Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[The Bishop]

ALP now control every state government except for Tasmania.

[jamie]

Mar 25, 2023 10:24:14 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 25, 2023 10:18:28 GMT jamie said:

Michael Regan was endorsed by the teal MPs and his wife worked for one of them, so he’s very much teal-adjacent (even if he the rarest of thing, a male teal!). 

Ironically the next most likely ‘teal’ MP is in Wollondilly, even though she’s an ex-Liberal candidate and founded the local Nationals association, and expressed surprise when Climate 200 contacted her about an endorsement. 

So not an actual Teal? Should also be noted that she’s not from the North Shore like almost all of the Teals.

She’s funded by Climate 200, but otherwise would not have been called a teal (she didn’t identify as one when asked, and was unsuccessfully backed by the then Liberal premier to be their candidate in 2019). Wollondilly isn’t teal territory at all, it’s a regional area with quite a lot of (now open cast) coal mining and massive house building for Sydney commuters. One Nation are on 12% and got 11% last time, one of their best results statewide both times. 

[greenhert]

Mar 24, 2023 16:19:07 GMT iain said:

Balmain is the first time ever the Greens are defending a single-person electorate without an incumbent.

And they are set to retain it.

That said, they fell back considerably in Lismore, one of only a few rural state electorates in Australia where they have significant support.

[jamie]

Mar 25, 2023 12:12:20 GMT greenhert said:

Mar 24, 2023 16:19:07 GMT iain said:

Balmain is the first time ever the Greens are defending a single-person electorate without an incumbent.

They retained it without any problems.

They’ve had a 9% swing against them and it’s close enough that a retain is still in doubt, so “without any problems” is a gross exaggeration. 

[greenhert]

In terms of minor party news, all 3 former Shooters, Farmers & Fishers Party state MPs retained their seats as Independents easily; in each case the replacement SFF party candidates finished a dismal 4th.

[yellowperil]

Mar 25, 2023 12:12:20 GMT greenhert said:

Mar 24, 2023 16:19:07 GMT iain said:

Balmain is the first time ever the Greens are defending a single-person electorate without an incumbent.

They retained it without any problems.

Well if it really was a single person electorate,,,,,,

[timmullen1]

Mar 25, 2023 10:47:51 GMT jamie said:

Mar 25, 2023 10:24:14 GMT rcronald said:

So not an actual Teal? Should also be noted that she’s not from the North Shore like almost all of the Teals.

She’s funded by Climate 200, but otherwise would not have been called a teal (she didn’t identify as one when asked, and was unsuccessfully backed by the then Liberal premier to be their candidate in 2019). Wollondilly isn’t teal territory at all, it’s a regional area with quite a lot of (now open cast) coal mining and massive house building for Sydney commuters. One Nation are on 12% and got 11% last time, one of their best results statewide both times. 

She’s actually stood twice for Liberal preselection in the seat, and, whether correctly or incorrectly, she is being referred to as a Teal. The comparison is very much akin to Dai Li, who defeated Labour’s Kristina Keneally in the Federal election, formerly an active Liberal having applied for preselection, refused to ally herself with the Teals during the campaign, but basically caucuses with them in the Parliament.

[andrewteale]

Mar 25, 2023 12:19:24 GMT yellowperil said:

Mar 25, 2023 12:12:20 GMT greenhert said:

They retained it without any problems.

Well if it really was a single person electorate,,,,,,

One man one vote.

[rcronald]

Mar 25, 2023 12:20:41 GMT timmullen1 said:

Mar 25, 2023 10:47:51 GMT jamie said:

She’s funded by Climate 200, but otherwise would not have been called a teal (she didn’t identify as one when asked, and was unsuccessfully backed by the then Liberal premier to be their candidate in 2019). Wollondilly isn’t teal territory at all, it’s a regional area with quite a lot of (now open cast) coal mining and massive house building for Sydney commuters. One Nation are on 12% and got 11% last time, one of their best results statewide both times. 

She’s actually stood twice for Liberal preselection in the seat, and, whether correctly or incorrectly, she is being referred to as a Teal. The comparison is very much akin to Dai Li, who defeated Labour’s Kristina Keneally in the Federal election, formerly an active Liberal having applied for preselection, refused to ally herself with the Teals during the campaign, but basically caucuses with them in the Parliament.

Li run in a safe and socially conservative Labour seat and didn’t vote for the climate change bill. She’s hardly a Teal.

