French élections législatives, 2017

[Hash]

Two precincts in Maripasoula lacked scrutineers/assessors, which in the Constitutional Council's judgement was enough to throw the outcome into question given the tiny majority.

[Hash]

A few days old now, but:

Lénaïck Adam (LREM): 5927 - 43.10%

Davy Rimane (Reg-FI): 4830 - 35.12%

David Riché (PSG): 1385 - 10.07%

José Makébé (DVD): 683 - 4.97%

Richard Joigny (PPG): 305 - 2.22%

Jean-Philippe Dolor (LREM diss): 271 - 1.97 %

Jérôme Harbourg (FN): 248 - 1.80%

Georges Mignot (UPR): 104 - 0.76%


Turnout was 34.8%, higher than in either round of the actual législatives last year, and higher than the average turnout in most by-elections to begin with. 14,110 votes cast; 13,753 valid votes. Both Adam and Rimane won more votes than in 2017-R1.

Like in 2017, a very big regional divide between the two leading candidates:


Perhaps a dedicated thread might make sense: there are 5 more by-elections to come between now and the end of April. There's one this weekend in Haute-Garonne 8th.

[andrea]

Re-run of Haute Garonne 8ème circonscription

Joël Aviragnet (PS) 38.74%
Michel Monsarrat (LREM) 20.31%
Philippe Gimenez (FI) 13.02%
Marie-Christine Parolin (FN) 11.73%
Philippe Maurin (LR) 4.94%

turnout 34.07%

Compared to original first round

PS +20.9 points
LREM -13.1
FI -1.1
FN -3.5
LR -4

In the original second round Aviragnet won by less than 100 votes

[andrea]

Mar 7, 2018 1:42:51 GMT Hash said:

A few days old now, but:

Lénaïck Adam (LREM): 5927 - 43.10%

Davy Rimane (Reg-FI): 4830 - 35.12%

David Riché (PSG): 1385 - 10.07%

José Makébé (DVD): 683 - 4.97%

Richard Joigny (PPG): 305 - 2.22%

Jean-Philippe Dolor (LREM diss): 271 - 1.97 %

Jérôme Harbourg (FN): 248 - 1.80%

Georges Mignot (UPR): 104 - 0.76%


.

Adam Lénaïck re-elected with 50.65%

[finsobruce]

Mar 11, 2018 21:09:44 GMT andrea said:

Re-run of Haute Garonne 8ème circonscription

Joël Aviragnet (PS) 38.74%
Michel Monsarrat (LREM) 20.31%
Philippe Gimenez (FI) 13.02%
Marie-Christine Parolin (FN) 11.73%
Philippe Maurin (LR) 4.94%

turnout 34.07%

Compared to original first round

PS +20.9 points
LREM -13.1
FI -1.1
FN -3.5
LR -4

In the original second round Aviragnet won by less than 100 votes

Hang on - did the PS actually win something?

[maxque]

Mar 11, 2018 23:57:55 GMT finsobruce said:

Mar 11, 2018 21:09:44 GMT andrea said:

Re-run of Haute Garonne 8ème circonscription

Joël Aviragnet (PS) 38.74%
Michel Monsarrat (LREM) 20.31%
Philippe Gimenez (FI) 13.02%
Marie-Christine Parolin (FN) 11.73%
Philippe Maurin (LR) 4.94%

turnout 34.07%

Compared to original first round

PS +20.9 points
LREM -13.1
FI -1.1
FN -3.5
LR -4

In the original second round Aviragnet won by less than 100 votes

Hang on - did the PS actually win something?

Not yet, but it will be true next Sunday.

[Hash]

It's a seat which has been held by the left since the 1960s* - even in 1968 and 1993 - so ordinarily a result like that in that sort of constituency would be nothing exceptional. In 2012, PS candidate Carole Delga was elected in the first round (she is now regional president of fake 'Occitanie' and the incumbent's main surrogate). But these are extraordinary times.

* Hippolyte Ducos, the archetype of the bland but respected local RadSoc notable, was deputy between 1919 and 1940 and 1951 to 1970. He was opposed by Socialist candidates up until his penultimate reelection in 1967, even as he was the candidate of the FGDS in 1967-8 and ended his long parliamentary career in the left-wing FGDS/PS group in the National Assembly. He was not much of a 'left-winger', and even in his 1967 'profession de foi' he labelled himself as the candidate of the "Democratic and Socialist Left, of agriculture defence and taxpayers' defence" (défense agricole et défense des contribuables).

