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Post by Antiochian on Nov 18, 2016 12:59:52 GMT
It's completely unnecessary? And could, if anything, harm the fragile project of rebuilding the Conservatives in Scotland. On the other hand seeing the SNP losing a bundle of their constituencies would bring me a great deal of joy. I am thinking of a wider picture. The majority is narrow and there are too many malcontents in both houses. We need to sort out the HOL very quickly. We need to be able to rely upon a new set of policies in a new manifesto validated by a bigger majority. It re-sets the clock to 2016/17 and thus an expected next GE in 2021/22 well after the exit from EU and matters have settled down again. This is bigger and more important than just Scotland. Who's we? Your designation is UKIP and you sound like you're from Tory Central Office.. Invasion of the Party Snatchers?  |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 18, 2016 13:03:23 GMT
Yes But HOW  ?? Not my field and not really my concern. I have no doubt it can be engineered with real determination to have one. The most likely way of doing so would see PM Corbyn fighting the election against former PM May . See 1905/1906 for the only precedent . |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 18, 2016 13:10:54 GMT
I am thinking of a wider picture. The majority is narrow and there are too many malcontents in both houses. We need to sort out the HOL very quickly. We need to be able to rely upon a new set of policies in a new manifesto validated by a bigger majority. It re-sets the clock to 2016/17 and thus an expected next GE in 2021/22 well after the exit from EU and matters have settled down again. This is bigger and more important than just Scotland. Who's we? Your designation is UKIP and you sound like you're from Tory Central Office.. Invasion of the Party Snatchers? Perhaps that should have been a 'They'? Makes no difference to the content does it? I have never made a secret of being a 'Conservative in Exile' and the 'We' in my mind is being a part of the political 'Right'. Is that difficult to grasp or to understand? |
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Post by Antiochian on Nov 18, 2016 13:26:34 GMT
Who's we? Your designation is UKIP and you sound like you're from Tory Central Office.. Invasion of the Party Snatchers? Perhaps that should have been a 'They'? Makes no difference to the content does it? I have never made a secret of being a 'Conservative in Exile' and the 'We' in my mind is being a part of the political 'Right'. Is that difficult to grasp or to understand? Exile should be made of sterner stuff!.... Anyway isn't May a Leftie wannabe these days?  However with UKIP (like the Greens) skipping every second by-election they are looking like the Liberals in the 1960s! It would appear that UKIP's sole role now is to keep May "honest" on her "Brexit means Brexit" promise. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 18, 2016 13:37:56 GMT
Perhaps that should have been a 'They'? Makes no difference to the content does it? I have never made a secret of being a 'Conservative in Exile' and the 'We' in my mind is being a part of the political 'Right'. Is that difficult to grasp or to understand? Exile should be made of sterner stuff!.... Anyway isn't May a Leftie wannabe these days? However with UKIP (like the Greens) skipping every second by-election they are looking like the Liberals in the 1960s! It would appear that UKIP's sole role now is to keep May "honest" on her "Brexit means Brexit" promise. Exile comes in many formats. I have passed my fuming and plotting stage where I craved the collapse of the Conservative party and the demise of Cameron. He has gone and virtually in disgrace. They have turned to the right even they talk a different talk? May is more my sort than you may think and I used to think. She is more right than I thought and a bit authoritarian which suits me. And Yes, UKIP's main role now is 'To keep May honest' until we find a new one, if we do? |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 18, 2016 13:51:55 GMT
To get a fresh mandate on new prospectus. To steam out last vestiges of Cameroonism. To ease out some malcontents. To get a larger majority. To put in a Lords Reform Bill to manifesto. To validate the Brexit policy. To take advantage of current Labour weakness. To take advantage of other paries shortage of funds. To take advantage of public mood. To get in again before the LDs improve position further week by week. To take advantage of UKIP dissolution. By calling one on any pretext that can be made effective. Ok so summing up putting Conservative Party before country but How ? Incidentally , the 2 parties currently short of funds are the Conservatives and especially UKIP . Labour and Lib Dem funds are relatively healthy . It would be a pragmatic political decision. It is what politics is all about.....Or hadn't you noticed? All such lofty talk of party over country is akin to talk of patriotism, the last refuge of a rhetorical scoundrel! Funds would soon change if an election were to be called. Even UKIP would be well funded in order to damage the Labour vote and permit Conservative gains. |
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Post by A Brown on Nov 18, 2016 14:57:45 GMT
Annandale North full result:
Conservative: 2,041 (57.4%) Scottish National: 749 (21.1%) Labour: 611 (17.2%) Green: 152 (4.3%) Total valid votes: 3,553 Change from 2012:Conservative +16.9 Scottish National +4.3 Labour -2.4 Green -10.0 Change from 2012 by-election:
Conservative +11.4 Scottish National +11.7 Labour -8.1 Green -7.4 Another stinker for the SNP. This would equate to 2 Conservative councillors, 1 SNP and a close race for the final seat between the Conservatives and Labour (most likely favouring Labour). 'Stinker' is a bit strong as they narrowly achieved quota but it doesn't tell anything that we don't already know about how the SNP is likely to perform in middle class and rural areas next year i.e flatlining or falling back a bit in Perthshire, rural Stirlingshire and the small town and rural Northeast. I still expect the SNP to get about 36% overall next year which will still be their best result ever but won't gain as many seats as expected and will struggle to get more than 2-4 councils outright. That said this is just about the Tories strongest ward in Scotland on all metrics anyway. |
