Macedonian General Election 2016

[Deleted]

The Albanians will be kingmakers - and they hate each other, so its hard to build a coalition with two Albanian parties.

[Deleted]

With 82% of precincts reporting:
VMRO-DPMNE 38.82 %
SDSM 36.28 %
DUI 7.37 %
BESA 4.62 %
AA 2.94 %
DPA 2.60 %
VMRO z M 2.07 %

[Deleted]

There has been various reports of ballot stuffing, attempts of vote buying, intimidation etc. Its far from given the losing side will accept the result.

Unless there is a VRMO + DUI majority the government formation process will be chaotic.

[Georg Ebner]

Dec 11, 2016 22:07:51 GMT @odo said:

First party HeadQuarters I know, that has some style!

[Deleted]

The Albanian seats looks set to be divided with 8-9 seats to the Democratic Union for Integration, 5-6 to newcomers BESA, and only 2 for the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA), while the breakaway DPA-Movement for Reforms gets 3 MPs. 

[Deleted]

Best case scenario is probably a temporary caretaker administration or, less likely, half a year of "shotgun marriage" grand coalition and then new elections along with the local elections in spring. Worst case scenario is very dire... 

Some talk of a VRMO minority government, but that would be unacceptable to the opposition.

None of the other Albanians can work with the "traitors" in DUI, but they can not work together either.

[Deleted]

The two new Albanian lists are coalitions of minor parties:

DPA - Movement for Reforms (LR PDSH) have formed an alliance with Uniteti, and the RDK wing led by Vesel Memedi, which is either called the Alliance for Albanians or simply DPA - Movement for Reforms after its biggest party.

Besa and the RDK wing led by Fadil Zendeli have united in an alliance usually called Besa (meaning "word of honour" in Albanian)

Nov 30, 2016 16:53:04 GMT @odo said:

The National Democratic Revival (RDK) is the Macedonian branch of the Democratic League of Kosovo, but a bit more SoCon/Islamist than them. Economically liberal.

Personal and family rivalries, animosity between "Kosovarians" and old stock Macedonian Albanians and the secular/religious divide all play a part in how these groups are aligned, and who hates who. 

[Deleted]

With nearly everything in its a 51-51 tie between the two big parties:

[Deleted]

VMRO + BDI (or DUI in English) have 60 seats combined, so two short of a majority. The ex-Commies and the three minor Albanian lists have 60 seats, so the three diaspora seats looks set to become decisive and they have always been safe VRMO. So the opposition needs to gain two seats to make it 62-61.

[Deleted]

With 99.88% in the ex-Commies have lost two and VRMO and BDI have each won an extra seat. So the diaspora seats wont matter. 

[Deleted]

VRMO lose a seat to the alliance led by DPA - Movement for Reforms/Alliance for Albania (= Aleanca). But its still 61-59 to the regime and with 3 diaspora seats its 64-59, which gives them a workable majority (tiny majorities are unworkable on the Balkans).

[Georg Ebner]

5 elections in 10 years - most provoked by the exApparatshiks - and all won by the government, that rescued Merkel/Austria/EU last year!

[Georg Ebner]

Except the very special ElectoralUnit 6 (the strongly albanic NW) VMRO lost quite uniformly 4-7%, the Apparatshiks gained everywhere ~12%.

[Georg Ebner]

Less the diaspora the ElectoralCommission has:

67.10%

37.98%=51 VMRO
36.74%=49 SDSM
07.26%=10 DUI
04.89%=05 Besa
02.97%=03 Alliance
02.62%=02 DPA
02.06%=00 VMRO-M (UltraNationalists advocating the Anschluss to Bulgaria, I think)

Amusing, that VMRO and DUI can rarely be divorced these times; initially Gruevski ruled with DPA and disliked DUI.

[Deleted]

The EU accord implemented a minimum participation requirement for the diaspora seats, and it wasn't met this time (under 8,000 of c. 22,000 registered overseas voters voted), so there will be no diaspora seats in this parliament, which will only have 120 members.

The rule is that there are up to 3 diaspora seats (elected in one worldwide constituency). A party needs to finish in top three and gather at least 6,500 votes (= roughly the average amount required to get a mandate in a Macedonian electoral unit). VMRO topped the overseas vote, but failed to get 6,500 (which is unsurprising with only about 7,800 overseas voters).

This gives a razor thin 61-59 majority to the government, and that is not a workable majority in a country like Macedonia, where defections are quite common. Interesting situation. Most likely the government will call new parliamentary elections in spring to be held simultaneously with the local elections.