[andrea]

Loriet - 4th constituency

Door (LR) leads with 38.2%. Run off with LREM (20.2%).
FN 13.88% PS 6.65% PCF 5.96% Debout la France 5.23%  FI 4.96%. Rest below 2%

First round last year: LREN 28.6% LR 23.8% FN 20.8% PCF 11.6 (no FI) PS 5.48 Debout la France 3.01

Door should be re-elected comfortably next week.

Haute Garonne-8th constituency:

Joël Aviragnet (PS) wins run off very easily: 70%
Last year it was PS 50.1% LREM 49.9%

Mayotte-1th constituency:

Ali (DVG, last time elected with PS label, then joined LREM group) 36.15%
Chakrina (LR) 32.59%


Last time they were basically tied. I guess it will be close again

[Hash]

The Mayotte by-election took place amidst massive protests, originally sparked by issues like criminality and illegal immigration (from the Comoros), and there were some incidents during the voting which make me thing that it wouldn't take very much to overturn the final result if it as close as last time. Given the government's very poor response to the crisis, it is perhaps a bit surprising that the de facto macronista incumbent (albeit not endorsed by either LREM or PS because of some indictment) is ahead, but overseas politics are bizarre to outsiders. The by-election also suddenly got massive national attention when Panzergirl endorsed the LR candidate, which has sparked a whole load of speculation about whether or not this was the first step to formal LR-FN alliances (it would definitely fit with Panzergirl's Back to the '80s theme, complete with adoption of a name used in the 1980s). The FN says it is a one-off thing and not formally styled as an endorsement of LR, while LR has cautiously rejected the FN's support although it's no secret that FN and LR are closer than ever and the taboo over openly wishing for LR-FN alliances has been broken (by United Russia agents Thierry Mariani and Nicolas Dhuicq).

Also, Haute-Garonne results (and presumably Loiret results next week) further confirming the trend of the anti-macronista/non-LREM vote massively coalescing around the non-LREM option in runoffs like the June 2017 runoffs. Would be a very, very concerning trend for Macron et al. if it continues this way.

[Hash]

LR holds the Loiret seat with 67% (50.01% in 2017...), again with non-LREM vote massively coalescing around the non-LREM candidate. In Mayotte, however, the de fato macronista incumbent was reelected with an increased majority (54-55% or so of the vote), the unwanted FN endorsement apparently not being of great help to LR. So, while macronismo is 0/4 in the metro by-elections (-1), it is 2 for 2 in the overseas by-elections.

Next two by-elections will be very inconsequential and tell us very little about anything although that won't stop some people from making broad claims on their basis:
8-22 April: Expats 5th - Spain, Portugal, Andorra and Monaco. LREM incumbent who won with two-thirds of the vote, but 13.5% turnout, in a runoff in June 2017 (only held because, despite winning over 50% in the first round, turnout was absurdly low - 16%). Will probably set a new record for record low turnout, below 10%.
15-22 April: Wallis-et-Futuna. A remote, unique place with 'bizarre', incomprehensible and inexplainable politics (although historically "right-wing"). The incumbent was elected in a 2013 by-election with UMP support... but joined the PS group once in Paris... he was reelected in 2017 classified by the Parisian gnomes as 'DVG' (but pro-Macron)... but joined the Constructives (UDI-Agir et indépendants) group.

[John Chanin]

Wallis & Futuna only has a population of around 10,000. Surprised it has a whole seat to itself, and isn't included in French Polynesia.

[Hash]

Mar 26, 2018 8:29:46 GMT John Chanin said:

Wallis & Futuna only has a population of around 10,000. Surprised it has a whole seat to itself, and isn't included in French Polynesia.

Since 1875, the tradition holds that each department (or equivalent) is entitled to at least one (if not two - as was the norm between 1945 and 2010) deputy in the National Assembly, and that the department (or, under the Third Republic, the arrondissement, an administrative subdivision of the department) forms the basis for the election of deputies and senators. The only exception to that 'rule' is Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy, which are grouped in a single constituency since their separation from Guadeloupe in 2007 despite being two separate collectivities (although both are represented on their own by one senator each) -- in part because Saint-Barth has less than 10,000 people and both islands are geographically close to one another.