[gwynthegriff]

Mar 25, 2023 12:19:24 GMT yellowperil said:

Mar 25, 2023 12:12:20 GMT greenhert said:

They retained it without any problems.

Well if it really was a single person electorate,,,,,,

Another Dunny-on-the-Wold ?

[timmullen1]

Mar 25, 2023 12:37:29 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 25, 2023 12:20:41 GMT timmullen1 said:

She’s actually stood twice for Liberal preselection in the seat, and, whether correctly or incorrectly, she is being referred to as a Teal. The comparison is very much akin to Dai Li, who defeated Labour’s Kristina Keneally in the Federal election, formerly an active Liberal having applied for preselection, refused to ally herself with the Teals during the campaign, but basically caucuses with them in the Parliament.

Li run in a safe and socially conservative Labour seat and didn’t vote for the climate change bill. She’s hardly a Teal.

They all ran in what were thought to be socially conservative electorates. On the Climate Change Bill, of the two votes listed on the Australian version of theyworkforyou the Teal’s seemed split on the first, and she and the others voted with the Government on the second.

[jamie]

The Legislative Council looks a bit of a surprise (though like I said, the low quota means almost anything can happen). With 33% counted, the left has about 12.5 quotas and the right about 9.5 quotas. Labor has surged 9.6% on the current count which ironically hurts the broader left. If this continues, both they and the Greens will have little surplus for Animal Justice, who really need it on 0.47 of a quota to secure the left the 12th seat. It would be better for the final Labor candidate to stay in the count under a quota as they would be close enough to win anyways, with some of their voters going to parties on around 0.5 of a quota. The LNP has 0.43 of a spare quota, which I expect will go up on later counting and do well on preferences, and even if they are eliminated you have the Shooters on 0.67 and the LDP on 0.73 (who the LNP recommended preferences to). Very surprised at the latter, as they got less than half an equivalent quota on the 2022 Senate ballot and they had a very bad ballot position right next to the LNP this election (but it retrospect maybe they’ve got a lot of the UAP vote). The One Nation vote is currently down, and without a dramatic change will see the Labor lower House MP who defected to them for careerist purposes defeated (and ironically it’s Mark Latham’s fault, as he resigned his 8 years term mid way through so he could lead the ticket and hopefully get 2 seats). 

Edit - Just realised I missed out a seat, so Animal Justice are still in the game but the point stands that the right wing vote is efficiently distributed enough to win 10 seats when on 9.5 collective quotas it would usually struggle to do so after the distribution of preferences. 

[jamie]

Mar 25, 2023 13:50:55 GMT timmullen1 said:

Mar 25, 2023 12:37:29 GMT rcronald said:

Li run in a safe and socially conservative Labour seat and didn’t vote for the climate change bill. She’s hardly a Teal.

They all ran in what were thought to be socially conservative electorates. On the Climate Change Bill, of the two votes listed on the Australian version of theyworkforyou the Teal’s seemed split on the first, and she and the others voted with the Government on the second.

The Teals were not running in socially conservative electorates, they were running in ultra socially progressive electorates which maintain an aversion to the Labor Party and economic leftism. Dai Le represents the Aussie equivalent of a banlieue, full of socially conservative immigrants who naturally tend to Labor. She publicly refused to support the Climate Change Bill because she thought it would harm working class people, hardly a Teal position. 

[rcronald]

Mar 25, 2023 14:07:10 GMT jamie said:

The Legislative Council looks a bit of a surprise (though like I said, the low quota means almost anything can happen). With 33% counted, the left has about 12.5 quotas and the right about 9.5 quotas. Labor has surged 9.6% on the current count which ironically hurts the broader left. If this continues, both they and the Greens will have little surplus for Animal Justice, who really need it on 0.47 of a quota to secure the left the 12th seat. It would be better for the final Labor candidate to stay in the count under a quota as they would be close enough to win anyways, with some of their voters going to parties on around 0.5 of a quota. The LNP has 0.43 of a spare quota, which I expect will go up on later counting and do well on preferences, and even if they are eliminated you have the Shooters on 0.67 and the LDP on 0.73 (who the LNP recommended preferences to). Very surprised at the latter, as they got less than half an equivalent quota on the 2022 Senate ballot and they had a very bad ballot position right next to the LNP this election (but it retrospect maybe they’ve got a lot of the UAP vote). The One Nation vote is currently down, and without a dramatic change will see the Labor lower House MP who defected to them for careerist purposes defeated (and ironically it’s Mark Latham’s fault, as he resigned his 6 years term mid way through so he could lead the ticket and hopefully get 2 seats). 

