Australian elections (state/territory/local/by elections)

[Georg Ebner]

[markgoodair]

'Teal-style' Muslim political group to target Labor seats
www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/teal-style-muslim-political-group-to-target-labor-seats-payman/104043742

[rcronald]

Jul 1, 2024 11:22:24 GMT markgoodair said:

'Teal-style' Muslim political group to target Labor seats
www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-01/teal-style-muslim-political-group-to-target-labor-seats-payman/104043742

I won’t underestimate Muslim tribalism/sectarianism again, but I don’t think that a Gaza Indi group is likely to work well under the Australian system.

[Georg Ebner]

The Northern Territory will go to the polls in 0.5 days. En.wikipedia provides only 2 opinionPolls (Nov.&May), which show CLP clearly ahead (inSecurity has been a huge problem), but ALP recovering in May by 10% and Ind. at (kingmakerish?) 22%.

Here are the transfers from last time:

N.b. this is a sum of all constituencies' %, thus it cannot take into acCount their disCrepancies of electors & participants.

[uthacalthing]

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8rxyz1p830o

Labour plan to ban pet crocodiles, Liberals behave like actual liberals

[iain]

Looks like a clear win for the Country Liberal Party on early figures, and maybe a landslide.

[timrollpickering]

Antony Green has just called the election for the CLP.

[timrollpickering]

And the ABC is now projecting Chief Minister Eva Lawler has lost her seat of Drysdale with a massive swing against her.

[timmullen]

Aug 24, 2024 10:09:51 GMT iain said:

Looks like a clear win for the Country Liberal Party on early figures, and maybe a landslide.

William Bowe (aka The Poll Bludger) only has a CLP majority in the +1 to +4 range, so not a landslide by Territory standards and worth keeping in mind they lost a couple of by-elections during the last Parliament.

[timrollpickering]

The ABC is now projecting 16 CLP, 4 Lab, 2 Independent and 3 in doubt. Of the in doubt it's unlikely the CLP will take any and they trail Labor on the conventional 2PP in all seats. They lead on first preferences in Fannie Bay but are likely to lose to whoever of the Greens and Labor come second, the CLP and an Independent are tied on first preferences in Johnston with Labor only 38 votes behind and in Nightcliff former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles is leading on first preferences for Labor but currently only 150 votes separate the CLP, Greens and an Independent so it's not clear what the final two will be.

Labor have retained four bush seats (including their by-election gain of Daly), with some swings towards them, but unless they can win any of the in doubts they've been swept out of Darwin completely.

[timmullen]

Aug 24, 2024 14:07:42 GMT timrollpickering said:

The ABC is now projection 16 CLP, 4 Lab, 2 Independent and 3 in doubt. Of the in doubt it's unlikely the CLP will take any and they trail Labor on the conventional 2PP in all seats. They lead on first preferences in Fannie Bay but are likely to lose to whoever of the Greens and Labor come second, the CLP and an Independent are tied on first preferences in Johnston with Labor only 38 votes behind and in Nightcliff former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles is leading on first preferences for Labor but currently only 150 votes separate the CLP, Greens and an Independent so it's not clear what the final two will be.

Labor have retained four bush seats (including their by-election gain of Daly), with some swings towards them, but unless they can win any of the in doubts they've been swept out of Darwin completely.

I don’t know if you saw but at the end of the ABC coverage Antony Green was giving the ALP Nightcliff, but Natasha Fyles, who was on the panel, was quite pessimistic on the numbers she was getting from her scrutineers.

Bow has got the Greens comfortably in second in Fanny Bay, but not got a 2CP between them and the CLP.

[timrollpickering]

The Green/Labor gap in Fannie Bay is down to 68 votes/1.8% - the Poll Bludger is projecting this to narrow even further and the Greens to make it to the final two but says it could go either way. The seat has the second highest level of postal vote applications - 8.0% behind only Port Darwin with 8.6%. I'm not sure how good/bad the NT Greens do on postals.

In Johnston the CLP is pulling ahead on first preferences but more critically the Independent is now leading Labor by 162 votes/4.6% which should survive the traditional fallback on postals. The Greens have got 297 votes/8.4% but are likely to favour the Independent over Labor (and that's the recommendation on their How To Vote card).

Nightcliff has an outstanding Early Voting Centre and has not updated since my previous post. It depends heavily on who goes out at what stage and how far voters follow the How To Vote cards.

Independent George Mamouzellos put the CLP then May then the Greens then Labor. However he's on 2.1%.

Independent Mililma May put the Greens then Labor then the CLP then Mamouzellos.

The Greens put May then Labor then the CLP then Mamouzellos.

The CLP put Mamouzellos then May then Labor then the Greens.

Labor put the Greens then May then Mamouzellos then the CLP.

