Macedonian General Election 2016

[Deleted]

None of the Albanian parties have dismissed possible cooperation with the Social Democrats, including DUI, which was in government with the SocDems from 2002 to 2006. So far from given that VMRO can hold on to power. If DUI stays in the coalition observers think they will be decimated in the local elections in May and after losing nearly half their MPs that could undermine the party completely.

The SocDems beat DUI in the Albanian towns and allying with them would be the best way to stop that bleeding.

[Georg Ebner]

[Deleted]

Dec 13, 2016 18:17:12 GMT Georg Ebner said:

I can guess what is what, but why post such a map without colour codes?

Putting this up a correction:



(made by Malice the Red)

[Deleted]

Trying to sum up the situation for the Albanian parties.

Until recently there were three Albanian parties in Macedonia:

The Democratic Union for Integration (BDI) was formed as the political arm of the former National Liberation Army (Ushtria Çlirimtare Kombëtare - UÇK), which was founded by ex-Kosovo Liberation Army commander Ali Ahmeti (57) - who still leads BDI - after the 2001 Ohrid agreement that ended a small scale civil war/insurgency (depending on your POV) between the Macedonian security forces and UÇK. Its a SoCon/Islamist and Albanian nationalist party. It has governed with VRMO and recently focused on getting into EU and NATO rather than autonomy and defending Albanian community interests. They were massively punished by this in the election and lost nearly half their seats.

The Democratic Party of Albanians (PDSH) is a right-wing populist, but fairly secular Albanian Nationalist party. It was until yesterday led by Menduh Thaçi (51), who also partook in the 2001 insurgency (and has Kosovarian parents) and his authoritarian leadership style caused significant internal opposition and a split (see below). He has stepped down as leader and the party is seemingly about to be dissolved (whether formally or de facto).

The National Democratic Revival (RDK) is the Macedonian branch of the Democratic League of Kosovo, but a bit more SoCon/Islamist than them and economically liberal/right wing. The party is currently split in two rival wings, which ran on the moderately Islamist BESA movement's list and as part of the secular Albanian Alliance respectively.

The new players:

The BESA Movement (which had candidates from the Islamist RDK wing led by Fadil Zendeli on their lists). BESA means "word of honour" in Albanian. The movement is founded by young intellectuals from different NGOs and is moderately Islamist party with AKP ties. One of their electoral slogans was “If you believe in God!” (then vote for us..). In addition to the religious appeal their main advantage is being fresh faces and not tarnished by scandals. It has attracted quite a few former BDI members. BDI made BESA their main enemy during the campaign, which backfired. As mentioned earlier PDSH boss Menduh Thaci has decided to cede "his" two MPs to BESA so they have a better position in possible government formation talks.

In protest against the corruption of the PDSH and authoritarian style of party leader Menduh Thaci the mayor of Struga Zijadin Sela left and formed the PDSH - Movement for Reforms (LR PDSH). Sela’s new party formed the backbone of the Alliance for Albanians which was more successful than the mother party and got nearly 3%. It almost cleaned house in Struga and generally got a lot of protest votes. In addition to LR PDSH the alliance includes Uniteti led by Gëzim Ostreni and the secular RDK wing led by Vesel Memedi.

[Deleted]

Not going well in Macedonia. The deadline for forming a government is February 16, but things may well explode long before then.

Ten thousands of protestors (most bussed in from small provincial towns) last evening but massive pressure on the electoral commission (DIK), which has already declined most of the oppositions complaints. VMRO leaders heated up the crowd by accusing the SocDems of plotting treason to Macedonia and outing members of traitors to the nation. 

Valentina Bozinovska (in charge of the Commission on Religious Affairs):

"Let me greet you, the defenders. This night is the night of knives. This night is either a night of reason or of the insanity of one man, of the last Macedonian traitor Zoran Zaev."

"Zaev, if you dare confront VMRO you will get the people, you will get Macedonia ... a day will happen in which we will say, come brothers and sisters, let's gather and see who will be our king and who is a spy."
.....
Big online petitions among Albanians demanding that no Albanian MPs cooperate with the VMRO. The Albanian party leaders have agreed to meet Albanian PM Edi Rama in Tirana, which has provoked anger among Macedonian nationalists. 
.....
A judge has rejected the prosecution’s main evidence in the case against Gruevski and 13 others accused of ordering an attack on an opposition mayor and his municipality HQ in 2013. The court refused to allow the testimony of a witness with a hidden identity, as well as the audio recordings of wiretapped conversations between Gruevski and some of the others accused. This means he and the others will almost certainly go free. The judge was reportedly also notably hostile against the (ethnically Albanian) protector.  

Also some veiled threats against US Ambassador Jess Baily, whom VMRO paper accuse of planning a Maidan style "coup". 
....
DIK has already rejected seven out of eight complaints filed by BESA and four out of eight complaints filed by the Social Democrats. So it doesn't look likely any seats will change hands. The proceeding were chaotic with lots of quarreling, yelling and frequent stops, but having more than ten thousand protestors calling you a traitor and yelling about defending the Macedonian nation against usurpers must have been quite stressful. 

