Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[timmullen1]

Preliminary results for yesterday’s by-elections after on-the-day counting; these won’t firm up until next weekend as the NSWEC aren’t counting any postal votes until next Saturday.

BEGA: triggered by the resignation of Liberal former Transport Minister Andrew Constance is a Labor gain. With 25.7% counted there’s a 14.1% swing to Labor’s Michael Holland, putting him on 57.1% of the Two Candidate Preferred (2CP) vote.

MONARO: Previously held by National leader and Deputy Premier, John Belisario, the Nationals retain this, but with 40% counted there’s a 6.6% swing to Labor, reducing Nichole Overall’s 2CP share to 55%. (The swing here may be significant as it’s half of the über marginal Labor held Federal seat of Eden-Monaro).

STRATHFIELD: Caused by the resignation of former Labor leader Jodi McKay after a disappointing performance in last year’s Hunter Valley by-election, Labor retain. With 31.1% counted their new candidate Jason Yat-Sen Li has 54.4% of the 2CP, representing a 0.6% swing to the Liberals.

WILLOUGHBY: The seat of ousted Premier Gladys Berejiklian, with 32.7% counted the Liberals are ahead, there’s no official 2CP numbers been released for this electorate, but on Antony Green’s estimates Liberal Tim James leads Independent Larissa Penn 53.1%-46.9%, a swing of 18% to Penn. Labor did not nominate for this seat.

[bridgyoldboy]

Latest Newspoll-YouGov (9-12 Feb)poll has L/NP 34% ALP 41% Gren 8% ONP 3% others 14% 2pp Vote L/NP 45% ALP 55%

[timmullen1]

Final numbers have finally been confirmed for the four by-elections to the NSW Parliament.

BEGA: Michael Holland (Labor) 55.1%
Fiona Kotvojs (Liberal) 44.9%
Swing to Labor 12%
Labor GAIN from Liberal

MONARO: Nichole Overall (National) 55.2%
Bryce Wilson (Labor) 44.8%
Swing to Labor 6.4%
National RETAIN

STRATHFIELD: Jason Yat-Sen Li (Labor) 55.8%
Bridget Sakr (Liberal) 44.2%
Swing to Labor 0.8%
Labor RETAIN

WILLOUGHBY: Tim James (Liberal) 53.3%
Larissa Penn (Independent) 46.7%
Swing to Independent 17.7%
Liberal RETAIN

[timmullen1]

Mar 6, 2022 1:24:45 GMT Andrew_S said:

Why are they having 4 by-elections at the same time? Was there a group resignation or something similar.

Yes, in order:
Bega - Liberal Andrew Constance resigned to contest the Federal seat of Gilmore at May’s Federal General Election;

Monaro - former National leader and Deputy Premier John Barilaro resigned four days after Premier Gladys Berejiklian (of whom more later). Mainly disillusionment with State politics; he’d hoped to contest last year’s Federal by-election in Eden-Monaro but withdrew when the Liberals refused to stand aside. He also threatened to collapse the Coalition over protection of a koala habitat that had been damaged by bushfires.

Strathfield - Labor leader Jodi McKay quit the leadership and the Parliament after Labor’s very poor performance in the Upper Hunter by-election.

Willoughby - Premier Gladys Berejiklian resigned and I’ll let Antony Green give you the gory details: “Berejiklian's resignation relates to her past relationship with former Wagga Wagga MP Daryl Maguire. Berejiklian forced Maguire to resign as MP in late 2018 after ICAC revelations of him soliciting bribes over property developments in Sydney. Phone taps on Maguire revealed his relationship with Berejiklian, which forced her to attend and answer questions at ICAC public hearings. The relationship had been unknown to her family, colleagues and the public and continued after his ejection from parliament and the 2019 election. Berejiklian's public standing was not harmed by the hearings or the findings against Maguire, but there were enough unanswered questions for the ICAC to inquire further into her actions in relation to projects in Wagga Wagga, and also her knowledge of Maguire's business activities. With ICAC hearings set for mid-October, Berejiklian announced that she could not remain as Premier while under investigation and resigned.”

[willpower3]

The factional politics of the Australian Labor Party are fascinating and confusing.

Albanese is a stalwart of the hard left, yet is running as Tony Blair or at least Keir Starmer.

Shorten is a stalwart of the right wing fixing faction, yet ran as Jeremy Corbyn or at least a more radical Ed Miliband.