Wallis-et-Futuna isn't even the least populated constituency in France: Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon has just 6,000 people. Wallis-et-Futuna is located over 1,800km from New Caledonia and over 2,800km from French Polynesia, and has relatively little in common with either of them (although there are now more Wallisians and Futunians in New Caledonia than on the islands themselves) and Wallis-et-Futuna has a unique political status and organization which would make inclusion in another collectivity difficult and likely controversial (and vice-versa, New Caledonia also has a unique status). I doubt the Kanak and Polynesian nationalists would particularly enjoy seeing their already tenuous electoral clout drowned a bit further by the inclusion of distant, traditionalist/conservative Wallis-et-Futuna in a constituency of theirs.

If Macron's stupid idea to reduce the number of seats and elect a share of them by PR does go forward, it will necessitate another redistricting and would pose a major challenge the old 'republican' tradition of one member for each department, and not only for the overseas collectivities.

[Hash]

I was right: turnout in the 5th expats constituency was just 7.87%, or 6,960. The results were a bit counter-intuitive:

Cazebonne (LREM-UDI incumbent) 35.15% (-15.21%)
Ralle-Andreolli (FI-EELV-PCF-G.s) 28.45% (+12.93%)
Chambat (LR-LC-CPNT) 13.95% (-1.16%)
LREM diss. 7.49% (new)
PS 7.47% (-0.66%)
far-right 4.03% (+3.28%)... in absence of a FN candidate (5.7% in 2017)
LR diss. 1.79%
Hunault (DVD) 0.92% -- former RPR/NC deputy from Loire-Atlantique (1993-2012), inexplicably running here 6 years after losing his seat
Some dude 0.75%

There was also a municipal by-election in Schiltigheim, an historically working-class suburb of Strasbourg of roughly 31,700 people. It has an old centre-left social democratic/socialist tradition going back, at least, to 1919 -- the main reason I say 'centre-left social democratic' is because, like elsewhere in strange Elsass (hi Mulhouse), long-time mayor Alfred Muller (1977-2008) quit the PS in 1985 (bitter because the town didn't get the synchotron) and created his own 'rocardien' local party (MDA) which evolved towards the centre-right and ended up allying with Jean-Marie Bockel's Gauche moderne and the UMP in 2008 (but lost to a PS list). The right regained the city in 2014 with a coalition between Jean-Marie Kutner and Christian Ball. The tensions between the two factions of the new right-wing municipal majority (Ball vs. Kutner), with the former accusing the later of being authoritarian and refusing to support the municipal budget last winter before over half of the 31-seat right-wing majority resigned, sparking a by-election. LREM didn't run or support any list, because of local divisions (already!) and, allegedly, according to one account, because of a secret poll saying that they'd get their ass handed to them if they did (the figure was 13%). FI was particularly giddy because Mélenchon finished first in Schilick in 2017 with 27%, although the city doesn't have a communist history and the PCF/radical left has historically been weak (the FG list got 5% in 2014).

First round results were:
Ball (unofficially LR) 35.8%
Dambach (green) 20.41%
Kutner (DVD incumbent) 19.78%
Jampoc-Bertrand (PS-PCF) 15.09%
Baader (FI) 7.56%
Jacquel (LO) 1.86%

The PS-PCF list merged with Dambach, while Kutner is unwanted by everyone else and will stand alone until the end. FI, the other major loser of the first round besides the mayor, appears unlikely to merge with Dambach, mostly because of cultist quackery.

[Hash]

By-election in distant Wallis and Futuna today.




Wallis and Futuna - 16,000 km from Paris - is probably the oddest French overseas territories (of the inhabited ones), in part because it is the only territory of the French Republic which has monarchs.

Wallis and Futuna is made up of three main islands: Wallis ('Uvea), the most populated island (75,64 km²); Futuna, located 230 km from Wallis (46,28 km²) and the practically uninhabited island of Alofi, separated from Futuna by a 2 km channel. Wallis and Futuna is the only French territory which is not divided into communes, but rather composed of three customary kingdoms: 'Uvea (Wallis), subdivided into three districts (Hihifo, Hahake and Mu'a), Alo (southeastern Futuna and Alofi) and Sigave (northwestern Futuna), each of them with a monarch elected by local nobles and assisted by ministers. The customary monarchs are recognized and protected by law. Since 2016, 'Uvea has two kings disputing the thrones, with one officially recognized by the French authorities.