[Deleted]

Despite DIK only accepting one out of eight electoral complaints filed by BESA and so far rejecting seven of eight filed by the Social Democrats Gruevski at last nights demos in front of the DIK (going on for third day in a row) accused the electoral commission of "reaching unlawful decisions" in order to "cheat the will of the people", and said that VMRO will not participate in any election reruns. DIK is still considering the last Social Democratic complaint which, could even out the number of MPs to 50/50 if accepted.

"The work of the DIK has turned into parody. We have information that foreign representatives are interfering with the work of some DIK members to commit electoral engineering. Some DIK members are not independent." 

Gruevski has also stated that VMRO are withdrawing from the four party meetings with the Social Democrats, BDI and (now) BESA mediated by international representatives, which has been used in the past two years of political crisis. This would de facto end the EU-mediated "Przino agreement", which established the format.

He accuses Western ambassadors of interfering in the internal affairs of Macedonia, and civil society and NGOs of being funded by foreigners, and says that VMRO will no longer accept any solutions towards overcoming the political crisis which aren't standard practice in EU countries. Protestors carried banners with "Baily Out" (US Ambassador Jess Baily, which government accuse of interfering in the work of the DIK).

Gruevski also vowed to "fight for the de-Sorosisation of the country". 

VMRO supporters have published the home addresses of opposition activists from the social network "colourful revolution" (Maidan etc. reference), with warning notices reading "get ready, we are coming".

[Georg Ebner]

Participation:




"THE LEFT":

The Albanian parties:

[Deleted]

After Gruevski’s virulent anti-Western rhetoric observers now consider it virtually impossible for BDI (or DUI if you prefer) to ally with them, given that the party has made EU/NATO integration a key part of their platform, this has been confirmed by party insiders.

[Deleted]

Fake images with death notices of a number of Western ambassadors and foreign representatives have been uploaded on Imgur and spread.

US ambassador Jess Baily, EU ambassador Samuel Zbogar, former EU mediator in Macedonia Peter Vanhouotte and former European Parliament rapporteur on Macedonia Richard Howitt are among them.

[Deleted]

Macedonia's Public Revenue Office insists that a sudden post-election increase in the number of financial inspections of NGOs is neither politically motivated nor linked to threats issued by VMRO officials or party leader Nikola Gruevski.

[Deleted]

Since the Administrative Court has accepted one electoral complaint filed by the Social Democrats the election will be re-run in a single polling station, number 2011, in the northwestern municipality of Tearce.

This single re-run could well alter the 51-49 balance between the Big Two in favor of VMRO to a 50-50 tie.

The difference between VMRO and the SocDems in the 6th electoral unit, where Tearce is located, was just 307 votes in favour of the former.

VMRO have called the courts decision "scandalous" and "illegal" and said it will not participate in the re-run, which it has condemned as theft and an attack on democracy.

If VMRO only gets 50 seats all talk about continuing the current VMRO/BDI coalition will end as it only has 60 seats then (which will be a relief for the BDI leadership).

[Deleted]

There will be two re-runs, both on Christmas Day: The one in Tearce and another in Gostivar (where BESA had filed a complaint, which got accepted). Both of them in Electoral Unit 6.

[Foggy]

Dec 22, 2016 19:22:39 GMT @odo said:

There will be two re-runs, both on Christmas Day: The one in Tearse and another in Gostivar (where BESA had filed a complaint, which got accepted). Both of them in Electoral Unit 6.

On the face of it that looks like silly timing, but it shouldn't technically be a problem since Macedonia is officially a secular country.

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2016 0:07:01 GMT Foggy said:

Dec 22, 2016 19:22:39 GMT @odo said:

There will be two re-runs, both on Christmas Day: The one in Tearce and another in Gostivar (where BESA had filed a complaint, which got accepted). Both of them in Electoral Unit 6.

On the face of it that looks like silly timing, but it shouldn't technically be a problem since Macedonia is officially a secular country.

Albanians and Turks make up 60% of the population in Gostivar and at least two-thirds in Tearce, so its Muslim majority areas. I suppose it could be considered discrimination, but voting may actually increase among Macedonian churchgoers. Its mandatory that re-runs are conducted two weeks after the election, which was on the 11th, so they didn't have a choice. 

[Foggy]

I could see that there are a lot of parties representing the Albanian minority, but those aren't necessarily all non-Christian. Fair points about the Turks and people who will vote on their way to or from church, though.

On much the continent the 24th is as important as – or more important than – the 25th anyway, so it's perhaps not such a big deal. Had the Spanish parties not got their act together in October, the early election in Spain would've happened last weekend rather than on Christmas Day. At least in Macedonia electoral re-runs take place more swiftly and efficiently than in Austria!

[Deleted]

Dec 23, 2016 1:14:29 GMT Foggy said:

I could see that there are a lot of parties representing the Albanian minority, but those aren't necessarily all non-Christian. Fair points about the Turks and people who will vote on their way to or from church, though.