[timmullen]

Aug 24, 2024 18:56:33 GMT timrollpickering said:

The Green/Labor gap in Fannie Bay is down to 68 votes/1.8% - the Poll Bludger is projecting this to narrow even further and the Greens to make it to the final two but says it could go either way. The seat has the second highest level of postal vote applications - 8.0% behind only Port Darwin with 8.6%. I'm not sure how good/bad the NT Greens do on postals.

In Johnston the CLP is pulling ahead on first preferences but more critically the Independent is now leading Labor by 162 votes/4.6% which should survive the traditional fallback on postals. The Greens have got 297 votes/8.4% but are likely to favour the Independent over Labor (and that's the recommendation on their How To Vote card).

Nightcliff has an outstanding Early Voting Centre and has not updated since my previous post. It depends heavily on who goes out at what stage and how far voters follow the How To Vote cards.

Independent George Mamouzellos put the CLP then May then the Greens then Labor. However he's on 2.1%.

Independent Mililma May put the Greens then Labor then the CLP then Mamouzellos.

The Greens put May then Labor then the CLP then Mamouzellos.

The CLP put Mamouzellos then May then Labor then the Greens.

Labor put the Greens then May then Mamouzellos then the CLP.

Antony Green’s very fond of pointing out that there’s usually a 40% divergence from Green HTV cards which overwhelmingly benefits Labor.

Port Darwin may be hard to anticipate as this is the biggest outing for the NT Greens, but is their second run in that electorate. Traditionally in other parts of the country they don’t do as well on postals and early votes as they lack organisational resources, but it is a closing gap.

In Johnston I don’t know the background of the Independent but there seems to be a direct swap with the Greens from four years ago when the Greens almost pushed into second ahead of the CLP (although the Territory Alliance may have damaged the CLP vote) and the Independent was a very distant fifth place.

[timrollpickering]

Aug 24, 2024 19:42:39 GMT timmullen said:

Aug 24, 2024 18:56:33 GMT timrollpickering said:

The Green/Labor gap in Fannie Bay is down to 68 votes/1.8% - the Poll Bludger is projecting this to narrow even further and the Greens to make it to the final two but says it could go either way. The seat has the second highest level of postal vote applications - 8.0% behind only Port Darwin with 8.6%. I'm not sure how good/bad the NT Greens do on postals.

In Johnston the CLP is pulling ahead on first preferences but more critically the Independent is now leading Labor by 162 votes/4.6% which should survive the traditional fallback on postals. The Greens have got 297 votes/8.4% but are likely to favour the Independent over Labor (and that's the recommendation on their How To Vote card).

Nightcliff has an outstanding Early Voting Centre and has not updated since my previous post. It depends heavily on who goes out at what stage and how far voters follow the How To Vote cards.

Antony Green’s very fond of pointing out that there’s usually a 40% divergence from Green HTV cards which overwhelmingly benefits Labor.

That seems to be a mixture of the Green vote being disproportionately interested in politics and disinclined to follow an HTV along with, possibly, less access to them, as they're more likely to vote outside the district. I think the Territory still has restrictions on campaigning in the immediate vicinity of polling stations with campaigners with the vicinity confined to a pre-determined area so a voter has to approach them to get an HTV (or get it online) rather than navigating a gauntlet of campaigners.

There was a by-election in Johnston four years ago (under the restrictions) where the Greens advocated preferencing the Territory Alliance over Labor whilst the CLP advocated the reverse and both had a minority following the recommendation. However in both cases these were against the natural ideological flow for their parties. The Greens preferencing a teal independent in the same seat over an unpopular Labor government isn't in the same ballpark. In Nightcliff I don't see the Greens going out before May so that recommendation isn't going to be a factor.

In Johnston I don’t know the background of the Independent but there seems to be a direct swap with the Greens from four years ago when the Greens almost pushed into second ahead of the CLP (although the Territory Alliance may have damaged the CLP vote) and the Independent was a very distant fifth place.

Justine Davis is a teal style independent (and endorsed by Senator David Pocock) whereas in the 2020 general election the independent had been the CLP candidate in the by-election.

[timmullen]

Aug 24, 2024 21:39:58 GMT timrollpickering said:

Aug 24, 2024 19:42:39 GMT timmullen said:

Antony Green’s very fond of pointing out that there’s usually a 40% divergence from Green HTV cards which overwhelmingly benefits Labor.

That seems to be a mixture of the Green vote being disproportionately interested in politics and disinclined to follow an HTV along with, possibly, less access to them, as they're more likely to vote outside the district. I think the Territory still has restrictions on campaigning in the immediate vicinity of polling stations with campaigners with the vicinity confined to a pre-determined area so a voter has to approach them to get an HTV (or get it online) rather than navigating a gauntlet of campaigners.

