Macedonian General Election 2016

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Some important dates:

Parliament has until December 31 to hold its inaugural session.

President Gjorge Ivanov has until January 9 to give the mandate to form a government to either Nikola Gruevski or Zoran Zaev.

Parliament then has until February 16 to vote in the new government. If no government is formed by then new elections will have to be called.

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President Gjorge Ivanov has entrusted Nikola Gruevski with a mandate to form a new government. He has 20 days to secure a majority of 61, or return the mandate. As the leader of the biggest party it was almost inevitable that Gruevski would get the first try.

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"Ali Ahmeti, leader of Macedonia’s main ethnic Albanian party, the Democratic Union for Integration, DUI, on Wednesday said the DUI will start negotiations with VMRO DPMNE since it had received a mandate to form the next government. However, Ahmeti said he had not decided if the negotiations would likely end with a renewed partnership, as DUI is still analyzing four options - a coalition with VMRO DPMNE, a coalition with the opposition Social Democrats, SDSM, joining a "technical" government, or staying in opposition."

www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/macedonian-main-albanian-party-mulls-coalition-with-gruevski-01-11-2017#sthash.vXrp6zwV.dpuf

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With one day to go for Gruevski before he has to relinquish the mandate there is widespread confusion:

BDI spokesperson Bujar Osmani says that the party stands by its unwritten pact with VMRO from 2007 that the government should be formed between the two parties with the most seats in the ethnic Macedonian and Albanian blocs respectively. Saying that the only reason they negotiate with VMRO is to uphold this important principle of ‘winner with winner’.

BDI VP Teuta Arifi denies such a principle exists, and she says that even if it does, the political situation has changed fundamentally since the pact was made in May 2007. She also says that since they do not have a majority of the Albanian seats (they got 10 of 20) its hard to carry out this principle.

So far BDI boss Ali Ahmeti has only met Gruevski once since he received the mandate to form a government at the beginning of January. It has been reported that the two parties have already agreed on two out of three of BDI’s key demands - the continuation of Macedonia’s "Euro-Atlantic orientation" and the use of Albanian as official language in the entire country, and that only BDI’s insistence on prolonging the mandate for the Special Prosecutor remained unsolved, but BDI denies this.

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No decision yet, with few hours to go before the deadline expires BDI deputy leader Teuta Arifi (also mayor of Tetova) and Nevzat Bejta (mayor of Gostivar) have been meeting with Zoran Zaev at SDSM's headquarters in Skopje. Together with a third MP, Izet Medziti, they skipped the meeting where BDI were set to decide whether to join a new coalition with VMRO. Without those three the coalition won't have a majority.

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BDI spokesman Bujar Osmani denies persistent media rumors they have reach an agreement with VMRO.

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Gruevski missed his deadline and will have to return the mandate to President Gjorge Ivanov today. Ivanov then has ten days to give it to another contender, who will try to secure a majority. This could be another person from VMRO, but that would obviously antagonize the opposition. If Ivanov follows the spirit of the constitution he should give it to Social Democratic party leader Zoran Zaev.

VMRO have said in a statement that new elections is the best option to end the political stalemate, which indicates they aren't interested in presenting a 2nd PM contender.

BDI just says they are still mulling five options: joining VMRO, joining the Social Democrats, forming a "wide-ranging government alliance" (incl. all Albanian parties), staying in opposition, or going for new elections. They are reportedly internally divided (which more or less makes them useless as coalition partners).

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In 1992 then-president Kiro Gligorov granted the mandate to form a government to Petar Gosev from the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, and then handed it over to Branko Crvenkovski from the same party, so there is a precedent (but this was considered highly problematic back then, and mass protest are guaranteed to erupt if the president "pulls a Gligorov").

Many in BDI apparently want a temporary coalition with VMRO, but led by the current Foreign Minister Nikola Popovski instead of Nikola Gruevski, and then new elections in spring. The main problem with that solution is that BDI can not accept the mandate of the Special Prosecutor's Office to expire (which is a main goal for Gruevski & Co.).

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President Ivanov has decided to basically kick the can down the road by saying that whoever presents him with proof of having a majority gets the mandate to form a government - which is of course the reverse order, as the whole point of handing out a mandate is to designate a person to lead the government formation process, but was the least controversial step he could take.

