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Post by matureleft on Mar 23, 2023 4:48:31 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 23, 2023 8:07:20 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 24, 2023 10:44:03 GMT
Final Newspoll is 54.5% 2PP to Labor. Will post some comments tomorrow later today for a brief preview of the election.
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 24, 2023 14:53:21 GMT
Final Newspoll is 54.5% 2PP to Labor. Will post some comments tomorrow for a brief preview of the election. It will be a bit late for a preview tomorrow! |
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Post by jamie on Mar 24, 2023 15:00:32 GMT
It will be a bit late for a preview tomorrow! Yeah, I always forget how far ahead Australia is 😂 Will post later today then. |
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Post by jamie on Mar 24, 2023 16:00:26 GMT
My greatly anticipated election preview (thankfully not a day late 😅):
Overall:
There seems to be general agreement that the Coalition cannot win a majority while a Labour majority is difficult to achieve without a clear 2PP lead given the swing needed.
The Coalition campaign has been Western Sydney centric and focused on keeping Labor (+ the Greens) from achieving a majority and minimising the number of independents. They have a good relationship with 2 otherwise left leaning independents which means they hope to hold on if about level with Labor in seat numbers.
Coalition Seats:
They look very vulnerable in ultra-marginal East Hills and Penrith, but federal figures would see them narrowly hold both and they certainly aren’t as gone as their margins would suggest. This is especially the case for Upper Hunter, which has a 0.5% margin but is a lot safer on federal figures and accounting for the decline of the Shooters.
Labor should get a bigger swing in NW Sydney, with Parramatta looking one of the likeliest gains. There’s not been much said about the regions, but I would assume Labor will confirm their by-election gain in Bega and they’ll probably make another gain somewhere.
The Liberals are concerned about Drummoyne and Ryde, 2 inner suburban seats on safer margins (but narrowly Labor federally). There’s also concern that One Nation may screw them over in a ‘should be safe’ outer-suburban seat like Camden.
Kiama deserves a special mention, as the previously very popular Liberal MP has been charged with and suspended from Parliament due to alleged sex crimes. Nonetheless, he supposedly remains pretty popular and the Liberals have surrendered the seat to him or Labor (who won it federally). If the difference between a Labor and Coalition minority government is narrow, then a re-elected Ward being found not-guilty and returning to Parliament in a few months time could throw a spanner in the works.
Labor Seats:
Their leader Chris Minns has only a 0.1% margin in Kogarah, but speculation he could lose seems to have dissipated.
Leppington, a new narrowly Labor seat in rapidly growing SW Sydney, is viewed as in play but I would presume Labor are favoured. Labor look vulnerable in Londonderry (deputy leader) and Port Stephens, but there doesn’t seem much speculation they could actually flip.
Heathcote was narrowly flipped by the redistribution, and looks a likely Labor victory.
Others:
The Teal vote is unclear, though obviously weaker than federally. It’s hard to point to any that are favoured to win (and media sources can’t agree when they do). 5 seats is the upper limit.
The Shooters vote will collapse, and their 2 target seats are not any of the 3 they won in 2019. There has not much been written about the ex-Shooters independents, but from what I can glean it seems one will win, the other will probably win, and the other (the most anti-Nationals one) will probably lose.
The Greens will probably win open Balmain, but Labor are trying hard to regain it. The Labor incumbent is favoured in Lismore, but the seat is notionally now a National win vs the Greens, so any of the 3 could win it. The Greens are hyping South Coast with a local mayor, but they only got 13% last time so it’s more likely they split the left wing vote than actually win.
Legislative Council:
The upper house is currently 22-20 in favour of the right with half the seats up this year. It looks likely there will be an 11-10 split in favour of the left (making it 21-21 overall), though the actual party composition is very unclear owing to the low quota and exhaustion.
The Christian Democratic Party will lose its seat, while the Coalition will lose 1, probably 2 seats. One Nation will definitely gain 1, probably 2. That leaves a likely gain for a left leaning party, most likely Legalise Cannabis. There’s modest potential for a 12-9 split in favour of the left, which could go to half a dozen different parties.
