By-elections - November 17th

[maxque]

Abbey - Bath & North East Somerset UA - Jonathan Carr (Green) resigned to move in the Home Counties, because he could not afford housing in Bath area, due to the "very high costs of living" in Bath. He was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Con 1158/985, Grn 1071, LD 798/741, Lab 639, Ind 148
2011: LD 773/662, Con 716/646, Grn 436, Lab 323
2007: Con 728/661, LD 633/621, Grn 345, Ind 225
2003: Con 680/613, LD 587/561, Ind 166/82

Gerry Curran (Liberal Democrats)
Vicky Drew (Labour Party)
Lizzie Gladwyn (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Marc Hooper (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Jenny Knight (Independent)
Vipul Patel (Green Party)

Annandale North - Dumfries & Galloway - Graeme Tait (elected as Conservative, defected to the Independent Conservative and Unionist group in September 2013 due to "a loss of confidence" in the group leader with 6 other councillors, he joined Labour in March 2014, because he was impressed by Labour's role in the Labour-SNP administration) resigned to "concentrate on his career", a few weeks before being disqualified for non-attendance. He was a councillor since the 2012 by-election.

Nov 2012 by: Con 1819, Lab 1002, Grn 464, SNP 371, LD 208, UKIP 89 (final count: Con 1980, Lab 1149, Grn 617)
2012: Con 652/564/531, Lab 845, SNP 724, Grn 615, LD 383 (elected: Lab, Con, Con, SNP on 4th count; Con 885, Con 875, SNP 796, Grn 755 for 3 seats).
2007: Con 1011/751/277, Ind 547/446, Lab 818, LD 749, SNP 710, Grn 159 (elected: Con, LD, Lab, Con on 6th count; final count: LD 1043, Lab 1002, Con 959, Ind 934 for 3 seats)

Chris Ballance (Scottish Green Party)
Douglas Fairbairn (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Sylvia Moffat (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Adam Wilson (Scottish Labour Party)

Misterton - Harborough DC - John Everett (Conservative) resigned due to moving to Brentwood, Essex, to be closer to his family. He was a councillor since 2006, the Chair of the Ethical Governance Committee and the Champion for Armed Forces. He was also the Chairman of the Council in 2012-2013. During for working life, he was a school assistant master, a business owner and an author.

2015: Con 1192, Lab 395
2011: Con 825, Lab 242
2007: Con unopposed
Mar 2006 by: Con 425, LD 266, Lab 47
2003: Con 556, Lab 190

Jonathan Bateman (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Liz Marsh (Labour Party)
Bill Piper (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Martin Sarfas (Liberal Democrats)

Haldens - Welwyn Hatfield BC - Malcolm Spinks (Conservative) resigned for health reasons. He was a councillor since May.
2016-2018 term

2016: Lab 782/655/571, Con 734/666/622, Grn 312, LD 246/168/117

Lynne Allison (The Green Party candidate)
Nathaniel Chapman (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Anthony Dennis (Liberal Democrats)
Astrid Thorpe (Labour Party)

[maxque]

The "Independent" in Bath is an (former?) English Democrat.

[froome]

Nov 14, 2016 8:39:48 GMT maxque said:

The "Independent" in Bath is an (former?) English Democrat.

She has stood as an English Democrat in elections here before, and also I think has stood as an Independent previously as well. Obviously I don't know whether she is still a member of the EDs but have no reason to believe she isn't. She hasn't made that much effort to win votes in this by-election though, so am not expecting her to poll well.

As a Bath resident, I'll comment more fully on this by-election in the next day or so.

[mboy]

Although on paper the Bath contest looks like a 3-way between Tory/Green/LibDem, I know the LibDems have had a very good crack at it this time and it looks to be a more two-way LibDem/Tory contest this year.

A lot depends on turnout. The big Green Party vote last year is almost certainly due to the students turning out, which they are unlikely to on Thursday. The Tories have chosen a candidate who can fairly be called quite eccentric, and I'm not sure how well that will go down with Tory voters. Bath voted strongly to Remain, and Bath Tories are more Cameron than May. In addition, the new Tory MP for Bath has just been front-page scandal in The Sun over an incident I wont go into, but let's just say it isn't good for him. Labour appear non-existent.

The factors are all there for a Lib Dem gain there on Thursday, but we'll see what happens on the day.

[marksenior]

The Lib Dem candidate in the Misterton by election back in 2006 was and still is a poster on politicalbetting.com . Back then he was a pressed paper candidate with instructions from his wife that he would be divorced if he won . He was more than happy with his decent 2nd place .

[spqr]

Nov 14, 2016 6:19:11 GMT maxque said:

Annandale North - Dumfries & Galloway - Graeme Tait (elected as Conservative, defected to the Independent Conservative and Unionist group in September 2013 due to "a loss of confidence" in the group leader with 6 other councillors, he joined Labour in March 2014, because he was impressed by Labour's role in the Labour-SNP administration) resigned to "concentrate on his career", a few weeks before being disqualified for non-attendance. He was a councillor since the 2012 by-election.