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Trumpist Republicans going after ambassador Jess Baily - perhaps signalling a switch to a more pro-Russian stance (= pro-VMRO) by the US (but the Trump administration is all over the place on foreign policy..).

"Leading Republican House representativeChristopher Smith announced an investigation in the activities of the US Embassy in Macedonia, and the allegations that it has acted in an openly partisan way in the past years, supporting the left wing SDSM party.

The call comes after the Embassy failed to respond to a letter signed by Smith and five other GOP representatives (incl. Louie Gohmert..), who demanded answers over meddling in domestic politics, but also over Embassy funding for activities of the George Soros-led Foundation Open Society Macedonia."

(...)

"The US Ambassador should not have a role in forming the Government or take sides during the coalition making process. It is not the place of the United States or the US representatives in Skopje to do so. We, as a group of members of Congress, sent specific question in our letter asking whether there was collusion between the Embassy and left wing parties during the elections. We need to have free and fair elections and to work with the media, but under no circumstances should we take sides. This Ambassador has taken a side and he should be fired immediately! I've served in the Congress for 37 years, I am a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, I chair the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Global Human Rights and International Operations Subcommittee. And I think it is unheard of that our Ambassador in Skopje takes a side in these elections, or in any other past or future elections. That is not his job. We intend to get to the bottom of this. We did not receive a response to our letter and we are asking the Inspector General to file a report. If they violated the law, they will be held responsible"

www.independent.mk/articles/40992/US+Embassy+in+Macedonia+under+Investigation+Top+Congressman+Demands+Removal+of+Baily



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The Russian Foreign Ministry has issued a statement calling on "the West" to stop meddling in Macedonia's internal affairs and urging the Macedonian parties to "resist foreign influence". Also saying that one ethnic group should not decide which party from the other ethnic group should be in government (implying the Albanians shouldn't be allowed to prefer the Social Democrats).

"Open foreign influence continues under the guise of pseudo-democratic slogans." (...)

"The shameless Machiavellian manipulations with the will of the voters can escalate the situation and endanger the fragile situation in the whole region."

This makes the timing of the six GOP congressmen attacking Jess Baily seem rather suspicious...

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Ivanov has set two conditions for a new government, that it should protect the country's unitary character and work for "systemic reforms" (including of national security), but the spokesperson for the Social Democrats states that the government platform is "adopted by parliament, not Ivanov". So the next step in the crisis could very well be Social Democrats making a deal with the Albanian parties that creates a (de facto or de jure) federal state and Ivanov then declining to accept the new government.

EDIT: The president's office now says it only his personal preferences and not conditions.

[polupolu]

I just wanted to say thank you Odo for keeping us informed on all these matters. Its great to have this source of information. Your efforts are appreciated.

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BDI's leadership remains deeply divided after the Social Democrats de facto have accepted their demands regarding national bilingualism.

The three mayors of Gostivar, Tetova and Čair (#) (Teuta Arifi, Nevzat Bejta and Izet Medjitiare) are still against a new coalition with VMRO, as party leader Ali Ahmeti wants. Ahmeti insists there is no rush regarding the formation of a new government (despite all external powers pressing for a speedy solution). The mayors fear Besa will oust them if they collaborate with VMRO, whereas Ahmeti thinks the only hope for the mayors to get reelected in May is an alliance with VMRO as the second round will be between BDI and Besa with Macedonians being the decisive swing voters in the 2nd round. Ahmeti thinks these transfers can only come from VMRO voters. Internal polls reportedly show Besa leading BDI in all three municipalities.

If BDI lose the three municipalities that are its main bases it would de facto end its position as the leading Albanian party (and as it relies on clientelism and pork barreling that would be fatal).

The most likely scenario now seems to be new national elections along with the locals in May.

(#) Čair includes most of Skopje's old bazaar district, its close to 60% Albanian, Turks and Bosniaks make up a further 12% of the population.

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A survey commissioned and published by Telma TV and carried out M Prospect agency says a new election would result in a tie between the big two, but eliminate BDI as the swing vote, giving the opposition a clear advantage.  But the poll has very high numbers of undecideds. I only have the result from Macedonian media, so many of the numbers are rounded and other haven't been included.

