Macedonian General Election 2016

[Deleted]

Ivanov has sent the following letter to Trump, Erdogan, Tusk and Stoltenberg (the inclusion of Erdogan is telling) urging them to condemn the Tirana Platform.

"Instead of the elections helping us exit the crisis and allowing us to focus on the urgent reform priorities, we again found ourselves in a deep political crisis. Under the tutorship of Edi Rama three of the four parties of Macedonian Albanians, with 18 out of 120 members of Parliament, drafted a platform for Albanians in the Republic of Macedonia. The Tirana platform now serves are a precondition to form a Government in Macedonia. It is a post­election document adopted in a foreign country in the office of a foreign politician under the tutorship of the Prime Minister of a foreign country. This platform jeopardizes the sovereignty and independence of the Republic of Macedonia and puts it in a subservient position or position of dependence under a foreign country. Implementation of this platform would include changes to the Macedonian Constitution that would endanger the unitary character of the country, and it violates the Ohrid Framework Agreement, which regulates inter­ethnic relations. It is discriminatory against other ethnic groups in Macedonia, putting one of them in a privileged position. The Tirana platform has a destabilizing effect and increases inter­ethnic tensions in the Republic of Macedonia."

[Deleted]

Parliament hasn't been convened, and the (VMRO) Speaker seems unwilling to do so. The mandates of the current mayors and municipal councils run out on 22 May and if parliament fails to either approve a decree to hold local elections or postpone them the normal functioning of the municipalities stops. The mayors can temporarily transfer their powers to their municipal secretaries, so wages and liabilities can be paid, but that is all.

In Bitola four masked men tried to set the Albanian Alphabet Museum on fire by throwing Molotov cocktails at the building Tuesday morning, but failed to set it ablaze. Its a step up from the various beatings and threats, if they start going after "cultural symbols". Sooner or later the Albanians are going to retaliate.

[Georg Ebner]

I think, most Macedonians regret, that they didn't let the Albanians leave.
Among SchoolChildren Albanians are already at 33%...

[Deleted]

Mar 8, 2017 21:24:32 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I think, most Macedonians regret, that they didn't let the Albanians leave. Among SchoolChildren Albanians are already at 33%...

All figures since the national census in 2002 (which said 25.2% of the general population) are estimates and the issue is far too politicized for any numbers to be reliable. But 30% of the general population is the most common figure. Albanian nationalists claim they are 40% of the population. Besides most Roma use Albanian and the Albanians gradually absorb the Turkish minority in many places. 

[Deleted]

Zaev presented his government programme on a press conference today, but said he would wait for the president to give him the mandate and not "introduce new practices". The responsible thing to do, but it could mean a very long stalemate despite the international pressure on Ivanov.

[Deleted]

Former student activist, tv hostess, Democratic Party co-founder and current MP for a newly established far right party Mesilla Doda has called on Albanians in "Illyrida" to demand "full national rights" if Zoran Zaev withdraws from the Tirana platform and President Ivanov doesn't resign, "Albanian political forces" should then urgently gather and help "Illyrida" hold a referendum on independence. She has been widely condemned, but her statement is ofc highly beneficial for the VMRO and the Macedonian nationalists demonstrating against the Tirana platform.

[Deleted]

A new Speaker of Parliament will likely be elected by the end of the week - most likely Talat Dzaferi from BDI, who is a veteran MP and former Minister of Defense.

The opposition parties are trying to convene a parliamentary session and appoint a Committee on Elections and Nominations, which will allow the parties to deliver their candidate proposals. A simple majority of 61 votes is sufficient, which means that the opposition can appoint the Speaker if at least one of the smaller Albanian parties can support Dzaferi.

After a new Speaker is elected Parliament will have to find a solution that will allow the Speaker to call local elections. The deadline for calling the elections to be has expired, so either the deadline needs to be pushed so they can still be held by mid-May, or the Electoral Rulebook and the Law on Local Elections changed, and a new and later date determined.

Its considered unlikely that the new parliament will try to create a new government, since trying to circumvent the president would almost certainly lead to bloodshed in the current situation.

[Deleted]

News IPIS poll shows VMRO with a clear lead over SDSM, but the Albanian parties would still have the decisive seats. VMRO leads the Social Democrats 34.3% to 24.3% among ethnic Macedonians. BDI gets more than half of the Albanian seats for 21.4% of the ethnic Albanian vote, SDSM in 2nd with 13% among ethnic Albanians. 

VMRO 27.1 (+1.6)
SDSM 24.4 (-2.6)

Albanian parties: 8.7%
BDI 4.6%
Besa 2.1%
Alliance for Albanians 1.1%
Democratic Party of Albanians 0.9%

Others 2.2%


8.2% Blank
13.3% Undecided
18.1% Would not vote

[Deleted]

BESA have refused to support Talat Dzaferi from BDI as Speaker, and are also expressing doubt of whether they will join a government (preferring to be able to attack BDI from the outside). If they do, they want as many portfolios as BDI despite only having half the seats.

