jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 30, 2023 19:26:06 GMT
The 'our beloved local sex offender' phenomenon is a curious thing isn't it. Well, he’s only been charged, and I’d like to think 45% of voters would not have elected him had the allegations been publicly conclusive. Certainly, I can’t imagine his current narrow victory would have been achievable in such a scenario. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 30, 2023 19:34:36 GMT
Rather impressive that he managed to win the seat! Ward was known to be incredibly popular (he got a swing to him in both 2015 and 2019 despite a collective 12% statewide swing to Labor), but for his personal popularity to outweigh the serious criminal allegations is very impressive (another Liberal candidate would very likely have lost). Actually another Liberal candidate did lose, an incumbent who had been “deselected” in her electorate was switched at the last minute to little or no avail. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 30, 2023 21:09:44 GMT
The 'our beloved local sex offender' phenomenon is a curious thing isn't it. There's just been a minor change in the law - the Local Government (Disqualification) Act 2022 - which disqualifies anyone on the Sex Offenders register from being a councillor or elected Mayor. It came into effect on 28 June last year but I don't recall any members of principal authorities being disqualified. Being on the register isn't exactly a big vote-winner. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 30, 2023 21:11:00 GMT
The 'our beloved local sex offender' phenomenon is a curious thing isn't it. Works in Rochdale. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 30, 2023 23:32:52 GMT
...which disqualifies anyone on the Sex Offenders register from being a councillor or elected Mayor. It came into effect on 28 June last year but I don't recall any members of principal authorities being disqualified. Being on the register isn't exactly a big vote-winner. Mind you there's at least one councillor on a principal local authority who has been on it before, i.e. the extremely charming Lee Wanger in Stoke. |
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Mar 31, 2023 1:05:06 GMT
...which disqualifies anyone on the Sex Offenders register from being a councillor or elected Mayor. It came into effect on 28 June last year but I don't recall any members of principal authorities being disqualified. Being on the register isn't exactly a big vote-winner. Mind you there's at least one councillor on a principal local authority who has been on it before, i.e. the extremely charming Lee Wanger in Stoke. Is it still the case that if you are one day older than your girlfriend and have sex with her the day before her 16th birthday, you end up on the register? |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 31, 2023 6:10:20 GMT
...which disqualifies anyone on the Sex Offenders register from being a councillor or elected Mayor. It came into effect on 28 June last year but I don't recall any members of principal authorities being disqualified. Being on the register isn't exactly a big vote-winner. Mind you there's at least one councillor on a principal local authority who has been on it before, i.e. the extremely charming Lee Wanger in Stoke. And been re-elected at least once since. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 1, 2023 8:50:00 GMT
Labor looks to have won 45 seats in NSW i.e. not a majority. Ryde is just about winnable with the last few votes and a counting error, but it’s very likely a Liberal hold.
In better news for Labor, the federal Aston by-election is looking good on the initial polling booths. A government gaining a seat at a by-election is almost unheard of in Australian politics (although it’s more of a coincidence than a rule, the average historical swing is only 1.2% to the opposition).
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Post by rcronald on Apr 1, 2023 8:58:26 GMT
Labor looks to have won 45 seats in NSW i.e. not a majority. Ryde is just about winnable with the last few votes and a counting error, but it’s very likely a Liberal hold. In better news for Labor, the federal Aston by-election is looking good on the initial polling booths. A government gaining a seat at a by-election is almost unheard of in Australian politics (although it’s more of a coincidence than a rule, the average historical swing is only 1.2% to the opposition). Increasingly looking like Dominic Perrottet resigned the party leadership a bit too early… |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 1, 2023 9:03:03 GMT
Labor looks to have won 45 seats in NSW i.e. not a majority. Ryde is just about winnable with the last few votes and a counting error, but it’s very likely a Liberal hold. Increasingly looking like Dominic Perrottet resigned the party leadership a bit too early… Well, he did lose the election and the LNP were far away enough from a majority that they weren’t going to govern. Still, it’s not the battering it looked like on election night and polling suggested that Perrottet was actually reasonably popular (but Minns, insofar as people care about opposition leaders, was very popular). It also doesn’t look like they have anybody better ready to take over. |
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Post by rcronald on Apr 1, 2023 9:11:09 GMT
Increasingly looking like Dominic Perrottet resigned the party leadership a bit too early… Well, he did lose the election and the LNP were far away enough from a majority that they weren’t going to govern. Still, it’s not the battering it looked like on election night and polling suggested that Perrottet was actually reasonably popular (but Minns, insofar as people care about opposition leaders, was very popular). It also doesn’t look like they have anybody better ready to take over. Yes, they should be careful to not sleepwalk into a NSW version of Peter Dutton (who I personally like, but is unpopular and unelectable for obvious reasons). The election was not winnable from the beginning, with Labor having a popular moderate leader, the coalition battered by corruption and mistakes made by previous administrations, and dysfunctional party machinery, according to former Premier Mike Baird. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2023 9:21:01 GMT
Two Antony Green calls: NSW will be minority Labor government but Federally Labor has won the Aston by-election in Victoria to increase their majority in the House of Representatives.
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Post by rcronald on Apr 1, 2023 9:23:44 GMT
Two Antony Green calls: NSW will be minority Labor government but Federally Labor has won the Aston by-election in Victoria to increase their majority in the House of Representatives. Surely there is going to be a leadership spill against Dutton? |
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 1, 2023 10:43:51 GMT
Two Antony Green calls: NSW will be minority Labor government but Federally Labor has won the Aston by-election in Victoria to increase their majority in the House of Representatives. And won the by-election by quite a decent margin too. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2023 10:59:32 GMT
Two Antony Green calls: NSW will be minority Labor government but Federally Labor has won the Aston by-election in Victoria to increase their majority in the House of Representatives. Surely there is going to be a leadership spill against Dutton? My suspicion is Dutton is safe, lack of obvious successor being one factor (had Josh Frydenberg been in the Parliament I suspect if he wasn’t already leader he would be by Monday) but I think they’ll stick with him as a potential sacrificial lamb at the Voice referendum; hero if there’s a no vote, which comes close to fatally undermining Albanese, villain if he loses to be replaced, but don’t sacrifice two leaders In seven or so months. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 1, 2023 11:20:59 GMT
Two seats short of a majority is a bit harsh on NSW Labor given the 2-party split.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2023 11:25:38 GMT
Two seats short of a majority is a bit harsh on NSW Labor given the 2-party split. It looks like Prepolls and Postals are returning to their pre-pandemic Coalition favour as more people return to on the day voting, but also the Optional Preference Voting (effectively turning your ballot into FPTP) has hurt the Liberals less than it might because of One Nation’s underperformance. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 1, 2023 12:20:05 GMT
Two seats short of a majority is a bit harsh on NSW Labor given the 2-party split. Not really, they have easily finished ahead of the Coalition (the relevant metric when looking at 2PP). Their first preference vote was pretty anaemic, and the crossbench has grown accordingly. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 1, 2023 12:22:56 GMT
Two seats short of a majority is a bit harsh on NSW Labor given the 2-party split. It’s 50-51 seats on 2PP, but 5-6 of those seats have independents or Greens holding them (depends how you categorise Ward in Kiama). Not too great for a 53% 2PP, but not a very fragile hypothetical majority either. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 1, 2023 12:31:59 GMT
the crossbench has grown accordingly. It’s only grown by three in the lower House yes? The Liberal standing as a may or may not be a Teal in Wollondilly, the expelled Liberal incumbent in Kiama, and the apparently genuine Independent in Wakehurst? |
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