Macedonian General Election 2016

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Zoran Zaev says he has secured the necessary signatures and that he expects to form a government within 10-15 days, only "a few minor issues" remain in the talks with BDI. "Now we have to agree on distribution of ministries and future government reform platform."

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"BDI’s steering committee has given the green light to the proposal on the Albanian language, which is one of the conditions for the creation of the government with SDSM (Macedonian Social Democratic Union). Both parties have exchanged the drafts of this bill and late last evening, BDI decided to accept it."

“We have discussed all the arguments regarding the bill on the Albanian language and at the end, we offered our consent on the bill. This part of the debate has been finalized and as of Friday, we will continue to harmonize other parts of a joint government platform”, BDI’s spokesman, Bujar Osmani said for IBNA."

IBNA reports that both Besa and the Alliance of Albanians will join the government, but apparently not DPA (whose two seats were lend to Besa). We shall see, but interesting if Besa joins the coalition after all.

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Besa and the Alliance for Albanians have already pledged support for Zaev, whereas BDI will make its final decision on Friday when its central presidency meets. But apparently Zaev takes this for granted now that they have agreed on the language law.

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Gruevski says a government between the Social Democrats and Albanians will be "illegitimate" as it violates the principle that the largest Macedonian party gets to lead the government in coalition with the largest Albanian, a principle he says BDI has always insisted on and the international community pushed for, and that the Albanians have taken the political rights away from the majority. Also says the new language law is unconstitutional and gives a version of "we are peaceful, but maybe we can not control our deeply frustrated supporters...". The nationalists in Hardcore will arrange a big protest this evening in Skopje. BDI still hasn't formally agreed to the coalition.

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BDI have agreed to give Zoran Zaev the necessary signatures to claim the mandate, but says it doesn't mean they will join the government and that they will discuss the possibility of providing outside support to a Social Democratic minority government.

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The highest body in the Orthodox Church the Holy Synode of Hierarchs of the Macedonian Orthodox Church - Ohrid Archbishopric has called for the preservation of the unitary character of the state and a new census to "secure the rights of everyone", which has caused the Islamists in Besa to accuse them of disrespecting the secular character of the state. Meanwhile Hardcore has rebranded as The Unyielding Association and held demonstration last night. Its fairly clear they are VMRO cadres in "disguise".

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The Executive Committee of VMRO has issued a statement in which they vow to "take all appropriate means to protect the will of the majority."

"VMRO strongly oppose the attempts to ignore and undermine the will of the majority of Macedonians (...). Implementing the Tirana Platform and attempts to impose the Albanian language as an official language represents redefining the Republic of Macedonia and goes against the multi-ethnic character of the country, putting members of other ethnic communities in an inferior position."

Interesting logic. If one ethnic minority gets special rights it discriminates against all other minorities (and violates multiculturalism), regardless of whether this minority represents more than a quarter of the population. Its similar to saying Canada can not be a multicultural country because French is an official language and Quebec has more autonomy than other provinces and French Canadians thereby have a special status, which is a rather bizarre line of reasoning in a Balkan context (where Macedonians are unambiguously defined as ethnic Macedonians).

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The main reason the deeply divided BDI agreed to support giving the mandate to Zaev was that it means the municipal elections can be held in March as planned, and given that Besa has said they are willing to join a coalition with Zaev they can hope to get some Macedonian support in the 2nd round in their strongholds where the small, but overwhelmingly right wing Macedonian segment will be the decisive swing vote, or at least that the Macedonians stay home rather than punish BDI (this may be in vain because its clear VMRO see BDI as the main culprits for breaking the "winners with winners" coalition formula). When the municipal elections are over they will then be free to either back a new government or unleash new elections. Simultaneous municipal and parliamentary elections could have led to BDI losing it all and their patronage machine collapsing, as they rely on clientelism that would be the end for them. If they save their municipal bastions its easier for them to risk losing parliamentary seats in a national election. Even if they are relegated to being the 2nd Albanian party they may then still be able to bounce back if Besa becomes unpopular.

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Gruevski has thrown a political bomb by saying that VMRO will support a SocDem minority government and its platform, even if they arrest and charge himself (something that isn't up to the government, but the special prosecutor), as long as Zoran Zaev agrees to drop the language law and the rest of the Tirana Platform, which Gruevski claims will lead to a partition of Macedonia along ethnic lines in cantons or federal units and is part of a plan by foreign interests to undermine the Macedonian nation. Sounds desperate, but might put Zaev under pressure within his own party.

Also implies that a government between the Social Democrats and Albanians will be "controlled by one Ambassador" (aka Jess Baily).

