coverage yesterday morning! |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Mar 15, 2024 10:34:01 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 20, 2024 23:09:18 GMT
The Tasmanian election is only a few days away. The limited polling has the Liberals in the 30s, Labour in the 20s, the Greens in the low teens, Jacqui Lambie around 10%, and Independents/Others around 15%. The chamber is being expanded from 25 to 35 members, which makes it harder for the Liberals to win a majority and easier for smaller parties/independents to win seats.
By party:
Liberals - Notionally on 17 (perhaps 18), on course for about 15 seats.
Labor - Notionally on 11, on course for 10 or 11 seats.
Greens - Notionally on 4, likely to get 4 seats.
Jacqui Lambie - Notionally on 0 (didn’t run last time), will be hoping for 3 (maybe 4) seats.
Independents - Notionally on 3 (perhaps 2), the incumbent will be re-elected and another will very likely join her, up to 5 potentially*
*Incumbent is left/progressive, notionally there would be an ex-Liberal speaker (think Bercow) and probably an eccentric greenish fisherman, 2 right wing Liberal incumbents turned independents, and the former Labor leader (sexual harassment allegations including from incumbent indie’s sister).
The Liberals realistically want a majority with the ex-Liberal incumbent independents. Labor would prefer a majority with the Jacqui Lambie Network and some of the independents (not the ex-Liberal incumbents or their ex-leader). If neither of these happens then it’s hard to predict the outcome. The Liberals want stable government which Jacqui Lambie would struggle to guarantee given the policy differences and historic instability, but it’s very unusual in the Australian context for a party to cobble together a coalition of independents/minor parties when so far away from a majority like Labor might have to.
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 23, 2024 9:21:49 GMT
Tasmania has elected for a hung parliament with the Liberals as the largest party.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2024 9:27:50 GMT
The polls look fairly accurate, though interestingly a lot of the big names independents are underperforming expectations, especially the incumbent Liberal defectors.
Jacqui Lambie, who looks likely to hold the balance of power, called the Liberal government “crap” and seems genuinely pissed off at the negative campaign they subjected her party to (including making a look-a-like website), so the presumption the Liberals must govern as the clearly largest party isn’t a given.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 23, 2024 9:36:26 GMT
The polls look fairly accurate, though interestingly a lot of the big names independents are underperforming expectations, especially the incumbent Liberal defectors. Jacqui Lambie, who looks likely to hold the balance of power, called the Liberal government “crap” and seems genuinely pissed off at the negative campaign they subjected her party to (including making a look-a-like website), so the presumption the Liberals must govern as the clearly largest party isn’t a given. Nationally Jacqui Lambie and her fellow Senator are fairly successful in getting concessions from both sides. One of the questions going forward is whether Jeremy Rockcliff can survive as Liberal leader/Premier and whether his successor has a better relationship, however working against that is the election of former Liberal Senator Eric Abetz, who is basically already pitching for the leadership on the ABC. This is slightly off topic, but the three programmes in this Nemesis series are fascinating viewing (and aren’t particularly complementary to Mr Abetz): |
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Post by strinityhobart on Mar 23, 2024 12:09:17 GMT
Current status quo:
Bass Lib 3 Lab 2 Green 1 JLN 1
Braddon Lib 4 Lab 2 JLN 1
Clark Lib 2 Lab 2 Green 2 Ind 1
Franklin Lib 3 Lab 2 Green 1 Ind 1
Lyons Lib 3 Lab 2 Green 1 JLN 1
Bass/Braddon/Clark those numbers look pretty solid. EDIT: actually Labor have picked up a fair bit in Clark and might be in competition for the second Green seat.
In Franklin there is competition for the final two seats between a second unspecified Green, a third Liberal (incumbent minister Nic Street) and the independent David O'Byrne (previously of Labor, disendorsed by the party).
In Lyons Labor and JLN are in competition for the final seat.