A single right to left flip would mean the government would need to work with parties from the opposite ‘bloc’. This would be easier for Labor than the Coalition (they have a decent relationship with the Shooters). Labor would need a 12-9 split to have an upper house that could actually pass most of the more controversial legislation.
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 24, 2023 16:19:07 GMT
Balmain is the first time ever the Greens are defending a single-person electorate without an incumbent.
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Post by jamie on Mar 24, 2023 17:08:31 GMT
Balmain is the first time ever the Greens are defending a single-person electorate without an incumbent. Yep, and it’s an area where Labor do much better federally (even accounting for the obvious personal vote). They probably won’t win it, but an electorate that almost stuck with Labor in 2011 of all years should not be unwinnable on a good night. |
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Post by jamie on Mar 25, 2023 8:16:25 GMT
With 2% of the vote counted, it’s looking like the Coalition has lost its majority, and probably government. The ABC has the 2PP at 52% for Labor, so unclear whether majority or minority. Very early numbers, but the teals don’t seem to be doing very well.
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Post by rcronald on Mar 25, 2023 8:26:52 GMT
With 2% of the vote counted, it’s looking like the Coalition has lost its majority, and probably government. The ABC has the 2PP at 52% for Labor, so unclear whether majority or minority. Very early numbers, but the teals don’t seem to be doing very well. Not surprised about the Teals not doing very well, the state liberal party is more moderate than the National one (or at least used to be) and I suspect the federal Teal voting record is more left leaning than what the voters expected. |
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Post by andrewteale on Mar 25, 2023 8:27:41 GMT
A quick reminder that the Teals are nothing to do with me.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 25, 2023 8:35:34 GMT
A quick reminder that the Teals are nothing to do with me. I’m sure there’s massive enthusiasm for a Teal style candidate in Bolton! |
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Post by jamie on Mar 25, 2023 8:37:49 GMT
Not surprised about the Teals not doing very well, the state liberal party is more moderate than the National one (or at least used to be) and I suspect the federal Teal voting record is more left leaning than what the voters expected. Some of them are doing about what you would expect given the difference between the federal and state dynamics, but some of them are struggling to even come out ahead of Labor or even the Greens which is not what you would expect (tbf some of them are still in with a chance of winning). |
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Post by rcronald on Mar 25, 2023 8:45:37 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Mar 25, 2023 8:54:44 GMT
ABC are reporting a 6.7% two party preference swing to Labor.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 25, 2023 8:54:50 GMT
Antony Green has called the election for the Labor Party
UPDATE: and now projects Labor majority government.
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Post by rcronald on Mar 25, 2023 9:54:09 GMT
The most successful non-incumbent independent is the non-teal one lol
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 25, 2023 10:06:09 GMT
The most successful non-incumbent independent is the non-teal one lol Maybe not, there’s a Teal in Woollondilly leading by 5.5%, and William Bowe is projecting will finish 51.8-41.2 Independent on 2CP. |
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Post by jamie on Mar 25, 2023 10:18:28 GMT
The most successful non-incumbent independent is the non-teal one lol Michael Regan was endorsed by the teal MPs and his wife worked for one of them, so he’s very much teal-adjacent (even if he the rarest of thing, a male teal!). Ironically the next most likely ‘teal’ MP is in Wollondilly, even though she’s an ex-Liberal candidate and founded the local Nationals association, and expressed surprise when Climate 200 contacted her about an endorsement. |
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Post by rcronald on Mar 25, 2023 10:24:14 GMT
The most successful non-incumbent independent is the non-teal one lol Michael Regan was endorsed by the teal MPs and his wife worked for one of them, so he’s very much teal-adjacent (even if he the rarest of thing, a male teal!). Ironically the next most likely ‘teal’ MP is in Wollondilly, even though she’s an ex-Liberal candidate and founded the local Nationals association, and expressed surprise when Climate 200 contacted her about an endorsement. So not an actual Teal? Should also be noted that she’s not from the North Shore like almost all of the Teals. |
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