French élections législatives, 2017

[andrea]

Parliamentary groups formed

- La République En Marche 313 MPs (309 membres et 4 apparentés)
- Les Républicains 100 MPs (95 membres et 5 apparentés );
- Le Mouvement démocrate et apparentés 47 MPs (43 membres et 4 apparentés);
- Les Constructifs : républicains, UDI, indépendants 35 MPs (34 membres et 1 apparenté);
- Nouvelle Gauche 31 MPs (28 membres et 3 apparentés) ;
- La France insoumise 17 MPs (17 membres) ;
- La Gauche démocrate et républicaine 16 MPs (16 membres).

Nouvelle Gauche (New Left) is PS and friends.
Gauche démocrate et républicaine (Democratic and republican Left) is PCF and friends.

[maxque]

There is also 17 non-inscrits, a mix of FN, PRG, corsican nationalists, 2 presidential candidates (NDA and Lassalle), Southern League (FN ally).

[Trab]

How are vacancies in the French assembly filled?

[Foggy]

Jul 4, 2017 2:00:30 GMT Trab said:

How are vacancies in the French assembly filled?

Each candidate is elected with a substitute (or 'suppléant') who replaces them in case they are called to serve as a minister. I believe this name is listed below the name of the main candidate on the ballot paper. If the suppléant is unavailable or is the one being promoted to the executive (having already replaced someone else in the seat), then at some point a by-election is held over two consecutive Sundays, with the same format as the general election, i.e. 50%+1 to avoid a run-off, or otherwise at least 12.5% of votes from the total electorate to make it into the second round. I know not with what level of urgency this takes place.

When it comes to vacancies due to death, resignation for other reasons, or disqualification, I'm not sure if there is automatically a by-election or if the suppléant can take over in those circumstances. 

[maxque]

Jul 4, 2017 3:43:13 GMT Foggy said:

Jul 4, 2017 2:00:30 GMT Trab said:

How are vacancies in the French assembly filled?

Each candidate is elected with a substitute (or 'suppléant') who replaces them in case they are called to serve as a minister. I believe this name is listed below the name of the main candidate on the ballot paper. If the suppléant is unavailable or is the one being promoted to the executive (having already replaced someone else in the seat), then at some point a by-election is held over two consecutive Sundays, with the same format as the general election, i.e. 50%+1 to avoid a run-off, or otherwise at least 12.5% of votes from the total electorate to make it into the second round. I know not with what level of urgency this takes place.

When it comes to vacancies due to death, resignation for other reasons, or disqualification, I'm not sure if there is automatically a by-election or if the suppléant can take over in those circumstances. 

Death -> suppléant
Resignation -> by-election (but the government has ways to go around that)
Disqualification -> depends on why and when

[maxque]

Jun 20, 2017 8:57:40 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Some more NKM news. Some bloke ran up to her and shoved her whilst out campaigning, ending up with her being knocked out cold. The La REM candidate gallantly suspended campaigning.

More NKM news. She was forced out of the post of leader of the LR group on Paris Council, due to being too counciliant with Macron and losing the 2014 city elections and losing a safe constituency in June. Also, her trying to replace the old guard (some councilllors are there since the 80's) and being social liberal doesn't go well in the catholic upper class of the 16th borough (which is a big part of what's left in the party in Paris).

She created her own group, with five other councillors (Progressive and Constructive Parisians).

[Deleted]

Jul 5, 2017 12:46:38 GMT @trident said:

Sorry, but who is NKM?

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet

[Georg Ebner]

ValD'Oise1 was the first ByElection. A TurnOut of 20.33% (-27.83%) doesn't provide us incredibly safe trends, of course.

29.28 (- 6.65) REM
23.67 (+5.92) LR+UDI
11.47 (+1.34) FI
10.11 (- 5.19) FN
06.88 (+1.40) PS
06.20 (+2.33) EELV
04.31 ( *4.31) DLF
02.63 (+1.36) PDF (Lang, exFN)
01.97 (- 0.60) PCF
01.25 (+0.46) LO
01.19 ( *1.19) LP (Philippot, exFN)
01.04 (+0.07) UPR (EuroSceptics, Asselineau)

Would give a majority for Macron plus Left (2017 REM achieved 54.23% in the RunOff), but lots of their voters will stay at home next SunDay, i think.

[Georg Ebner]

Another ByElection was happening in Belfort-1:

29.51 ( -20.23) Participation

39.02 (+15.32) LR+UDI
26.67 (-5.16) MoDem+REM
11.62 (-0.55) FI+MRC+PCF
07.52 (-9.98) FN
04.45 (*4.45) EELV
03.82 (*3.82) DLF
02.60 (-6.50) PS
01.99 (*1.99) LP (exFN)
01.59 (+0.54) LO
00.73 (-0.02) UPR

LR and MoDem had the same candidates.
FN demoralized, LR performed convincingly in this const. of easternFrance.
Chevement's MRC is far from former strength here and PS would have lost their deposit...

[neilm]

Jan 30, 2018 4:36:35 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Another ByElection was happening in Belfort-1:

29.51 ( -20.23) Participation

39.02 (+15.32) LR+UDI
26.67 (-5.16) MoDem+REM
11.62 (-0.55) FI+MRC+PCF
07.52 (-9.98) FN
04.45 (*4.45) EELV
03.82 (*3.82) DLF
02.60 (-6.50) PS
01.99 (*1.99) LP (exFN)
01.59 (+0.54) LO
00.73 (-0.02) UPR

LR and MoDem had the same candidates.
FN demoralized, LR performed convincingly in this const. of easternFrance.
Chevement's MRC is far from former strength here and PS would have lost their deposit...