Albanese was one of the most loyal supporters of Kevin Rudd (another Blairesque figure) whilst Shorten generally favoured Julia Gillard (a member of the party's left).

Also, Gough Whitlam is something of a hero to the the radical left in Australia (much as it exists). He was the original 'moderniser' and did something comparable to the Clause Four thing; he deleted references to socialism in the Labor constitution or something along those lines.

[Sibboleth]

The point is that in the ALP the factional labels have evolved to the logical stage where everyone accepts that they really just denote who you were mates with when you were getting into politics rather than anything with ideological or policy implications. On quite a few issues the British Labour Party is closer to reaching that point than is polite to acknowledge.

[timmullen1]

Next Saturday sees State elections in South Australia where Steven Marshall, who is the first SA Liberal Premier to lead the Party into the next election, will be looking to go one better and become the first to win a second term.

Election previews from Antony Green:

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2022/guide/preview

and William Bowe (aka The Poll Bludger):

www.pollbludger.net/sa2022/Overview.htm?

Also some up-to-date news from the latter:

www.pollbludger.net/2022/03/12/south-australian-election-minus-one-week-3/

[maxque]

Mar 13, 2022 1:50:02 GMT timmullen1 said:

Next Saturday sees State elections in South Australia where Steven Marshall, who is the first SA Liberal Premier to lead the Party into the next election, will be looking to go one better and become the first to win a second term.

Election previews from Antony Green:

www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa/2022/guide/preview

and William Bowe (aka The Poll Bludger):

www.pollbludger.net/sa2022/Overview.htm?

Also some up-to-date news from the latter:

www.pollbludger.net/2022/03/12/south-australian-election-minus-one-week-3/

And it seems YouGov sees an easy Labor win, as they lead 56-44 (41-33 on first preferences).

www.pollbludger.net/2022/03/15/yougov-56-44-to-labor-in-south-australia/

[timmullen1]

Antony Green has called the SA election for Labor; early in the counting but both the Premier and Deputy Premier are struggling to retain their electorates.

[Georg Ebner]

It seems, the Postal&Early-Votes won't be counted before MonDay.

[matureleft]

Pretty clear cut Labor win.
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-20/steven-marshall-steps-down-as-liberal-leader/100925106

[timmullen1]

Mar 20, 2022 7:55:07 GMT matureleft said:

Pretty clear cut Labor win.
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-20/steven-marshall-steps-down-as-liberal-leader/100925106

The Deputy Premier has almost certainly lost his seat to what Antony Green describes as “a Labor leaning Independent” who switched electorates after redistribution. The outgoing Premier is trailing narrowly, but Green expects him to survive on postals and pre-polls.

[Georg Ebner]

SouthAustralia:
Raw votes:

Vote-%:

[Caute: That's the Wikipedia-numbers, so perhaps not final; and strangely the 2022-% minus change-% miss the actual % of last time by partly 2-4%.]

[Georg Ebner]

...and this time i won't make maps - if others intend to, i can send them my EXCEL-table.

[timmullen1]

Just in case there are any discrepancies with Wikipedia, these are the final figures from the Electoral Commission of South Australia.

result.ecsa.sa.gov.au/

Individual electorate numbers can be found by clicking the three horizontal lines in the top left, selecting Electorate Results and further selecting each individual electorate individually.

Results for the Legislative Council remain to be finalised, but the ECSA hope to have them done by the ANZAC Day holiday, which is the 25th!

[markgoodair]

The Premier of Tasmania , Peter Gutwein has resigned from Parliament.

[Georg Ebner]

After their perFormance the SA-Liberals received even from parties like OneNation or FamilyFirst the terrible transfers You would expect:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1GAn2YkYbewaK0hc_Gnwi2CKF0pVlm3kM?usp=sharing

[Georg Ebner]

SouthAustralia, transfers from (top) to (left):

On the right are the % of the %, i.e. for example in all const. together 127,8% were transferred from Labor; to Independents 98.3% (=76.9%) and 29.5% (=23.1%) to the Liberals.
Nota bene: The perCentages of the constituencies were simply added, thus leaving aside the constituencies different numbers of both - eligible & participating - voters.

[markgoodair]

The next Victoria State election is on 26th November.

[markgoodair]

Daniel Andrews' Labor Party is forecast to lose a dozen seats at this Saturday's Victorian state election - and be forced to rely on the Greens to cling to power.

That is the prediction of veteran election analyst Malcolm Mackerras, who says Labor could lose 12 seats at the November 26 election forcing the left-wing Premier into minority government