Nov 2012 by: Con 1819, Lab 1002, Grn 464, SNP 371, LD 208, UKIP 89 (final count: Con 1980, Lab 1149, Grn 617)
2012: Con 652/564/531, Lab 845, SNP 724, Grn 615, LD 383 (elected: Lab, Con, Con, SNP on 4th count; Con 885, Con 875, SNP 796, Grn 755 for 3 seats).
2007: Con 1011/751/277, Ind 547/446, Lab 818, LD 749, SNP 710, Grn 159 (elected: Con, LD, Lab, Con on 6th count; final count: LD 1043, Lab 1002, Con 959, Ind 934 for 3 seats)

Chris Ballance (Scottish Green Party)
Douglas Fairbairn (Scottish Conservative and Unionist)
Sylvia Moffat (Scottish National Party (SNP))
Adam Wilson (Scottish Labour Party)

Chris Ballance was a list MSP for the South of Scotland in the 2003-07 parliament.  He was also the secretary of the Carbeth Hutters' Association during their rent strike in 1999 (which led to his eviction).

Here's some info on each of the candidates:
www.dng24.co.uk/four-in-running-for-council-ward-by-election/

[froome]

Nov 14, 2016 20:07:49 GMT mboy said:

Although on paper the Bath contest looks like a 3-way between Tory/Green/LibDem, I know the LibDems have had a very good crack at it this time and it looks to be a more two-way LibDem/Tory contest this year.

A lot depends on turnout. The big Green Party vote last year is almost certainly due to the students turning out, which they are unlikely to on Thursday. The Tories have chosen a candidate who can fairly be called quite eccentric, and I'm not sure how well that will go down with Tory voters. Bath voted strongly to Remain, and Bath Tories are more Cameron than May. In addition, the new Tory MP for Bath has just been front-page scandal in The Sun over an incident I wont go into, but let's just say it isn't good for him. Labour appear non-existent.

The factors are all there for a Lib Dem gain there on Thursday, but we'll see what happens on the day.

Yes we shall see on the day. I'm rather heartened to read this analysis, as if the Lib Dems really do think they are having a good crack at this, then they are much weaker here than even I thought they are.

While the Green vote in Bath certainly was helped by students switching from the Lib Dems, that wasn't a factor in the two wards where we actually gained councillors, as they both have low numbers of students compared to many Bath wards, and in Abbey many of those students are foreign and are not eligible to vote. We know precisely why we managed to gain in those wards, and have been building on that in this campaign.

I would describe the Lib Dem campaign here as risible. Their first leaflet stated in large capitals that the Greens cannot win here, but unfortunately for the Lib Dems it was delivered at the same time as our leaflet which showed what last year's vote was, and the Conservative leaflet which described it as a close race between the Conservatives and Greens. The most recent Lib Dem leaflet is a supposedly hand-written note from their candidate which appears to have been written by several people, judging by the 'hand writing', and is almost illegible for many people. However, it does helpfully remind people it is a 'two horse race'.

[marksenior]

Looking at Abbey past results , it is clear that the ward normally has a small Conservative margin over the Lib Dems . The Greens managed to get 1 councillor elected in 2015 but their actual vote of 1071 greatly overstates their true support in the ward . They and Labour only fielded 1 candidate each and a good number of Green votes were likely Labour voters giving them their 2nd vote . We shall see on Thursday how many true supporters the Greens have in Abbey in competition with a full set of opponents , I suspect they will end up back in 3rd place .

[Merseymike]

In what way is the Tory candidate in Bath eccentric other than having pink hair?
She has an unusual profile for a Tory in terms of her background and interests.

[froome]

A brief (obviously not that objective) look at the Bath candidates:

Gerry Curran (Lib Dem) - was councillor for Twerton, but lost to Labour there in 2015. A rather strange choice as candidate here, the Lib Dems should have had far better and more local potential candidates for this ward, and indeed did announce (or at least was strongly rumoured) that they had selected Manda Rigby, who was their councillor here who lost in 2015, but Gerry Curran seems to have been selected at the last moment.

Vicky Drew (Labour) - one of their party's best known members in the city, she stood in Lambridge ward in 2015. Her name recognition should help them, but she isn't local to the ward.

Lizzie Gladwin (Conservative) - young and seemingly inexperienced, she is an interesting and rather odd choice as their candidate, as many of Abbey's Conservative voters are traditional elderly and well-off, and to an extent she probably epitomises much that they oppose (mboy's description as slightly eccentric is reasonable - and that would help her in many other Bath wards but not here - though she has been campaigning on core Conservative values). Much of her campaign has been on the social media, where she hasn't performed well.

Marc Hooper (UKIP) - lives about 15 miles outside the city, and doesn't appear to have campaigned in the ward at all. Bath is a poor area for UKIP and Abbey is probably one of the least promising wards for them.

