Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 12, 2018 20:39:39 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 13, 2018 13:15:39 GMT
The French have a habit of hating on their politicians. Not entirely unjustified...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2018 7:50:58 GMT
The French have a habit of hating on their politicians. Not entirely unjustified... That's probably not far off Melenchon's ceiling, and Bayrou always does well in polls, only to go nowhere come the election. I was unconvinced that Macron would be re-elected. However, he'd beat Melenchon, Le Pen or Wauquiez in a second round as they're all marmite. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 14, 2018 7:54:45 GMT
I was unconvinced that Macron would be re-elected. However, he'd beat Melenchon, Le Pen or Wauquiez in a second round as they're all marmite. True, but it's telling that he has crap approval and only wins because the alternative is just as unpopular but more fringe. The NA election may not end up as resounding of an endorsement as last time... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Sept 14, 2018 8:55:13 GMT
I was unconvinced that Macron would be re-elected. However, he'd beat Melenchon, Le Pen or Wauquiez in a second round as they're all marmite. True, but it's telling that he has crap approval and only wins because the alternative is just as unpopular but more fringe. The NA election may not end up as resounding of an endorsement as last time... There's a lot in both these posts. Macron got elected in the first place because the only decent mainstream candidates exploded and it was a choice between Macron or loons on the left and right. It's not that surprising that he's unpopular now because all French presidents seem to lose popularity heavily in office, and because France has some intractable problems which aren't going to get sorted in a couple of years. Take a look at Thatcher's approval ratings after a couple of years for a parallel. But equally there still isn't an obvious challenger from the Socialists or LR - or even much sign of what they'd do differently - so unless FN or someone like Melenchon makes a serious challenge he's still in a strong position to win a binary final round. And I don't know what the mood in France is right now but Le Pen seems to me to have rather gone off the boil - it feels like if she couldn't make it last time she never will. Maybe a new and better FN leader could change things. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 14, 2018 9:11:39 GMT
True, but it's telling that he has crap approval and only wins because the alternative is just as unpopular but more fringe. The NA election may not end up as resounding of an endorsement as last time... There's a lot in both these posts. Macron got elected in the first place because the only decent mainstream candidates exploded and it was a choice between Macron or loons on the left and right. It's not that surprising that he's unpopular now because all French presidents seem to lose popularity heavily in office, and because France has some intractable problems which aren't going to get sorted in a couple of years. Take a look at Thatcher's approval ratings after a couple of years for a parallel. But equally there still isn't an obvious challenger from the Socialists or LR - or even much sign of what they'd do differently - so unless FN or someone like Melenchon makes a serious challenge he's still in a strong position to win a binary final round. And I don't know what the mood in France is right now but Le Pen seems to me to have rather gone off the boil - it feels like if she couldn't make it last time she never will. Maybe a new and better FN leader could change things. I completely agree with that. Personally, I think Marion Maréchal could do it but Devil Wincarnate would know more about whether that’s feasible |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 14, 2018 9:43:53 GMT
Or the left could find some who isn't as divisive as Melenchon (and, indeed, not as cranky on certain issues)?
Being solely reliant on your rivals shortcomings to stay in power, as Macron increasingly appears to be, is never a healthy position in the longer term.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2018 10:15:15 GMT
There's a lot in both these posts. Macron got elected in the first place because the only decent mainstream candidates exploded and it was a choice between Macron or loons on the left and right. It's not that surprising that he's unpopular now because all French presidents seem to lose popularity heavily in office, and because France has some intractable problems which aren't going to get sorted in a couple of years. Take a look at Thatcher's approval ratings after a couple of years for a parallel. But equally there still isn't an obvious challenger from the Socialists or LR - or even much sign of what they'd do differently - so unless FN or someone like Melenchon makes a serious challenge he's still in a strong position to win a binary final round. And I don't know what the mood in France is right now but Le Pen seems to me to have rather gone off the boil - it feels like if she couldn't make it last time she never will. Maybe a new and better FN leader could change things. I completely agree with that. Personally, I think Marion Maréchal could do it but Devil Wincarnate would know more about whether that’s feasible I'm not convinced she could to be honest, although the best person to defer to here is Hash. There's a limited appeal to that part of the French Right. If the FN shake off the fascist aspect (which they have mainly done) and go Catholic-traditional, it holds more appeal but remains limited. Marion appeals more the latter tendency, though. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2018 10:15:52 GMT
There's a lot in both these posts. Macron got elected in the first place because the only decent mainstream candidates exploded and it was a choice between Macron or loons on the left and right. It's not that surprising that he's unpopular now because all French presidents seem to lose popularity heavily in office, and because France has some intractable problems which aren't going to get sorted in a couple of years. Take a look at Thatcher's approval ratings after a couple of years for a parallel. But equally there still isn't an obvious challenger from the Socialists or LR - or even much sign of what they'd do differently - so unless FN or someone like Melenchon makes a serious challenge he's still in a strong position to win a binary final round. And I don't know what the mood in France is right now but Le Pen seems to me to have rather gone off the boil - it feels like if she couldn't make it last time she never will. Maybe a new and better FN leader could change things. I completely agree with that. Personally, I think Marion Maréchal could do it but Devil Wincarnate would know more about whether that’s feasible She is pretty and sympathic (and attending the Latin Mass!), but the left media would immediately put Her into the Nazi-corner. Marine LePen softened her party often enough and still she had no chance. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2018 10:18:01 GMT