Edit - Just realised I missed out a seat, so Animal Justice are still in the game but the point stands that the right wing vote is efficiently distributed enough to win 10 seats when on 9.5 collective quotas it would usually struggle to do so after the distribution of preferences

Mark Latham has to be one of the strangest political characters I have ever seen.

[jamie]

Mar 25, 2023 14:38:08 GMT rcronald said:

Mark Latham has to be one of the strangest political characters I have ever seen.

Absolutely. There are too many incidents to name them all, but by way of example (and relevant to this thread), his biggest impact on the new composition of the legislature is through an altercation he had with an ex-Shooters MP. He was giving a speech in the upper house calling an ex-Shooters lower house MP “divisive” (LOL). She was not allowed to enter the floor itself, but he nonetheless encouraged her to get up and confront him which she tried to do. After being stopped, the leader of the Shooters was unknowingly caught on the mic saying that she should have been “clocked” (assaulted). Ultimately, he retained his leadership which caused the remaining 2 Shooters MPs to quit. Without Latham’s stirring, they would probably have at least 2 MPs and a better upper house vote. 

[rcronald]

Mar 25, 2023 15:08:19 GMT jamie said:

Mar 25, 2023 14:38:08 GMT rcronald said:

Mark Latham has to be one of the strangest political characters I have ever seen.

Absolutely. There are too many incidents to name them all, but by way of example (and relevant to this thread), his biggest impact on the new composition of the legislature is through an altercation he had with an ex-Shooters MP. He was giving a speech in the upper house calling an ex-Shooters lower house MP “divisive” (LOL). She was not allowed to enter the floor itself, but he nonetheless encouraged her to get up and confront him which she tried to do. After being stopped, the leader of the Shooters was unknowingly caught on the mic saying that she should have been “clocked” (assaulted). Ultimately, he retained his leadership which caused the remaining 2 Shooters MPs to quit. Without Latham’s stirring, they would probably have at least 2 MPs and a better upper house vote. 

TBF, the former Shooters MP wasn’t exactly a pleasant person herself from what I know…

[John Chanin]

Went down to London to meet an old university friend over from Australia. He's in Balmain, voted Green, but thought that Labor were winning the seat. ABC has the Greens ahead but not by much, and with only half the votes counted. His view is that the Liberals and Labor are equally conservative, and there's next to no difference between them in policy terms.

[timmullen1]

Mar 25, 2023 19:11:40 GMT John Chanin said:

Went down to London to meet an old university friend over from Australia. He's in Balmain, voted Green, but thought that Labor were winning the seat. ABC has the Greens ahead but not by much, and with only half the votes counted. His view is that the Liberals and Labor are equally conservative, and there's next to no difference between them in policy terms.

According to The Poll Bludger’s result page, Labor are not picking up Liberal preferences; they’ve both picked up 780 preferences, the Greens presumably getting most of Sustainable Australia’s 575 primary votes, but there’s 2703 already exhausted, which is a substantial chunk of the Liberal’s 4698 primary votes. Bowe reckons it’ll finish 51.6-48.4 Green with an 88.2% Green win probability.

[rcronald]

Mar 25, 2023 20:47:50 GMT timmullen1 said:

Mar 25, 2023 19:11:40 GMT John Chanin said:

Went down to London to meet an old university friend over from Australia. He's in Balmain, voted Green, but thought that Labor were winning the seat. ABC has the Greens ahead but not by much, and with only half the votes counted. His view is that the Liberals and Labor are equally conservative, and there's next to no difference between them in policy terms.

According to The Poll Bludger’s result page, Labor are not picking up Liberal preferences; they’ve both picked up 780 preferences, the Greens presumably getting most of Sustainable Australia’s 575 primary votes, but there’s 2703 already exhausted, which is a substantial chunk of the Liberal’s 4698 primary votes. Bowe reckons it’ll finish 51.6-48.4 Green with an 88.2% Green win probability.

Link?

[rcronald]

The Labor majority call has been rescinded by all news organizations.

A majority is still likely, but the Liberals are leading (by 0.1%) in a seat that was called for Labor (Terrigal) and Labor is only leading by 0.2% in Ryde (which was clearly called way too early).