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Post by justin124 on Nov 18, 2016 16:08:15 GMT
The crossbreaks from the Mori poll are interesting. In England the Tories have a 9% lead – the same margin as for GB as a whole. In May 2015 the Tories lead Labour by 9.5% in England which means that Mori is implying a tiny 0.25% swing from Tory to Labour there. Were that to happen it would result in 3 Labour gains – which would halve the Tory majority to 6. On the other hand, the Scotland crossbreak has the Tories on 37% and the SNP on 38%.- which I suspect stretches credulity a bit! It's completely unnecessary? And could, if anything, harm the fragile project of rebuilding the Conservatives in Scotland. On the other hand seeing the SNP losing a bundle of their constituencies would bring me a great deal of joy. I am thinking of a wider picture. The majority is narrow and there are too many malcontents in both houses. We need to sort out the HOL very quickly. We need to be able to rely upon a new set of policies in a new manifesto validated by a bigger majority. It re-sets the clock to 2016/17 and thus an expected next GE in 2021/22 well after the exit from EU and matters have settled down again. This is bigger and more important than just Scotland. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 18, 2016 16:37:20 GMT
Annandale North full result:
Conservative: 2,041 (57.4%) Scottish National: 749 (21.1%) Labour: 611 (17.2%) Green: 152 (4.3%) Total valid votes: 3,553 Change from 2012:Conservative +16.9 Scottish National +4.3 Labour -2.4 Green -10.0 Change from 2012 by-election:
Conservative +11.4 Scottish National +11.7 Labour -8.1 Green -7.4 Another stinker for the SNP. This would equate to 2 Conservative councillors, 1 SNP and a close race for the final seat between the Conservatives and Labour (most likely favouring Labour). 'Stinker' is a bit strong as they narrowly achieved quota but it doesn't tell anything that we don't already know about how the SNP is likely to perform in middle class and rural areas next year i.e flatlining or falling back a bit in Perthshire, rural Stirlingshire and the small town and rural Northeast. I still expect the SNP to get about 36% overall next year which will still be their best result ever but won't gain as many seats as expected and will struggle to get more than 2-4 councils outright. That said this is just about the Tories strongest ward in Scotland on all metrics anyway. Yes, I don't see how putting their vote up by 12% since the 2012 by-election can be described as a "stinker" for the SNP! Bit of a stinker for Labour and the Greens, and good for the Tories but no doubt they picked up most of the 7.4% who voted Lib Dem or UKIP last time |
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 18, 2016 17:01:48 GMT
Bath & North East Somerset, Abbey - Conservative gain from Green
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 350 | 32.8% | +2.4% | +3.8% | +1.0% | +1.2% | Liberal Democrat | 273 | 25.6% | +4.7% | +4.8% | -8.8% | -7.7% | Green | 252 | 23.6% | -4.5% | -5.3% | +4.2% | +3.4% | Labour | 126 | 11.0% | -4.9% | -5.5% | -2.6% | -3.2% | Independent | 43 | 4.0% | +0.1% | +0.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 23 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,067 |
| 28% | 29% | 47% | 49% |
Swing Green to Conservative ~3½% / 4½% since 2015 but Conservative to Green ~1½% / 1% since 2011 - also Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~1% / ½% since 2015 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~5% / 4½% since 2011
Council now 37 Conservative, 15 Liberal Democrat, 6 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Green, 1 Local Resident Independent, 1 No Party
Dumfries & Galloway, Annandale North - Conservative hold although previous Councillor was sitting as Labour | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 B | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Conservative | 2,041 | 57.4% | +11.4% | +16.9% | +20.2% | SNP | 749 | 21.1% | +11.7% | +4.3% | +8.1% | Labour | 611 | 17.2% | -8.2% | -2.4% | +2.2% | Green | 152 | 4.3% | -7.5% | -10.0% | +1.4% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.3% | -8.9% | -13.7% | UKIP |
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| Independent 1 |
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| -10.0% | Independent 2 |
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| -8.2% | Total votes | 3,553 |
| 90% | 82% | 65% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~10% since both 2012 and 2012 by-election and ~9% since 2007 - little swing between Conservative and SNP since 2012 by-election but SNP to Conservative ~6% since both 2012 and 2007 Council now 15 Various Independent, 13 Labour, 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 1 Liberal Democrat Harborough, Misterton - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2011 | 2007 result | Conservative | 257 | 50.4% | -24.7% | -26.9% | unopposed
| Labour | 119 | 23.3% | -1.6% | +0.7% |
| Liberal Democrat | 77 | 15.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| UKIP | 57 | 11.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Total votes | 510 |
| 32% | 48% |
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Swing Conservative to Labour 11½% since 2015 and ~14% since 2011 both when there were only 2 candidates Council now 29 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat
Welwyn & Hatfield, Haldens - Conservative hold - amended for Conservative vote 507 not 502 | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Conservative | 507 | 34.3% | -1.1% | -2.5% | Labour | 454 | 30.7% | -7.0% | -5.8% | Liberal Democrat | 437 | 29.5% | +17.7% | +19.9% | Green | 81 | 5.5% | -9.6% | -11.6% | Total votes | 1,479 |
| 71% | 81% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~3% / 1¾% since May Council now 28 Conservative, 15 Labour, 5 Liberal Democrat
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??
However with UKIP (like the Greens) skipping every second by-election they are looking like the Liberals in the 1960s! 