[Deleted]

Discounting the three diaspora seats (all VMRO) and using the previous election as baseline rather than how it looked before the election (after a handful of defections) the result looks like this.

VMRO 51 (−7)
Social Democratic Union 49 (+15)
Democratic Union for Integration 10 (−9)
Besa 5 (new) *
Alliance for Albanians 3 (new)
Democratic Party of Albanians 2 (−5) *

(since the media have used a confusing mix of English, Macedonian and Albanian acronyms, which also spilled over to this thread, I will use full party names except forVMRO)

The government lost 16 seats, the ex-Commies won 15, the Albanian establishment opposition lost 5 seats, while two new Albanian anti-establishment alliances (formed on the basis of older parties and parts of them) won 8 seats, the National Democratic Revival (RDK), which is now split in supporters of each the two new alliances, had one seat in the outgoing parliament, and the centrist Citizen Option for Macedonia (GROM) lost their seat. 

Perhaps more interesting the Albanian parties lost 7 seats combined, and these 7 seats were all picked up by the Social Democrats, which now has an Albanian representation roughly proportional to the Albanian share of the population. While the four Albanian parties/alliances "only" have 20 seats combined. Whether this is the start of a less ethnically divided political system is hard to say, but given how right wing the Albanian parties are it is logical (and IMO healthy) that the Social Democrats can attract especially younger and secular Albanians. 

* Besa now have 7 seat, because party leader Menduh Thaci has decided that DPA joins Besa and announced his own resignation from all party posts. But since that is a post-election event I have not included that in the numbers.

[Deleted]

Distribution on electoral units:

1st electoral unit: SocDem 10, VMRO 8, Democratic Union for Integration 1, Besa 1 
2nd electoral unit: VMRO 9, SocDem 8, Democratic Union for Integration 2, Besa 1
3rd electoral unit: VMRO 11, SocDem 9
4th electoral unit: VMRO 10, SocDem 10
5th electoral unit: VMRO 9, SocDem 9, Democratic Union for Integration 1, Alliance for Albanians 1
6th electoral unit: Democratic Union for Integration 6, VMRO 4, SocDem 3, Besa 3, Alliance for Albanians 2, Democratic Party of Albanians 2
7th electoral unit: no seats

[Deleted]

Reminder why this result was bad:

Prof. Florian Bieber from the University of Graz, ho is coordinator of the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG):

"The wiretapping scandal in Macedonia has revealed an alarming picture of “state capture”, to borrow the term that the European Commission used in its most recent report. The leadership of the ruling party VMRO-DPMNE and its coalition partner, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, have taken control of Macedonian state, undermined the freedom of the media, the independence of the judiciary and basic democratic processes. Except for hard-core party activists, these revelations are beyond dispute. The EU-appointed expert group under the competent leadership of Reinhard Priebe noted: “Essential standards of democratic governance have to be met.” To be clear, Macedonia under this ruling party is not a functioning democracy. The coming general elections are not just part of the process leading out of the crisis but a referendum of sorts on the current situation."

[johnloony]

Dec 12, 2016 6:31:59 GMT @odo said:

The EU accord implemented a minimum participation requirement for the diaspora seats, and it wasn't met this time (under 8,000 of c. 22,000 registered overseas voters voted), so there will be no diaspora seats in this parliament, which will only have 120 members.

A peculiar concept that the number of representatives in each district depends on turnout. A bit drastic to say that <50% deserves 0 MPs.

[Deleted]

Dec 13, 2016 2:16:10 GMT johnloony said:

Dec 12, 2016 6:31:59 GMT @odo said:

The EU accord implemented a minimum participation requirement for the diaspora seats, and it wasn't met this time (under 8,000 of c. 22,000 registered overseas voters voted), so there will be no diaspora seats in this parliament, which will only have 120 members.

A peculiar concept that the number of representatives in each district depends on turnout. A bit drastic to say that <50% deserves 0 MPs.

Well, its people living abroad and therefore not paying taxes or using Macedonian public services. Many of them can not be bothered to vote in their homeland's election, and the three constituencies have previously acted as "rotten boroughs" for the right (which is why the opposition demanded the system changed). Last time VMRO won the Americas' seat on a turnout of less than 500. 

Its not a 50% turnout requirement, but a party based threshold. I actually described the system in the posts you quoted part of:
"The rule is that there are up to 3 diaspora seats (elected in one worldwide constituency). A party needs to finish in top three and gather at least 6,500 votes (= roughly the average amount required to get a mandate in a Macedonian electoral unit). VMRO topped the overseas vote, but failed to get 6,500 (which is unsurprising with only about 7,800 overseas voters).