Or the left could find some who isn't as divisive as Melenchon (and, indeed, not as cranky on certain issues)? Being solely reliant on your rivals shortcomings to stay in power, as Macron increasingly appears to be, is never a healthy position in the longer term. His Third Republic thuggery towards the Bretons, Occitan-speakers et al adds am extra layer of hindrance to his already Marmite credentials. This is particularly something to note in the anti-clerical belts of certain regions. I can't think of a figure on the Left so hostile towards the indigenous minorities of France in decades. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 14, 2018 10:32:06 GMT
Or the left could find some who isn't as divisive as Melenchon (and, indeed, not as cranky on certain issues)? Being solely reliant on your rivals shortcomings to stay in power, as Macron increasingly appears to be, is never a healthy position in the longer term. His Third Republic thuggery towards the Bretons, Occitan-speakers et al adds am extra layer of hindrance to his already Marmite credentials. This is particularly something to note in the anti-clerical belts of certain regions. I can't think of a figure on the Left so hostile towards the indigenous minorities of France in decades. What has he specifically said? I've seen reference to it but nothing specific. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 10:51:04 GMT
Or the left could find some who isn't as divisive as Melenchon (and, indeed, not as cranky on certain issues)? Being solely reliant on your rivals shortcomings to stay in power, as Macron increasingly appears to be, is never a healthy position in the longer term. I think his name is Hamon |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 10:52:19 GMT
The French have a habit of hating on their politicians. Not entirely unjustified... That's probably not far off Melenchon's ceiling, and Bayrou always does well in polls, only to go nowhere come the election. I was unconvinced that Macron would be re-elected. However, he'd beat Melenchon, Le Pen or Wauquiez in a second round as they're all marmite. Assuming he gets to a second round |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 14, 2018 11:15:02 GMT
Or the left could find some who isn't as divisive as Melenchon (and, indeed, not as cranky on certain issues)? Being solely reliant on your rivals shortcomings to stay in power, as Macron increasingly appears to be, is never a healthy position in the longer term. I think his name is Hamon Yes. Surely Mark plays for the Nics? |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 14, 2018 13:04:03 GMT
When the FN changed its name to RN, did some of it split away and want to keep the name FN?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2018 14:04:14 GMT
His Third Republic thuggery towards the Bretons, Occitan-speakers et al adds am extra layer of hindrance to his already Marmite credentials. This is particularly something to note in the anti-clerical belts of certain regions. I can't think of a figure on the Left so hostile towards the indigenous minorities of France in decades. What has he specifically said? I've seen reference to it but nothing specific. will know more but he and his associates are weirdly obsessed with shutting down bilingual schools. His main thug, Corbiere, accused Breton schools of being cults. He also keeps claiming that any moves to reinforce regional languages would mean banning French. But more than anything, he really doesn't like Bretons. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2018 14:07:35 GMT
That's probably not far off Melenchon's ceiling, and Bayrou always does well in polls, only to go nowhere come the election. I was unconvinced that Macron would be re-elected. However, he'd beat Melenchon, Le Pen or Wauquiez in a second round as they're all marmite. Assuming he gets to a second round The choices are so utterly underwhelming that he'd get there by default. Hamon is a donkey, the PS have lost their big beasts (Hollande even fancies another go), Wauquiez is awful, Le Pen is another Marmite character...he can beat all of them in the first round. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 14:21:40 GMT
Assuming he gets to a second round The choices are so utterly underwhelming that he'd get there by default. Hamon is a donkey, the PS have lost their big beasts (Hollande even fancies another go), Wauquiez is awful, Le Pen is another Marmite character...he can beat all of them in the first round. hasnt Macron got lower ratings than Hollande did at the same point in his tenure. That might turn around but if it keeps going that way Hollande might as we have another go |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 14, 2018 14:33:43 GMT
The choices are so utterly underwhelming that he'd get there by default. Hamon is a donkey, the PS have lost their big beasts (Hollande even fancies another go), Wauquiez is awful, Le Pen is another Marmite character...he can beat all of them in the first round. hasnt Macron got lower ratings than Hollande did at the same point in his tenure. That might turn around but if it keeps going that way Hollande might as we have another go I would remind you that, in 2002, the polls showed Lionel Jospin beating Jacques Chirac in a second round head-to-head...in 1995, two months before the election, Edouard Balladur and Lionel Jospin were expected to be the pair to go head-to-head. I suspect Macron will turn it round, again because of the lack of talent/excess of sulphur elsewhere. Hollande is not going to get another chance unless the PS lose their minds. He was a bloody awful president who spent most of his time fighting off various women that he had annoyed (bit like his predecessor). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2018 16:18:32 GMT
hasnt Macron got lower ratings than Hollande did at the same point in his tenure. That might turn around but if it keeps going that way Hollande might as we have another go I would remind you that, in 2002, the polls showed Lionel Jospin beating Jacques Chirac in a second round head-to-head...in 1995, two months before the election, Edouard Balladur and Lionel Jospin were expected to be the pair to go head-to-head. I suspect Macron will turn it round, again because of the lack of talent/excess of sulphur elsewhere. Hollande is not going to get another chance unless the PS lose their minds. He was a bloody awful president who spent most of his time fighting off various women that he had annoyed (bit like his predecessor). Had Jospin made it to the final 2 which he only failed to by a whisker, politics is a bloody game, then he may well have. Tbf PS is in pieces of all the social democratic parties in the EU they are probably the least salvageable there is just nothing left of them |
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