The islands were converted to Catholicism by Marist missionaries in the 1840s, but only became French protectorates beginning in 1888. Since 1961, Wallis and Futuna has been an overseas collectivity with a superior administrator (prefect) appointed by Paris, a directly elected territorial assembly, a territorial council presided by the superior administrator with the three monarchs and three other members appointed by the superior administrator.

The native population of Wallis and Futuna is Polynesian and speak Wallisian or Futunian, which are not mutually intelligible. Most speak French, which is the only recognized official language and the language of public administration and education, but according to the 2013 census, only 13% spoke French most often in their families (although 87% can speak it).

Wallis and Futuna has a declining and aging population of 12,197 (2013). Population has been declining since 2003 because a declining birth rate is no longer compensating for emigration, primarily young adults leaving to study and work in New Caledonia and metropolitan France. There are now more Wallisians and Futunians in New Caledonia (about 21,000) than on the islands themselves.

'French politics' in Wallis and Futuna are largely incomprehensible to outsiders (yours truly included), because they are dominated by local political and customary dynamics rather than any real 'French' ideological or partisan issues. Lacking an indigenous nationalist movement as in French Polynesia or New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna's politics tend to be traditionalist and conservative in the literal sense. Perhaps as a result, it has historically returned Gaullist deputies and senators. Between 1967 and 1989, the territory's deputy was Benjamin Brial (RPR), son of a French father and a Wallisian queen. A 'left-wing' deputy was elected in 1989 and reelected in 1993, Kamilo Gata (PRG), who was defeated in 1997 by Victor Brial (RPR), nephew of Benjamin Brial. In 2007, Brial was defeated by Albert Likuvalu (PRG-PS), leader of the local 'left-wing' opposition in the assembly.

Legislative elections since 2012 have attracted some notice among French anoraks, if only because the winners ended up sitting with parliamentary groups opposite that of the 'label' with which they were elected: in June 2012, David Vergé (DVD-UMP) was elected with a 42 vote majority in a triangulaire and then joined the PS group; his election was invalidated, and the 2013 by-election was won by Napole Polutele (DVD-UMP) in a triangulaire, who also then went on to join the PS group. Polutele, who supported FBM, was reelected by the first round with the 'DVG' label in June 2017, but then joined the centre-right 'constructives' group. I guess Wallis and Futuna is a very #nolabels kind of place.

Polutele's election was invalidated by the Constitutional Council because of the absence of about 60 signatures on registration sheets, which caused him to lose his absolute majority (he won with 3436 votes against 3159 for his closest opponent, Sylvain Brial, and 244 for a third candidate). The by-election was a rematch of the 2017 election between the top two candidates: the incumbent, Napole Polutele (member of the territorial majority in the assembly), now supported by the UDI (colleagues in the 'constructives' group), against Sylvain Brial, member of the territorial opposition in the assembly (made up of the left and non-inscrits miscellanea) who was labelled as 'DVG' in 2017 but is now supported by LR (whose official candidate won just 3.6% in 2017). However, the territory's LR senator (since 1998), Robert Laufoaulu, supported the incumbent. Sylvain Brial, a relative newcomer in politics (first elected in the 2017 territorial elections), is from the Brial political dynasty - he is the brother of former RPR/UMP deputy Victor Brial and the nephew of former UDR/RPR deputy Benjamin Brial. In local political terms, Polutele was the candidate of the 11-member majority in the assembly (presided by former deputy David Vergé) while Brial was the candidate of the 9-member opposition, which includes two members from the historically 'left-wing' grouping on the islands (USPWF).

Turnout was 84.2%, even higher than in the actual election (81.3%). The results

Sylvain Brial (ind. - DVD, supp. LR) 3,656 - 51.61%
Napole Polutele (ind. - DVD, supp. UDI)* 3,428 - 48.39%

Brial won thanks to massive support on his native island of Futuna, where he got 1772 votes (78%) against 500 for Polutele, who won on the most populated island of Wallis with over 60% (2928 to 1884). I truly hope that he continues the trend and just goes and join the LREM group or something now.