This leaves a very interesting Parliament and certainly not a stable combination of numbers for anyone. Liberals likely best case sees them needing 3 JLN members for a majority, while Labor's best prospect is getting to 18 with confidence from Greens and the 2 independents who are both left leaning.
Overall a poor result for both major parties but Labor will be happier and have a possible shot at government that wasn't widely tipped. Greens have done somewhat better than expectations on seat count and JLN about par, though may suffer from not designating lead candidates or indeed having any apparent strategy at all.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 23, 2024 12:32:06 GMT
It looks like PR will do what it does best and deliver government by a coalition of the losers.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 23, 2024 12:34:42 GMT
Current status quo: Bass Lib 3 Lab 2 Green 1 JLN 1 Braddon Lib 4 Lab 2 JLN 1 Clark Lib 2 Lab 2 Green 2 Ind 1 Franklin Lib 3 Lab 2 Green 1 Ind 1 Lyons Lib 3 Lab 2 Green 1 JLN 1 Bass/Braddon/Clark those numbers look pretty solid. EDIT: actually Labor have picked up a fair bit in Clark and might be in competition for the second Green seat. In Franklin there is competition for the final two seats between a second unspecified Green, a third Liberal (incumbent minister Nic Street) and the independent David O'Byrne (previously of Labor, disendorsed by the party). In Lyons Labor and JLN are in competition for the final seat. I can’t see the Greens beating the Liberals in Franklin. The Green vote is too concentrated in their leader while the Liberal ticket is reasonably well balanced, and I suspect what’s left to count will increase the Liberal lead over the Greens. Labor’s chances in Lyons depends on how well the massive vote for their leader splits, if it ends up well balanced between 2 other candidates then they are well placed (which I’m not sure it will). FWIW in Clark Labor did appallingly last time (everywhere else was status quo) but this time nominated more than 1 serious candidates so have taken a lump out of the 2 credible independents. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 23, 2024 13:02:16 GMT
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Post by timmullen on Mar 23, 2024 13:12:25 GMT
Antony Green’s ABC site (William Bowe doesn’t appear to be breaking the numbers down by candidate elected or possible on The Poll Bludger) has:
Bass
Re-elected: Michael Ferguson (Lib), Michelle O’Rourke (ALP), Janie Finlay (ALP
Elected: Rob Fairs (Lib)
Possible: Cecily Rosol (Tas Greens), Rebekah Pentland (Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN))
Defeated Incumbent: Lara Alexander (Independent incumbent, one of two elected as Liberal who left the Party for the Crossbench essentially triggering the election)
Braddon:
Re-elected: Jeremy Rockcliff (Lib), Anita Dow (ALP), Felix Ellis (Lib), Shane Broad (ALP)
Possible (2 seats): Miriam Beswick (JLN), James Redgrave (JLN), Roger Jaensch (Lib (incumbent)), Giovanna Simpson (Lib)
Clark:
Re-elected: Ella Haddad (ALP), Vica Bayley (Tas Greens), Simon Behrakis (Lib)
Elected: Josh Willie (ALP)
Possible (3 seats): Kristie Johnson (Independent (incumbent)), Madeleine Ogilvie (Lib (incumbent)), Helen Burnet (Tas Greens)
Franklin:
Re-elected: Rosalie Woodruff (Tas Greens), Dean Winter (ALP)
Elected: Eric Abetz (Lib), Jacquie Petrusma Lib)
Possible (2 seats): Nic Street (Lib (incumbent)), Meg Brown (ALP), David O’Byrne (Independent incumbent - former ALP minister, Trussesque ALP leader before being expelled from the Party over allegations of inappropriate sexual conduct when a union secretary)
Lyons:
Re-elected: Rebecca White (ALP), Guy Barnett (Lib), Mark Shelton (Lib)
Elected: Jane Howlett (Lib)
Possible (2 seats): Tabatha Badger (Tas Greens), Jen Butler (ALP incumbent)
Defeated: John Tucker (Independent incumbent - see Lara Alexander in Bass)
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