When is the second round?

[andrea]

Sunday 4th Feb

[Devil Wincarnate]

I like Chevenement an awful lot.  If there were a Chevenementist party in this country, I would strongly consider voting for it.

[Georg Ebner]

Belfort-1:

TurnOut 28.89 (-15.36)

LR-UDI 58.93 (+8.17)

No EarthQuake, but a solid swing against Macron and for LR.

[Georg Ebner]

ValD'Oise-1:

19.09 (-20.52) TurnOut

51.45 (+5.68) LR-UDI (gain!)

[Devil Wincarnate]

Feb 4, 2018 21:35:36 GMT Georg Ebner said:

ValD'Oise-1:

19.09 (-20.52) TurnOut

51.45 (+5.68) LR-UDI (gain!)

And amusingly, Muller-Quoy (LREM) was the university law tutor for her replacement, Savignat (LR)!

[neilm]

So how many setbacks before Macron looks really unpopular? Maybe the king has lost his crown.

[Deleted]

To be fair Macron isnt as unpopular as he was during the labour law protests.

[Hash]

The next by-election for a 2017 result being overturned is occurring this weekend, with the first round in French Guiana's second constituency.

The constituency is the western half of the region, excluding Cayenne. Most of the population lives along the coastal strip, notably in the space centre at Kourou or various other coastal localities, or along the Maroni and Lawa rivers on the Surinamese border, notably in Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, the regional sub-prefecture and the second most populous city after Cayenne. French Guiana is wracked by a plethora of problems like massive unemployment, poverty, poor public services, criminality, illegal immigration and illegal gold panning, ills expressed by the 2017 social protests in the region. The constituency's population is over 128,000, but because of a young population and one of the largest non-citizen foreigner population of any constituency in the country (40%), the number of registered voters is considerably lower at just 39,400 in June 2017 -- and turnout is even lower, with less than 10,000 valid votes in the first round of the legislative election and a bit over 13,000 votes in the runoff (26% and 35%).

The seat was held by the right from 1988 to 2007 with Léon Bertrand, the corrupt and now convicted mayor of Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni (since 1983) who was tourism minister from 2002 to 2007. He lost reelection to left-winger Chantal Berthelot in 2007 and fared very poorly in a 2012 rematch against her. She in turn lost reelection in 2017, eliminated from the first round by Lenaick Adam (LREM) and trade unionist Davy Rimane, one of the main leaders of the 2017 protests (regionalist left). Adam, who became the first Bushinengué/black Maroon deputy, was elected with a 57 vote majority (6670 v 6613), 50.2% to 49.8%, in the runoff.

The by-election should be a rematch between Adam and Rimane. Rimane is now supported by FI and Mélenchon is taking the by-election unusually seriously, spending a full week down there; like in 2017, Rimane is also endorsed by Léon Bertrand, and apparently Mélenchon has no moral reservations in sharing a platform with a convicted felon, even though Mélenchon lost his shit over FI being endorsed by other left-wing parties a month ago in Belfort. I'm assuming Mélenchon probably thinks every single person in South America is a chavista Bolivarian anti-imperialist or whatever.

I wrote a much more thorough profile elsewhere, but this will do.

[neilm]

Mar 3, 2018 2:33:11 GMT Hash said:

The next by-election for a 2017 result being overturned is occurring this weekend, with the first round in French Guiana's second constituency.

The constituency is the western half of the region, excluding Cayenne. Most of the population lives along the coastal strip, notably in the space centre at Kourou or various other coastal localities, or along the Maroni and Lawa rivers on the Surinamese border, notably in Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, the regional sub-prefecture and the second most populous city after Cayenne. French Guiana is wracked by a plethora of problems like massive unemployment, poverty, poor public services, criminality, illegal immigration and illegal gold panning, ills expressed by the 2017 social protests in the region. The constituency's population is over 128,000, but because of a young population and one of the largest non-citizen foreigner population of any constituency in the country (40%), the number of registered voters is considerably lower at just 39,400 in June 2017 -- and turnout is even lower, with less than 10,000 valid votes in the first round of the legislative election and a bit over 13,000 votes in the runoff (26% and 35%).

The seat was held by the right from 1988 to 2007 with Léon Bertrand, the corrupt and now convicted mayor of Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni (since 1983) who was tourism minister from 2002 to 2007. He lost reelection to left-winger Chantal Berthelot in 2007 and fared very poorly in a 2012 rematch against her. She in turn lost reelection in 2017, eliminated from the first round by Lenaick Adam (LREM) and trade unionist Davy Rimane, one of the main leaders of the 2017 protests (regionalist left). Adam, who became the first Bushinengué/black Maroon deputy, was elected with a 57 vote majority (6670 v 6613), 50.2% to 49.8%, in the runoff.

The by-election should be a rematch between Adam and Rimane. Rimane is now supported by FI and Mélenchon is taking the by-election unusually seriously, spending a full week down there; like in 2017, Rimane is also endorsed by Léon Bertrand, and apparently Mélenchon has no moral reservations in sharing a platform with a convicted felon, even though Mélenchon lost his shit over FI being endorsed by other left-wing parties a month ago in Belfort. I'm assuming Mélenchon probably thinks every single person in South America is a chavista Bolivarian anti-imperialist or whatever.

I wrote a much more thorough profile elsewhere, but this will do.

Why was the result overturned?

[Foggy]

The above would also be my only question following that otherwise sufficiently detailed preview of the by-election.

I have a friend who lives on the border between French Guiana and the Brazilian state of Amapá, so I hear a bit about the general problems in that part of the world (but not this particular constituency).