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Its a fairly obvious ruse so I doubt Zaev will fall for it. The plan is to split the Social Democrats and Albanians, if Zaev takes the bait he will be fully dependent on VMRO (the Albanian parties would consider it a betrayal) and very vulnerable as VMRO could topple him whenever they wanted. A new election would then be won by VMRO as Albanian voters would defect from the Social Democrats and VMRO could play the "savior of the nation" card to Macedonian voters.

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Zoran Zaev has handed over 67 signatures to president Gjorge Ivanov from the SocDems, BDI, Besa and Alliance of Albanians, but not DPA. DPA "lend" their two seats to Besa after the election, but has seemingly withdrawn them again. 

The EU and NATO has put lots of pressure on Ivanov during the week-end urging him to give the mandate to Zaev, but of course also strong internal pressure on him not to do it. He is an academic who was elected with VMRO support, but isn't member of the party. 

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"For a united Macedonia" demonstration in Skopje last night.

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This afternoon President Ivanov announced that he refuses to allow a coalition with a platform "imposed by a foreign country" (aka Albania). He claims that since Albanian PM Edi Rama brokered the agreement on the Tirana Platform between the Albanian parties in order to unite them, the entire negotiation process was tainted and the resulting coalition thus breaks the Ohrid Agreement. He has also urged foreign powers (= EU/NATO/US) to refrain from meddling in the Macedonian government formation process. He hasn't announced what he will do next - and there are no constitutional procedures for this situation.

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Albanian PM Edi Rama throws petrol on the fire: "Mr. Ivanov, the Albanian language is not of an enemy but of a state-building nation in Macedonia. There will be no Macedonia without Albanians, my dear President!"

There have been big demonstrations in Skopje, journalists from medias deemed "unpatriotic" have been beaten up, threats have been phoned in etc. So Ivanov has been under intense pressure.

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Zoran Zaev:

"Ivanov has performed a coup. He has pushed Macedonia into a constitutional and national crisis by denying the will of the majority of citizens and by preventing a legal and legitimate transfer of power, I call on citizens not to succumb to provocations. Let’s stay calm and on the side of democratic processes which lead towards the formation of a new democratic government that will be focused on people's real needs and on the rule of law."

"We need to be wise about our next steps. Perhaps someone expects counter reactions, counter provocations. We won't allow it."

The question is how much control Zaev and the Albanian party leaders have over their people (and whether the Albanians stay united behind a peaceful approach).

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The Tirana Platform includes a call for the Macedonian parliament to condemn "the genocide against Albanians in Macedonia" from 1912 to 1956 (1912 is the year Serbia seized Macedonia from the Ottomans), which the Serbian press has been up in arms about, but none of the Macedonian-Albanian parties seem to insist on this, and Zaev would obviously never agree to it.

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So..

Russia accuses the West of trying to create a Greater Albania.

Ivanov still wont appoint Zaev.

The SocDems have sent a government proposal to BDI, who haven't responded.

Besa refuse to negotiate with BDI unless Albanian PM Edi Rama is present as mediator.

DPA's leader Menduh Taci has said that DPA, Besa, and the Alliance for Albanians should unite against BDI, because BDI aren't being constructive in the governing negotiation. Still not clear why DPA didn't sign the motion to appoint Zaev, but it seems they want BDI thrown out (the trouble is the three other Albanian parties can not offer Zaev a majority as they only have ten seats combined to add to his 49).

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BDI has proposed forming a government by convening Parliament and electing a Speaker, who would then be in charge of the formation of a government. I they try to by-pass the President this could escalate quickly.

VMRO has called for new elections, saying the voters should have a chance to vote on the Tirana-platform.

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BDI has officially decided to join the coalition led by the Social Democrats (SDSM). Ali Ahmeti says the decision was unanimous. So the new government (in waiting) now has a majority behind it.

Professor in constitutional law Osman Kadriu says the Plan B is legal, some of his colleagues disagree (and as the name Osman suggests he isn't ethnically Macedonian...)

"Zaev, as a representative of the coalition, with the gathered 67 signatures from the MPs, might request the current Parliament Speaker to schedule a parliament session, at which new Parliament Speaker will be elected. Then he will schedule a new session where the new government will be elected. If the current speaker refuses to schedule the session, then the majority might call the most senior parliamentarian to do this."

One of his ethnically Macedonian colleagues describes this procedure as a coup and says the people on the street could be forced to react....

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Timothy Less from Nova Europa gives a good overview of the situation and why its so dangerous: www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/macedonia-s-crisis-has-become-existential-03-06-2017