jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054 
|
Post by jamie on Apr 1, 2023 12:34:39 GMT
Interesting that the Aston pre-polls have not had a surprisingly weak swing to Labor given the result in NSW. Labor have got a 6% swing on polling day booths, and a slightly larger 6.5% on pre-polls. Postals will be interesting to see.
|
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Apr 1, 2023 20:46:05 GMT
This actually isn't that rare in the UK, and of course the Democrats in the US also pulled this off last year
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Apr 1, 2023 21:10:48 GMT
This actually isn't that rare in the UK, and of course the Democrats in the US also pulled this off last year And the circumstances of the 1920 Kalgoorlie by election were somewhat unusual. |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
|
Post by jamie on Apr 1, 2023 23:33:00 GMT
Most of the Aston postals are in and were ‘only’ a 3.5% swing, so it’s now 53.7% Labor, which I’d guess will drift down slightly to about 53.5% when the final votes are counted.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Apr 19, 2023 13:15:13 GMT
The New South Wales Legislative Council has finished counting. No candidate was overtaken on preferences.
The results are:
Labor: 8 + 7 continuing (+1)
Coalition: 7 + 8 continuing (-2)
(Liberals: 5 + 5 (-1))
(Nationals: 2 + 3 (-1))
Greens: 2 + 2 (-) (ignoring a defector who did not defend their seat)
One Nation: 1 + 2 (+1)
Shooters Fishers and Farmers: 1 + 1 (-)
Legalise Cannabis: 1 + 1 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 1 + 0 (+1)
Animal Justice: 0 + 1 (-1)
[Christian Democrats/Group G Independents: 0 + 0 (-1)]
The Christian Democrats were dissolved last year. Fred Nile bowed out as a paper candidate making up the minimum two required for a group column for his wife's unsuccessful attempt as an Independent; this group was one of many lacking the minimum 15 candidates required for an Above The Line box and so could only get Below The Line votes.
The other oddity of the election was Mark Latham resigning his existing continuing seat to get a "renewed mandate" at the head of One Nation's ticket but he failed to get enough votes for a second member.
The upper house as a whole is split evenly between the right and left (which will make the choice of presiding officer interesting as this will remove one deliberative vote) but there's quite a mix of small parties for Labor to deal with to get to 21 votes.
|
|
|
|
Post by rcronald on Apr 19, 2023 13:52:12 GMT
The New South Wales Legislative Council has finished counting. No candidate was overtaken on preferences. The results are: Labor: 8 + 7 continuing (+1) Coalition: 7 + 8 continuing (-2) (Liberals: 5 + 5 (-1)) (Nationals: 2 + 3 (-1)) Greens: 2 + 2 (-) (ignoring a defector who did not defend their seat) One Nation: 1 + 2 (+1) Shooters Fishers and Farmers: 1 + 1 (-) Animal Justice: 0 + 1 (-1) Legalise Cannabis: 0 + 1 (+1) Liberal Democrats: 1 + 0 (+1) [Christian Democrats/Group G Independents: 0 + 0 (-1)] The Christian Democrats were dissolved last year. Fred Nile bowed out as a paper candidate making up the minimum two required for a group column for his wife's unsuccessful attempt as an Independent; this group was one of many lacking the minimum 15 candidates required for an Above The Line box and so could only get Below The Line votes. The other oddity of the election was Mark Latham resigning his existing continuing seat to get a "renewed mandate" at the head of One Nation's ticket but he failed to get enough votes for a second member. The upper house as a whole is split evenly between the right and left (which will make the choice of presiding officer interesting as this will remove one deliberative vote) but there's quite a mix of small parties for Labor to deal with to get to 21 votes. Right of centre:21 Coalition-15 One Nation-3 Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers (not 100% sure I'll call them right wing) -2 Liberal Democrats-1 Left of Centre:21 Labor-15 Greens-4 Animal Justice-1 Cannabis-1 |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 19, 2023 13:55:45 GMT
Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers (not 100% sure I'll call them right wing) -2 Shooters at least are normally pretty right wing.... |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
|
Post by jamie on Apr 19, 2023 14:09:57 GMT