[Hash]

In Schiltigheim, incumbent mayor Jean-Marie Kutner (DVD/ex-UDI), a distant third in the first round and facing near-certain defeat in a three-way runoff, unexpectedly withdrew on April 10 and endorsed the green-left list of Danielle Dambach while settling scores with his former ally, Christian Ball (described by the mayor as a 'putsch leader'). Meanwhile, FI, which won just 7.6% last week, deliberately avoided even endorsing the green-left list (merged with the PS-PCF list which finished fourth), stating that they would "remain vigilant about the real development of participatory democracy, and ecological and social projects put forward by the alliance of greens, PS and PCF". Ball described his opponent's list as an "ecologist-socialo-communist alliance" (using the far-right's old 'socialo-communistes' rhetoric).

Today's result is rather unexpected:

Dambach (green-PS-PCF) 3510 - 54.5%
Ball (LR) 2930 - 45.5%

Turnout was 36.3% (6651), similar to last week. Dambach gains 1261 votes from the total her list and the PS-PCF list last week; Ball gains only 662, meaning that Kutner's voters (1253) didn't support the 'putsch leader' and a good number of them likely followed the outgoing mayor's lead in voting for Dambach.

'Schilick', the third-largest commune in the Bas-Rhin (and second-largest in metro Strasbourg), swings back to the left (with an 'alternative', green, mayor to boot).

[Merseymike]

Wonder how long it will take forvthe French left to re-assemble
It certainly seems that they have started to see through Macron who I think will come to be viewed as part of the liberal centre-right.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 16, 2018 10:13:52 GMT Merseymike said:

Wonder how long it will take forvthe French left to re-assemble
It certainly seems that they have started to see through Macron who I think will come to be viewed as part of the liberal centre-right.

Until the PS sort themselves out, that old chancer JLM and tosser Hamon vanish, and the PCF stop being the PCF, I can't see who will bring this together. The French Left is as prone to the cult of a strongman as the French Right.

[Merseymike]

Apr 16, 2018 13:47:41 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Apr 16, 2018 10:13:52 GMT Merseymike said:

Wonder how long it will take forvthe French left to re-assemble
It certainly seems that they have started to see through Macron who I think will come to be viewed as part of the liberal centre-right.

Until the PS sort themselves out, that old chancer JLM and tosser Hamon vanish, and the PCF stop being the PCF, I can't see who will bring this together. The French Left is as prone to the cult of a strongman as the French Right.

Undoubtedly! I'd argue that a woman may be the best option. But whether it's too late for Martine Aubry.. ... If only they had chosen her instead of the useless Hollande who gave a job to the slimeball Macron.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Apr 16, 2018 13:52:24 GMT Merseymike said:

Apr 16, 2018 13:47:41 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Until the PS sort themselves out, that old chancer JLM and tosser Hamon vanish, and the PCF stop being the PCF, I can't see who will bring this together. The French Left is as prone to the cult of a strongman as the French Right.

Undoubtedly! I'd argue that a woman may be the best option. But whether it's too late for Martine Aubry.. ... If only they had chosen her instead of the useless Hollande who gave a job to the slimeball Macron.

Definitely better, but has her baggage, particularly around the asbestos industry.

Part of the problem is the clan nature of the PS.  Aubry and the old Mauroy gang, the Hollande-Royal axis and other enarques.  Although the recent disasters might have blown that apart.

If they want to go Left, they would possibly be best trying someone like Vincent Peillon, or skip a generation and go for Valerie Rabault, Olivier Faure, or even Matthias Fekl.

[Merseymike]

Apr 16, 2018 14:56:49 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Apr 16, 2018 13:52:24 GMT Merseymike said:

Undoubtedly! I'd argue that a woman may be the best option. But whether it's too late for Martine Aubry.. ... If only they had chosen her instead of the useless Hollande who gave a job to the slimeball Macron.

Definitely better, but has her baggage, particularly around the asbestos industry.

Part of the problem is the clan nature of the PS.  Aubry and the old Mauroy gang, the Hollande-Royal axis and other enarques.  Although the recent disasters might have blown that apart.

If they want to go Left, they would possibly be best trying someone like Vincent Peillon, or skip a generation and go for Valerie Rabault, Olivier Faure, or even Matthias Fekl.

Seems like the sensible way to go, given the presence of Macron, who will take much of the centre and I think appeals more to the right anyway