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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 27, 2023 5:33:12 GMT
Went down to London to meet an old university friend over from Australia. He's in Balmain, voted Green, but thought that Labor were winning the seat. ABC has the Greens ahead but not by much, and with only half the votes counted. His view is that the Liberals and Labor are equally conservative, and there's next to no difference between them in policy terms. Is his name ParramattaMike? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Mar 27, 2023 7:48:24 GMT
Went down to London to meet an old university friend over from Australia. He's in Balmain, voted Green, but thought that Labor were winning the seat. ABC has the Greens ahead but not by much, and with only half the votes counted. His view is that the Liberals and Labor are equally conservative, and there's next to no difference between them in policy terms. Is his name ParramattaMike? Given it's the other side of the globe, does he rant irrationally about a change of government just being a change of the name below the door? |
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Post by rcronald on Mar 27, 2023 8:13:12 GMT
It is looking increasingly likely that the Teals lost in every North Shore seat (Regan is not a Teal and seems to be somewhat to the right of them).
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 27, 2023 8:28:36 GMT
Is his name ParramattaMike? Given it's the other side of the globe, does he rant irrationally about a change of government just being a change of the name below the door? My friend is of course far too civilized and well educated to rant about anything. And like some (but not all) participants on this site can argue his case quoting chapter and verse. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 27, 2023 9:08:08 GMT
The Labor majority call has been rescinded by all news organizations. A majority is still likely, but the Liberals are leading (by 0.1%) in a seat that was called for Labor (Terrigal) and Labor is only leading by 0.2% in Ryde (which was clearly called way too early). Yep, the little early vote that was counted on election night looked surprisingly Coalition, but the counting today confirmed it. Anybody that called a majority shouldn’t have, as there was still enough in doubt that Labor could have fallen just short. |
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Post by rcronald on Mar 27, 2023 9:12:40 GMT
The Labor majority call has been rescinded by all news organizations. A majority is still likely, but the Liberals are leading (by 0.1%) in a seat that was called for Labor (Terrigal) and Labor is only leading by 0.2% in Ryde (which was clearly called way too early). Yep, the little early vote that was counted on election night looked surprisingly Coalition, but the counting today confirmed it. Anybody that called a majority shouldn’t have, as there was still enough in doubt that Labor could have fallen just short. The Pro-Labor swing was very inefficient. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 27, 2023 11:14:12 GMT
FFS what a farce.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 27, 2023 12:05:52 GMT
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Post by rcronald on Mar 27, 2023 12:11:50 GMT
Worst case scenario for Labor is losing Ryde, and then they'll have 55 seats. I would also note that Green is confident that the Coalition is going to hold Pittwater. So 0 Teal seats in the North Shore. |
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Post by jamie on Mar 27, 2023 16:56:56 GMT
Having a proper look at the 14 seats that were left ‘in doubt’ after election night:
Balmain - Greens currently on 52.2%. Only half counted and with no pre-polls, but Labor have conceded here so presumably think they’re not going to close the gap.
Drummoyne - Liberals currently on 50.7%. There’s a couple of polling booths without 2PP that look moderately weaker for Labor, but the early vote so far actually has a slightly above average swing to Labor, and a pre-poll without 2PP looks like it will also have an above average swing. Liberals favoured, but probably the only seat where the post-election day count hasn’t been bad for Labor so they are still in with a chance.
Goulburn - Liberals currently on 50.5%. The pre-polls here have been nasty for Labor, but the 2 remaining ones are in the areas with the biggest swing to Labor and the postal vote swing has been enough so they’re not completely done (but Liberals very clearly favoured).
Holsworthy - Liberals currently on 50.7%. A very confusing count, Labor would win it on the polling booth swing, but the early vote is very variable. Labor are getting a well above average swing on the postals and 1 pre-poll’s primaries, but the other pre-poll (again only primaries) had very little swing despite being in an otherwise swinging area. Liberals favoured, I would presume.
Kiama - Labor currently on 51.2%. Labor would just about win this if the current early voting swings continued, but the remaining pre-poll looks like it will have a very small swing to them so Ward will probably win.
Miranda - Liberals currently on 50.2%. There’s still a few polling booths to fully count (including 2 without even primaries) and only 1 pre-poll on primaries, but Labor would need the pre-polls to swing as much as election day which looks incredibly unlikely given the evidence elsewhere.
Oatley - Liberals currently on 51.1%. A very progressed count, Labour’s doing alright on the early vote here so far, but it’s all just a little too weak of a swing for them to win.
Pittwater - Liberals currently on 50.5%. The Independent is doing fine on pre-polls, but awful on postals. Can’t see how she comes from behind when most of what remains is early vote.
Ryde - Labor currently on 50.2%. The pre-polls have put this back into play, but the postals are good for Labor so far. I’d make Labor the favourites, but the swing is variable enough that the Liberals could still hold on.
Terrigal - Liberals currently on 50.1%. What’s left doesn’t look Labor friendly so the Liberal lead should expand.
Upper Hunter - Nationals currently on 52.5%. The swing was variable and the count low enough that looked theoretically winnable for Labor on election night, but in practice it almost certainly will be a Nationals hold with a swing still to them when the early vote is actually tabulated.