VMRO 23.3
SDSM 23.0

Albanian parties 10.5
Besa 3.5
BDI 3.3
Democratic Party of Albanians 2.2
Alliance for Albanians 1.5

Undecided 33.0%

Among Albanians
SDSM 20.4
Best 15.0
DPA 10.0
Alliance for Albanians 6.0

Among Macedonians
VMRO 30.6
SDSM 23.8

Support for new elections

Against 56.5
In favor 38.6 
Do not know 4.9

In favor of extending the Special Prosecution's deadline for pressing charges

Yes 62.8
No 30.3
Do not know 6.9

Best solution for the political stalemate

Grand coalition 30.3 
SDSM led government 27.3 
VMRO led government 23.5 

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BDI and the Alliance for Albanians met yesterday and have agreed to form a "joint body" within the Parliament which is to draft a law on the use of the Albanian language. The leader of the Alliance for Albanians Ziadin Sela says they will give the required signatures to Social Democratic leader Zoran Zaev to get the mandate.

Sela:

“We discussed the declaration of the Albanian parties (the Tirana agreement). Two conclusions have been reached. Firstly, the Albanian parties will propose representatives within three days so as to write a rulebook for the functioning of the Albanian parties. These meetings should be held at the Parliament. We discussed the draft version of the law on the Albanian language. The law on languages is to be proposed by this body, and we will work on a law that will satisfy the needs of the Albanian people.”

Sela furthermore says the Macedonian parties hold the country hostage and that the Constitution needs to be discussed, not only in terms of the languages issue, but also regarding other issues. Stating the language issue needs to be resolved constitutionally (which requires a 2/3 majority). "Unfortunately, at the moment, this is unacceptable for the Macedonian parties".

Representatives from Besa (which also has the DPA seats "in trust") participated in the meeting, but its unclear to what degree they agree with the others (but their seats aren't needed to form a majority).

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Prior to the meeting the parties demanded that they would only agree to forming a new government if Zoran Zaev accepted their demands (= the Tirana platform in full).

The platform demands bilingualism in the entire Macedonia, as well as changing the flag, national anthem and coat of arms, and that bilingualism is voted on prior to the formation of a new government.

The trouble is that national bilingualism can only be implemented by changing the Constitution, that requires a two-thirds majority which can't be met without the VMRO (so a hopeless demand). Zoran Zaev has stated that the Social Democrats will accept every proposal in the Tirana platform that doesn't include changing the Constitution.

It remains to be seen whether they can somehow work around this.

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The Public Prosecutors Office has announced Monday that it has launched an investigation against several former high-ranking officials in the Ministry of the Interior for election fraud related to the 2014 and 2016 general elections. The investigation also includes several other (unnamed) persons from Skopje and the towns of Kumanovo and Strumica.

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Ali Ahmeti and Zoran Zaev negotiated about the language law yesterday, and Ahmeti has accepted the language law should be within the constitutional limits. The problem is now how far you can stretch the constitution, which allows for official use of a language spoken by more than 20% of the population, but wether that can be used as a criteria on the national level is unclear (it clearly wasn't intended to be interpreted this way). BDI demands that a new language law is approved by parliament before they agree to enter a coalition.

Zaev has said he will form a special commission to control the budget making proces and secure equal allocation of funds to the two communities (Macedonians and Albanians). Thus fulfilling the other central demand from the Tirana-declaraton.

Besa has declared they will stay in opposition, which also includes the two seats the DPA "lend" them. This leaves the Alliance of Albanians (with 3 seats) as a necessary component of a Social Democratic/Albanian coalition.

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Despite the business with the language law Ali Ahmeti stated that there are no major disagreements between BDI and the Social Democrats. If they form a government with the Alliance of Albanians it will only have 62 seats and that is a very slim margin (just one more than necessary). But its now the only option, if it fails there will be new elections.

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Nikola Gruevski has reacted to the on ongoing government negotiations saying that VMRO will not allow any scenario aimed at re-defining Macedonia.

"I must stress that VMRO and its coalition are relentlessly determined to defend the country and its national interests."

Also states that gains won by hard fought battles will not be given up without a fight. So rather openly threatening the use of force.