Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[timmullen1]

Nov 25, 2022 13:17:26 GMT markgoodair said:

Daniel Andrews' Labor Party is forecast to lose a dozen seats at this Saturday's Victorian state election - and be forced to rely on the Greens to cling to power.

That is the prediction of veteran election analyst Malcolm Mackerras, who says Labor could lose 12 seats at the November 26 election forcing the left-wing Premier into minority government

The last Newspoll (YouGov) published in The Australian today has Andrews’ Labor winning 45-50 seats in the 88 seat Parliament, and, according to William Bowe (aka The Poll Bludger) the Liberals believe they’ve got to win all of their target seats, plus Andrews losing a couple to the Greens, and potentially his own seat to a Teal Independent just to get to hung Parliament territory.

[jamie]

Labor are on about 55% in 2PP in the polls and the Greens are polling only a little bit better than at the last election, I don’t see how that would result in a Labor minority even allowing for less favourable Liberal preferences in Labor-Green marginals.

[markgoodair]

Nov 25, 2022 15:11:35 GMT jamie said:

Labor are on about 55% in 2PP in the polls and the Greens are polling only a little bit better than at the last election, I don’t see how that would result in a Labor minority even allowing for less favourable Liberal preferences in Labor-Green marginals.

Liberals are placing Labor ahead of the Greens for the first time since 2010 on How to Vote cards.

[jamie]

Nov 25, 2022 15:15:32 GMT markgoodair said:

Nov 25, 2022 15:11:35 GMT jamie said:

I don’t see how that would result in a Labor minority even allowing for less favourable Liberal preferences in Labor-Green marginals.

Liberals are placing Labor ahead of the Greens for the first time since 2010 on How to Vote cards.

No it’s the opposite, the Liberals are running a campaign of ‘Labor Last’ which has led them to preference the Greens ahead of Labor. 

[timmullen1]

Nov 25, 2022 15:11:35 GMT jamie said:

Labor are on about 55% in 2PP in the polls and the Greens are polling only a little bit better than at the last election, I don’t see how that would result in a Labor minority even allowing for less favourable Liberal preferences in Labor-Green marginals.

I think there’s a feeling that up to 4 seats, including Andrews’ own, could go to versions of the Teal Independents who damaged the Liberals in the Federal General Election, which just further chips away at Labor’s majority.

[timmullen1]

Antony Green has just called the election for Labor, majority or minority government still up in the air.

[Khunanup]

They've got a majority.

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic/2022/results?filter=all&sort=az

[The Bishop]

Indeed, 51 seats with 9 still to be called - surely at the upper end of expectations.

[timmullen1]

Nov 26, 2022 12:12:54 GMT The Bishop said:

Indeed, 51 seats with 9 still to be called - surely at the upper end of expectations.

Above expectations; it looks like they’ll have no net change - what they’ve lost to the Greens they’re winning off the Liberals. Love the “former Liberal strategist” on the ABC, he’s hit the “I don’t give a shit anymore” phase and suggested the one Liberal gain should be made leader by Tuesday “because she’s obviously better than the current bloody shower”.

[timrollpickering]

At the moment Labor have lost one seat to each of the Liberals, Nationals and Greens and gained two seats from the Liberals whilst the Nationals have gained another two from wiping out Independents. There's seven seats in doubt that mostly look like retains but Hawthorn could see John Pesutto (Liberal) regain his seat - in 2018 he famously learned he'd lost whilst in the ABC studio and gave a very dignified response.

(The Animal Justice candidate in that seat has the unfortunate name of Faith Fuhrer.)

The Teal Independents have made no breakthrough at all.

[andrewteale]

Nov 28, 2022 12:14:16 GMT timrollpickering said:

The Teal Independents have made no breakthrough at all.

There's only so much I can do. Ah well, back to the previews.

[timrollpickering]

Inclusive Gregory vs Weighted Inclusive Gregory vs Gregory vs Random Sampling

[matureleft]

Amazingly with the final results called (minus one deferred contest) Labor has ended up with a net gain of one in Victoria. This in spite of a near 6 per cent fall in first preference votes and a near 3 per cent swing to the Coalition in final preference.

This appears to reflect very poor Labor results in some safe seats together with much stronger performance in the marginals, plus some aversion to the Coalition (particularly the Liberals - the Nationals did rather better) in the preference process.

It does mean that there’ll be a wider field of seeming marginals next time.

[markgoodair]

The New South Wales state election will be held on 25th March.

[iain]

Jan 8, 2023 21:07:07 GMT markgoodair said:

The New South Wales state election will be held on 25th March.

And Labor are up in the polls. If they do win government, that would leave Tasmania as the only state (or territory) run by the coalition.

[jamie]

On the basis of federal trends and the NSW Liberals having a more right wing leadership, you’d expect big Labor gains in the inner suburbs and areas with a significant Chinese population (days before the 2019 election the Labor leader was revealed to have said “Our young children will flee… who are they being replaced with? They are being replaced by young people from typically Asia… foreigners are moving in and taking their jobs”, which went down about as well as you would think). Conversely, there probably won’t be much movement in the Hunter and the Nationals will hope to regain seats from the Shooters in western NSW (the previous 2 Liberal premiers were viewed as very Sydney centric). Overall, the state government seems less popular than it used to be and Albanese is still enjoying a federal honeymoon so Labor ‘should’ be hopeful of victory, but this is the ALP we’re talking about.