The recounts are for the municipalities, so the town/city based Albanian numbers I gave are too low.

In the 2002 survey Tearce municipality with 22,500 inhabitants was c. 85% Albanian and 2.5% Turkish, and the Albanians would all be Muslims up there, so more Muslim than the village (which may have c. 70% Muslims).

The Gostivar district is one of the few places that has a couple of Orthodox Albanian villages. The town had 36,000 inhabitants vs. 45,000 in the rest of the municipality and has a Torbeši population (Macedonian speaking Muslims), so it was 2/3 Muslim despite Albanian and Turkish speakers only making up 60% of the population. There are also Torbeši villages in the countryside. All in all you could well have more Macedonian Muslims than Christian Albanians. The municipality was two-thirds Albanian, 20% Macedonian (but a quarter of them would be Muslim), 10% Turkish and 3% Roma (also Muslims, at least nominally). 

You got 12,000 Christians in the city which had 14,000 Macedonian speakers, and a little over 2,000 Macedonian speakers in the countryside, but those wouldn't all be Christians. I doubt you get higher than around 1,500 Macedonian Orthodox and 1,500 Albanian Orthodox in the countryside (and no Roman Catholics).

The Albanian share of the population would be even higher now. 

[Foggy]

Thanks for the extra detail about those Albanian- and Turkish-dominated towns.

[Deleted]

Menduh Thaci has announced his "irrevocable" resignation as DPA leader on Facebook (sic!), but doesn't give any reason. He had already said he wanted to step down after the party's electoral defeat, so no surprise. DPA will be managed by the party's governing council until a new extraordinary congress is called and the party's SG Azem Sadiku will be coordinator of all activities up to the congress.

[Deleted]

What most observers had deemed impossible is now seemingly happening. The Albanian parties in Macedonia are negotiating about a joint platform on key issues for the Albanian community, which will be a precondition for participation in a new government.

The former VMRO allies in the Democratic Union for Integration (BDI) have announced that after the results from the re-runs has been finalized it will invite all the main Albanian parties to discuss a common platform before any of them negotiate with the Macedonian parties.

BESA says they haven't received any offer from BDI but are "ready to cooperate with every political party in Macedonia". BESA have gotten the two DPA seats and control 7 seats to 10 for BDI. 

Ziadin Sela from DPA - Movement for Reforms with 3 seats is positive about joint action to impose demands on "the Macedonian bloc" (and ironic name for the two fierce rivals..). Saying it is "a historic moment for us to solve some open issues that are important for all Albanians".

BDI’s demands for a new government is that Albanian is made an official language in the entire territory of the country. Albanian is currently an official language only in  areas where Albanians make up a significant proportion of the population. But with Albanian being the native tongue for a quarter of the population that has always been regarded as unsatisfactory by the Albanians.

BDI also demands decision-making based on "ethnic consensus" in every state institution, including parliament, as well as economic equality for Albanians (= a proportional division of the country's budget along ethnic lines) + a prolonged mandate for the Special Prosecutor to investigate high-level crime.

All these demands are completely unacceptable to their old coalition partners in VMRO. 

Besa only have three preconditions for a new government:

1) no politicians who are in any way incriminated or suspected of offences by the Special Prosecutor in the government (this excludes Gruevski and half the VMRO leadership)
2) a redefinition of the juridical and constitutional system of the country (= federalism)
3) any new coalition agreement must be fully transparent (no hidden clauses)

DPA says it will support Besa's negotiating positions (and have already given Besa disposition over their two seats).

DPA - Movement for Reforms wants a bi-national state + making the Albanian language official throughout the entire country and equal allocation of budget funds.

So all Albanian parties have demands that VMRO can not possibly agree to, which makes a Social Democratic government with Albanian participation the only option, but Besa and BDI still haven't fully agreed. Ironically the Islamists in Besa are now the moderates and BDI the most radical nationalists. 

[Deleted]

The Gostivar re-run wasn't approved (I was misinformed, sorry about that). According to social media the result of the Tearce vote gives the SocDems 250 and VMRO 142. With the Social Democrats needing a net win of 304 to take a mandate away from VMRO the balance between the big two will remain 51 to 49. So much ado about nothing. In the end the Constitutional Court didn't approve enough of the oppositions complaints to change anything. 

The BDI initiative for a united Albanian bloc already looks dead in the water. BESA/DPA (now de facto party) didn't attend the first meeting. They demand that BDI boss Ali Ahmeti steps down, since he is under investigation by the special prosecutor and heavily implicated in major corruption scandals. The Alliance for Albanians have agreed to further talks on New Year's day, and the two parties have agreed to make their combined 13 seats support either VMRO or the SocDems, depending on which one of them agree to make Albanian an official language + an ethnically balanced budget, one of the offices of president, PM, and Speaker to always go to an Albanian, and extension of the mandate of the special prosecutor. In reality VMRO couldn't possibly meet these demands, but the Social Democrats may (though I doubt the reserved position - this would make Macedonia a Euro-Lebanon).