Jenny Knight (Independent) - as noted elsewhere on this thread, she stood as the English Democrats candidate in the 2015 general election, getting 63 votes. At the same time she stood as an Independent in the Abbey local election, getting 148 votes. She lives in the ward.

Vipul Patel (Green) - also lives in the ward, he was one of our candidates in Walcot ward in 2015, where he was about 30 votes short of being elected (coming just behind our other candidate).

Looking forward to Thursday.

[froome]

Some good news for Thursday nighters.

The Abbey by-election in Bath only has one polling station, which is in the Guildhall, where the count will be taking place. So the count ought to start straight after 10pm and providing that there isn't a recount, the result should be known around midnight or thereabouts.

There are normally two polling stations in this ward, but Abbey is compact, so it does make some sense reducing to one (presumably to save costs), though it will mean quite a long walk there for those voters in the north-east of the ward. However, with bad weather forecast, this may depress turnout slightly.

[mboy]

"Bad weather forecast" is a bit of an understatement - the forecast is heavy rain *all day* I would expect fairly significant depression of turnout.

[Arthur Figgis]

Useless fact- I shall be working and staying in Abbey ward for a week next month. There's worse places to be sent on a training course!

[mboy]

There certainly are, you lucky boy!

Hopefully you'll be looked after by a new Lib Dem councillor

[Arthur Figgis]

Nov 16, 2016 10:13:03 GMT mboy said:

There certainly are, you lucky boy!

Hopefully you'll be looked after by a new Lib Dem councillor

It's the second time this year- I was there for a week in March, but I discovered major flaws with the new system- so we have to go back and do it again. Shame!

My predecessor in my current job came out of retirement to do consultancy work as a subject matter expert for the suppliers, so has been basically living in the ward for 5 days a week for the last 2 years, all expenses paid on top of a generous daily rate. He freely admits he wouldn't have stuck it out if they had been based in Scunthorpe or Oldham!

And hmmm. Hopefully there'll be a tinge of pink about the place by then.

[evergreenadam]

Nov 16, 2016 8:14:24 GMT froome said:

Some good news for Thursday nighters.

The Abbey by-election in Bath only has one polling station, which is in the Guildhall, where the count will be taking place. So the count ought to start straight after 10pm and providing that there isn't a recount, the result should be known around midnight or thereabouts.

There are normally two polling stations in this ward, but Abbey is compact, so it does make some sense reducing to one (presumably to save costs), though it will mean quite a long walk there for those voters in the north-east of the ward. However, with bad weather forecast, this may depress turnout slightly.

Was the reduction in polling stations specific to this by-election? Would seem unusual for any local authority to rejig polling districts before 1st December when new electoral register comes into force.

[froome]

Nov 16, 2016 10:50:57 GMT evergreenadam said:

Nov 16, 2016 8:14:24 GMT froome said:

Some good news for Thursday nighters.

The Abbey by-election in Bath only has one polling station, which is in the Guildhall, where the count will be taking place. So the count ought to start straight after 10pm and providing that there isn't a recount, the result should be known around midnight or thereabouts.

There are normally two polling stations in this ward, but Abbey is compact, so it does make some sense reducing to one (presumably to save costs), though it will mean quite a long walk there for those voters in the north-east of the ward. However, with bad weather forecast, this may depress turnout slightly.

Was the reduction in polling stations specific to this by-election? Would seem unusual for any local authority to rejig polling districts before 1st December when new electoral register comes into force.

AFAIK yes. I assume it is purely up to the electoral authority to decide on numbers of polling stations for each election, and that nothing is laid down to guide this decision (though if anyone knows differently, do tell).

Robin of this parish probably knows more about the electoral history of polling in Bath than I do, so he may know more about this decision.

[carlton43]

Nov 16, 2016 8:14:24 GMT froome said:

Some good news for Thursday nighters.

The Abbey by-election in Bath only has one polling station, which is in the Guildhall, where the count will be taking place. So the count ought to start straight after 10pm and providing that there isn't a recount, the result should be known around midnight or thereabouts.

There are normally two polling stations in this ward, but Abbey is compact, so it does make some sense reducing to one (presumably to save costs), though it will mean quite a long walk there for those voters in the north-east of the ward. However, with bad weather forecast, this may depress turnout slightly.

'Quite a long walk!'    Poor wee things!

In my patch being 5-10 miles from a polling station is common.

[edinburghtory]

Graeme Tait who resigned from the council in D&G after being a Conservative Councillor, then an Independent Conservative Councillor followed by a Labour Councillor now backs the SNP.

[Pete Whitehead]

There's no such thing as a long walk to the polling station - it is either a short walk (as mine is currently) or it's a short drive (or has in carlton's case perhaps quite a long drive). I can imagine thought that driving to and parking at this particular location could be annoying and awkward