Willoughby - Liberals currently on 51.9%. The Independent only got 50.2% on election day votes, so could never withstand the early vote (the postals are awful for her).
Winston Hills - Liberals currently on 51.4%. The pre-polls here have been all over the place while the postal is good for Labor, but Liberal retains still looks very likely.
Wollondilly - Independent currently on 53.2%. The Independent has well exceeded the needed swing on every form of voting, and there’s even a transposition error knocking ~350 votes off her lead in a polling booth.
TLDR - The pre-polls have largely been brutal for Labor and almost everything in the ‘Labor could win it but haven’t definitely’ zone has moved into likely Coalition holds. A Labor majority is still possible (we shouldn’t act with certainty about the composition of the remaining vote, look how well that worked out for people calling these seats on election night), but the Coalition looks to have kept Labor to a minority and fended off a lot of the potential cross benches.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 27, 2023 18:56:01 GMT
Say what you will about the state of governance in this country but at least we can count votes in a timely manner. This nonsense where people still don't know the results days and even weeks after an election is totally unacceptable in a supposedly civilised first world country. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 27, 2023 19:14:18 GMT
Say what you will about the state of governance in this country but at least we can count votes in a timely manner. This nonsense where people still don't know the results days and even weeks after an election is totally unacceptable in a supposedly civilised first world country. Australia is always too slow counting, but this election in particular saw the NSW electoral commission decide to count essentially the election day vote on election night (in some cases less), while counting little to no early voting i.e. about half the vote was uncounted. They stopped counting at 10:30pm and did no counting the day after. They did less than 10% on Monday. My understanding is that they struggled to get the resources needed to conduct an efficient count on the night, and they did rightly prioritise counting competitive electorates, but even allowing for that they should have continued counting on Sunday and counted a more diverse range of ballots on election night so that we got a more representative picture of the result. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Mar 27, 2023 19:25:16 GMT
Say what you will about the state of governance in this country but at least we can count votes in a timely manner. This nonsense where people still don't know the results days and even weeks after an election is totally unacceptable in a supposedly civilised first world country. Quite. In some places in the world the result of the vote is so well known in advance that counting is a mere formality. |
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Post by mrpastelito on Mar 27, 2023 20:27:38 GMT
Say what you will about the state of governance in this country but at least we can count votes in a timely manner. This nonsense where people still don't know the results days and even weeks after an election is totally unacceptable in a supposedly civilised first world country. Quite. In some places in the world the result of the vote is so well known in advance that counting is a mere formality. South Yorkshire? The Valleys? |
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Post by rcronald on Mar 28, 2023 5:26:23 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 30, 2023 10:25:07 GMT
Counting is still ongoing and will be for a few more days at least, but it seems like Labour’s maximum seat number is 46 I.e. 1 short of a majority. The remaining non-postal votes have been weaker for Labor than expected which has removed their small hope of winning a 2nd in doubt seat (unless there is something truly remarkable on the late postal vote). Ryde is the only seat really in doubt. Labor are currently on 50.3%, and this might go up to 50.4% when the absents and provisionals are counted to 2PP. There’s then a few 1000 postal votes to be counted, which are currently 55.7% Liberal but tend to get less Liberal as the count goes on, so it looks very close.
In other news, Mark Latham tweeted (and later deleted) a homophobic comment at a gay member of the state Parliament, which even Pauline Hanson felt the need to publicly condemn (and sounds pissed that he made it and won’t answer her calls).
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 30, 2023 10:39:31 GMT
Worth keeping a longer term eye on Kiama where former Liberal minister Gareth Ward has narrowly held off a challenge from Labor as an Independent. At dissolution he was suspended from the Parliament after being charged with one count of sexual intercourse without consent, three counts of assault with an act of indecency, and one count of common assault on a 17 year old boy. He entered a not guilty plea at Magistrate’s Court on Tuesday.
Incoming Premier Chris Mimms indicated, pre-election, that he would be open to a new motion to suspend, although some constitutional law experts have cast doubt on whether this is possible.
There seemed to be a consensus on election night coverage that Ward only survived because of a strong personal vote, and without him Labor would be strongly favoured in any by-election.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2023 18:49:57 GMT
Worth keeping a longer term eye on Kiama where former Liberal minister Gareth Ward has narrowly held off a challenge from Labor as an Independent. At dissolution he was suspended from the Parliament after being charged with one count of sexual intercourse without consent, three counts of assault with an act of indecency, and one count of common assault on a 17 year old boy. He entered a not guilty plea at Magistrate’s Court on Tuesday. Incoming Premier Chris Mimms indicated, pre-election, that he would be open to a new motion to suspend, although some constitutional law experts have cast doubt on whether this is possible. There seemed to be a consensus on election night coverage that Ward only survived because of a strong personal vote, and without him Labor would be strongly favoured in any by-election. Rather impressive that he managed to win the seat! |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 30, 2023 19:11:35 GMT
Rather impressive that he managed to win the seat! Ward was known to be incredibly popular (he got a swing to him in both 2015 and 2019 despite a collective 12% statewide swing to Labor), but for his personal popularity to outweigh the serious criminal allegations is very impressive (another Liberal candidate would very likely have lost). |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 30, 2023 19:12:55 GMT
The 'our beloved local sex offender' phenomenon is a curious thing isn't it.
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