There was a by-election in Johnston four years ago (under the restrictions) where the Greens advocated preferencing the Territory Alliance over Labor whilst the CLP advocated the reverse and both had a minority following the recommendation. However in both cases these were against the natural ideological flow for their parties. The Greens preferencing a teal independent in the same seat over an unpopular Labor government isn't in the same ballpark. In Nightcliff I don't see the Greens going out before May so that recommendation isn't going to be a factor.

In Johnston I don’t know the background of the Independent but there seems to be a direct swap with the Greens from four years ago when the Greens almost pushed into second ahead of the CLP (although the Territory Alliance may have damaged the CLP vote) and the Independent was a very distant fifth place.

Justine Davis is a teal style independent (and endorsed by Senator David Pocock) whereas in the 2020 general election the independent had been the CLP candidate in the by-election.

Listening to the candidates on the ABC results programme I got the impression that particularly the urban electorates - Darwin, Palmerston etc - are so small that candidates are literally knocking on every door three times and that’s when they hand out the HTV cards, especially given the high early vote numbers this time.

Your Johnston explanation almost certainly explains the switcharound from 2020.

The Electoral Commission are continuing counting on Sunday, and are expected to release some postal vote numbers, so it’s possible things may be clearer in a few hours.

[iain]

Aug 24, 2024 22:22:42 GMT timmullen said:

Aug 24, 2024 21:39:58 GMT timrollpickering said:

That seems to be a mixture of the Green vote being disproportionately interested in politics and disinclined to follow an HTV along with, possibly, less access to them, as they're more likely to vote outside the district. I think the Territory still has restrictions on campaigning in the immediate vicinity of polling stations with campaigners with the vicinity confined to a pre-determined area so a voter has to approach them to get an HTV (or get it online) rather than navigating a gauntlet of campaigners.

There was a by-election in Johnston four years ago (under the restrictions) where the Greens advocated preferencing the Territory Alliance over Labor whilst the CLP advocated the reverse and both had a minority following the recommendation. However in both cases these were against the natural ideological flow for their parties. The Greens preferencing a teal independent in the same seat over an unpopular Labor government isn't in the same ballpark. In Nightcliff I don't see the Greens going out before May so that recommendation isn't going to be a factor.

Justine Davis is a teal style independent (and endorsed by Senator David Pocock) whereas in the 2020 general election the independent had been the CLP candidate in the by-election.

Listening to the candidates on the ABC results programme I got the impression that particularly the urban electorates - Darwin, Palmerston etc - are so small that candidates are literally knocking on every door three times and that’s when they hand out the HTV cards, especially given the high early vote numbers this time.

Your Johnston explanation almost certainly explains the switcharound from 2020.

The Electoral Commission are continuing counting on Sunday, and are expected to release some postal vote numbers, so it’s possible things may be clearer in a few hours.

All the electorates in the NT are very small, but they are smaller in the Darwin end at this election - ahead of the Voice referendum a large number of Aboriginal voters were enrolled in remote seats, forcing the Electoral Commission to redo their redistribution. Rather than ripping up their draft recommendations and starting from scratch, the Commission moved around a small number of electors so a number of remote electorates are at the maximum threshold whilst a number of Darwin electorates are at the minimum.

[timmullen]

Aug 24, 2024 23:27:35 GMT iain said:

Aug 24, 2024 22:22:42 GMT timmullen said:

Listening to the candidates on the ABC results programme I got the impression that particularly the urban electorates - Darwin, Palmerston etc - are so small that candidates are literally knocking on every door three times and that’s when they hand out the HTV cards, especially given the high early vote numbers this time.

Your Johnston explanation almost certainly explains the switcharound from 2020.

The Electoral Commission are continuing counting on Sunday, and are expected to release some postal vote numbers, so it’s possible things may be clearer in a few hours.

All the electorates in the NT are very small, but they are smaller in the Darwin end at this election - ahead of the Voice referendum a large number of Aboriginal voters were enrolled in remote seats, forcing the Electoral Commission to redo their redistribution. Rather than ripping up their draft recommendations and starting from scratch, the Commission moved around a small number of electors so a number of remote electorates are at the maximum threshold whilst a number of Darwin electorates are at the minimum.

I know what you mean but I was meaning small geographically rather than in terms of electors; clearly you’re not going to canvass everybody in the rural electorates as you do in the urban ones.

[The Bishop]

So the Oz mainland is no longer all red, sad day.

[timmullen]

Aug 25, 2024 11:07:46 GMT The Bishop said:

So the Oz mainland is no longer all red, sad day.

Queensland I suspect will follow suit later this year.

[The Bishop]

Yes, that has (also) been on the cards for a while.