It will also be interesting to see the impact of optional preferential voting on the election given the ever decreasing primary vote for the 2 major parties. There’s a few seats in Sydney and the north east of NSW which would be pretty difficult to win on federal voting patterns but the Coalition holds or at least remains competitive in thanks to a split left wing vote. The Teal Independents will struggle greatly to replicate their federal success given they can’t rely on left of centre voters automatically preferencing them ahead of the Liberals, as well as things like stricter donation laws and a less ‘culture wars’ state government. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have imploded with their 3 MPs likely to stand as independents, which under optional preferencing will probably see 3 Nats elected. The only place it can potentially hurt the Coalition is in a few seats in the Hunter/Western Sydney where the One Nation/UAP vote drops off more than the Greens.

[timmullen1]

Jan 8, 2023 22:32:01 GMT jamie said:

On the basis of federal trends and the NSW Liberals having a more right wing leadership, you’d expect big Labor gains in the inner suburbs and areas with a significant Chinese population (days before the 2019 election the Labor leader was revealed to have said “Our young children will flee… who are they being replaced with? They are being replaced by young people from typically Asia… foreigners are moving in and taking their jobs”, which went down about as well as you would think). Conversely, there probably won’t be much movement in the Hunter and the Nationals will hope to regain seats from the Shooters in western NSW (the previous 2 Liberal premiers were viewed as very Sydney centric). Overall, the state government seems less popular than it used to be and Albanese is still enjoying a federal honeymoon so Labor ‘should’ be hopeful of victory, but this is the ALP we’re talking about.

It will also be interesting to see the impact of optional preferential voting on the election given the ever decreasing primary vote for the 2 major parties. There’s a few seats in Sydney and the north east of NSW which would be pretty difficult to win on federal voting patterns but the Coalition holds or at least remains competitive in thanks to a split left wing vote. The Teal Independents will struggle greatly to replicate their federal success given they can’t rely on left of centre voters automatically preferencing them ahead of the Liberals, as well as things like stricter donation laws and a less ‘culture wars’ state government. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have imploded with their 3 MPs likely to stand as independents, which under optional preferencing will probably see 3 Nats elected. The only place it can potentially hurt the Coalition is in a few seats in the Hunter/Western Sydney where the One Nation/UAP vote drops off more than the Greens.

The Liberals may not even be going into the election with their leader, Michael Perrottet, who’s admitted wearing a Nazi uniform to a 21st birthday party.

[Georg Ebner]

Victoria: With the byElec. in Narracan over, the transfers (in %) look like this:


N.B.: Some voted "above...", some "below the line". Different seize of electorate. Some constituencies distributed the votes of several candidates within 1 step and were thus not included.

[Arthur Figgis]

Jan 18, 2023 12:48:27 GMT timmullen1 said:

Jan 8, 2023 22:32:01 GMT jamie said:

On the basis of federal trends and the NSW Liberals having a more right wing leadership, you’d expect big Labor gains in the inner suburbs and areas with a significant Chinese population (days before the 2019 election the Labor leader was revealed to have said “Our young children will flee… who are they being replaced with? They are being replaced by young people from typically Asia… foreigners are moving in and taking their jobs”, which went down about as well as you would think). Conversely, there probably won’t be much movement in the Hunter and the Nationals will hope to regain seats from the Shooters in western NSW (the previous 2 Liberal premiers were viewed as very Sydney centric). Overall, the state government seems less popular than it used to be and Albanese is still enjoying a federal honeymoon so Labor ‘should’ be hopeful of victory, but this is the ALP we’re talking about.

It will also be interesting to see the impact of optional preferential voting on the election given the ever decreasing primary vote for the 2 major parties. There’s a few seats in Sydney and the north east of NSW which would be pretty difficult to win on federal voting patterns but the Coalition holds or at least remains competitive in thanks to a split left wing vote. The Teal Independents will struggle greatly to replicate their federal success given they can’t rely on left of centre voters automatically preferencing them ahead of the Liberals, as well as things like stricter donation laws and a less ‘culture wars’ state government. The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers have imploded with their 3 MPs likely to stand as independents, which under optional preferencing will probably see 3 Nats elected. The only place it can potentially hurt the Coalition is in a few seats in the Hunter/Western Sydney where the One Nation/UAP vote drops off more than the Greens.

The Liberals may not even be going into the election with their leader, Michael Perrottet, who’s admitted wearing a Nazi uniform to a 21st birthday party.

Must be a family thing, as Dominic Perrottet did the same thing as ‘Michael’. Unfortunate coincidence.

[Georg Ebner]

Feb 3, 2023 9:15:43 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Jan 18, 2023 12:48:27 GMT timmullen1 said:

The Liberals may not even be going into the election with their leader, Michael Perrottet, who’s admitted wearing a Nazi uniform to a 21st birthday party.

Must be a family thing, as Dominic Perrottet did the same thing as ‘Michael’. Unfortunate coincidence.

Wasn't there also a British prince, who is presently the darling of the anti-monarchical/traditional/"fascistic" wokies?