[Deleted]

"Observers say the VMRO DPMNE’s stalling tactics, which involve the party’s MPs making long speeches and holding discussions amongst themselves in order to prevent a vote on a new parliamentary speaker for as long as possible, are set to continue on Wednesday - and could drag out the process for weeks or possibly months."
www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/macedonia-parliament-stuck-in-long-discussions-03-28-2017

[Deleted]

"As the new opposition-led majority in Macedonia's parliament continues to press for the election of new speaker and a government, media outlets and organizations close to the former ruling VMRO DPMNE party have continued alarmist, threatening campaigns, calling on supporters to mobilise themselves.

News portal Republika on Friday said so-called "patriotic associations", a number of which have been formed in the last two months, have started "mobilising" to defend Macedonia against the prospect of an opposition Social Democrat-led government."

www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/macedonia-s-parliament-resumes-session-amid-militant-tones-04-07-2017

The situation is on the boiling point. VMRO supporters actually had two diggers in place on Friday ready to tear down the fence around parliament and invade it in case a Speaker was elected.

[Deleted]

After the interim speaker Trajko Veljanovski from VMRO attempted to adjourn parliament before the scheduled election of a permanent speaker the SocDems and Albanians voted to continue and the eldest MP took over the speaker's chair. Talat Dzaferi was elected speaker by the Social Democrats, BDI and the Alliance of Albanians. 
Dzaferi addressed the assembly in Albanian and following the playing of the Macedonian anthem, the Albanian MPs sang an acapella version of the Albanian national anthem. Protesters from 'Only Macedonia' (carrying VMRO flags) then stormed the parliament (after the police had absconded) and overwhelmed the security guards. 
Shots were fired, several opposition politicians suffered minor injuries (incl. Zoran Zaev), and many MPs had to escape the building through the windows.The parliament is now occupied by the protesters, who have vowed the block the Albanian 'coup'.  Gruevski has called on all Macedonians to refrain from violence, but resist any 'takeover' attempt by the Social Democrats. 

[Deleted]

[polupolu]

Difficult to see how Macedonia can avoid falling apart ethnically.

[Deleted]

"Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov on Monday said the problems blocking the formation of a new government could be overcome if the new majority in parliament presented strong guarantees for the preservation of the country's unitary character."
www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/macedonian-president-softens-position-after-meeting-yee-05-01-2017

[Deleted]

The news Speaker Talat Dzaferi has given President Ivanov a deadline of ten days to give the parliamentary majority the mandate to form a government. Saying Ivanov is committing a criminal ofference if he doesn't (but not stating what that entails..). VMRO still claim the election of the Speaker was illegitimate, but he was been recognized by the EU and US. 

Lots of provocations from both sides. On Sunday some guys flew a drone carrying a "Greater Albania" at stadium during a football match in Skopje between Shkupi and Vardar.

[Deleted]

The new Speaker yesterday gave the president official notice about the SocDems and Albanians intent to form a government. President Ivanov is constitutionally obliged to award the mandate to a party or coalition which commands a majority in parliament within ten days of receiving official notice of this from parliament. The majority then has an additional 20 days to agree on the new cabinet, which is then put to a vote in parliament.

[Deleted]

On Wednesday Zoran Zaev finally received the mandate to form a government from the president, but Besa boss Bilal Kasami says his party's participation in a new government will depend on whether "other participants" propose ministers who are involved in corruption scandals. This is a thinly veiled attack of their rivals from BDI , many of whose leaders were involved in corruption during the previous government.

[Deleted]

The state department has issued a standard pro-democracy statement:

"The United States welcomes the decision of Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov to give the mandate to form a government to Mr. Zoran Zaev. This decision represents an important step forward for Macedonian democracy and the people of Macedonia.

We look forward to working with the new government to tackle the myriad challenges facing Macedonia, including the need for democratic reforms and full implementation of the Przino agreement. The United States remains Macedonia’s friend and partner, and we are committed to supporting its European and Euro-Atlantic future."

Which indicates that the professionals in the State Department are in control and the various far right GOP congressmen who tried to use the Macedonia conflict as a proxy fight have been sidelined.

[Deleted]

As mentioned above Zaev received the mandate to form a new government on Wednesday. Starting from then he has twenty days to finalize his government platform and submit his proposed cabinet to parliament, but he has said he will try to submit it within ten days. If the talks fail new elections seem inevitable, but he talked with Ahmeti yesterday and I assume BDI will find ministers Besa can not find a reason to veto.