Right of centre:21 Coalition-15 One Nation-3 Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers (not 100% sure I'll call them right wing) -2 Liberal Democrats-1 Left of Centre:21 Labor-15 Greens-4 Animal Justice-1 Cannabis-1 As you alluded to, SFF are the most likely party to get legislation over the line. They have a decent relationship with Labor and could vote for many policies that Labor want to get passed (while more ‘reactionary’, they are in practice largely more centrist than the Nationals). Getting SFF and all but 1 of Animal Justice/Legalise Cannabis to vote for a bill may be challenging at times, but it’s clearly the easiest route (and it’s not like NSW Labor are the vanguard of ultra left-liberalism). The Liberal Democrats are very right wing, and One Nation are led by Labor rejects who will probably just vote against everything. |
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,054
|
Post by jamie on Apr 19, 2023 14:15:28 GMT
Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers (not 100% sure I'll call them right wing) -2 Shooters at least are normally pretty right wing.... In NSW they’re very anti-National and focus a lot on rural services/investment. They’re not even that socially conservative and have no expectation that they’re going to get gun laws significantly relaxed. It’s more right wing in theory (and the members/voters will have a lot of crossover with One Nation etc), but the people running the party want it to be a catch-all, populist regional interests party. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2023 7:30:43 GMT
Labor Premier Mark McGowan has announced his resignation and retirement from politics effective from Friday.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,427
|
Post by iain on May 29, 2023 7:40:52 GMT
That’s come from nowhere?
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2023 7:45:04 GMT
That’s come from nowhere? Apparently there have been a few rumours locally as he and his wife have been spotted property hunting outside his electorate. It was also thought he might go at some point term as he’s bequeathing such a large majority in the parliament and was unlikely to do another full term after this. |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
|
Post by Khunanup on May 29, 2023 12:04:52 GMT
Labor Premier Mark McGowan has announced his resignation and retirement from politics effective from Friday. Premier of where? |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
|
Post by cogload on May 29, 2023 12:19:43 GMT
Labor Premier Mark McGowan has announced his resignation and retirement from politics effective from Friday. Premier of where? Western Australia |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 29, 2023 12:32:00 GMT
Given that there are only six of them, plus two Chief Ministers, you’d think somebody on the Australian elections (state/territory/local/by-elections) thread would have noticed the guy who won the biggest State victory in the country’s history a little over two years ago wouldn’t you. 🙄 |
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
|
Post by cogload on May 29, 2023 12:42:57 GMT
Given that there are only six of them, plus two Chief Ministers, you’d think somebody on the Australian elections (state/territory/local/by-elections) thread would have noticed the guy who won the biggest State victory in the country’s history a little over two years ago wouldn’t you. 🙄 Now now. The poster concerned does work nights so sometimes the brain requires an extra strong brew before it kicks in and you hit the send button before that happens. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on May 30, 2023 23:29:56 GMT
From The Australian newspaper:
“Long-serving WA Labor deputy Roger Cook will become the state’s next premier after an extraordinary day of backroom dealings.
Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson appeared to have all but locked up the top job earlier on Tuesday, after the influential United Workers Union-backed MPs endorsed her over another of their own in Mr Cook. But a sensational split in the party’s left faction turned the race on its head. A meeting of Labor MPs aligned with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union on Tuesday afternoon unanimously decided to back Mr Cook instead of Ms Sanderson”.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 15, 2023 10:31:02 GMT
The LNP have seemingly retained the Federal seat of Fadden in Queensland following the retirement of former Coalition Minister Stuart Robert. Sitting on a 10.6% margin their new candidate, Gold Coast councillor, Cameron Caldwell, has a 2.4% projected swing in his favour. (Worth noting that the LNP have chucked a shedload of money at the election, more than double the ALP’s spend, and the national ALP intended to sit the by-election out but were persuaded by the State branches to run because they hold a couple of State Parliament seats which are competitive next year).
|
|
|
|
Post by markgoodair on Feb 13, 2024 13:15:55 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 13, 2024 13:35:13 GMT
The one state in Australia where the right still has control.
|
|
