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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 21:18:08 GMT
It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower What's the point? .... Well that was an awful lot of time and effort expended by you on something you think there is no point to. The point of my post, is that on a forum full of election anoraks, I think people tend to find elections more interesting if some areas vote for one candidate and others vote for another than if everywhere votes for the same candidate. Nothing more than that. You tend to over analyse and totally miss the point. This is Wisden for people who don't like cricket |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 7, 2017 21:22:27 GMT
Well that was an awful lot of time and effort expended by you on something you think there is no point to. The point of my post, is that on a forum full of election anoraks, I think people tend to find elections more interesting if some areas vote for one candidate and others vote for another than if everywhere votes for the same candidate. Nothing more than that. You tend to over analyse and totally miss the point. This is Wisden for people who don't like cricket But dammit, Pete, I do like cricket. Now I'm conflicted. |
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 2,564 
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Post by Sharon on May 7, 2017 21:22:59 GMT
Freakish that so many results are in the 50.*% band! Not really that many? There are 101 départements I think. Yes, there are 101 départements. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 21:26:16 GMT
But dammit, Pete, I do like cricket. Now I'm conflicted. As someone who like cricket and lives in Gloucestershire, I assume you were already conflicted  |
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Post by carlton43 on May 7, 2017 21:33:00 GMT
If I was looking for a popularity contest this is the last place I will come. Bubble? I live in Portsmouth North. It voted to leave. You most certainly wouldn't bloody win it. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 21:48:23 GMT
It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower What's the point? Once the Presidential election is over the votes in it count for nothing (as Macron would be wise to note)- they don't get you seats in the Assembly. They don't guarantee a strong position in the Assembly elections because firstly Le pen's personal vote + or - won't apply so much, and secondly because they won't be a two-horse race, all the parties will stand. And they don't necessarily suggest that those places might form the basis for a future bid by Le Pen because just about scraping past your opponent in a couple of places where the demographics favour you when you've been roundly defeated everywhere else is right out of the Corbyn playbook. It must in any case be questionable as to whether there is any point in carrying on with the Le Pen-for-President strategy. She has failed just like her father for exactly the same reason, that there is a ceiling on her appeal which is well short of a majority. Macron is not in fact a terribly strong opponent: he has no party machine, he is an establishment figure, he is short on substance - yet he still outwitted her on every front, even with terrorists doing their best to help her by serving up an atrocity (and Russian hackers probably helping her too). The fact that her ceiling is a bit higher than her father's is not that big a deal when you consider how hard she worked to re-position and detoxify FN. What exactly is she going to do to make herself more electable by 15 odd percentage points? Apart from learning how to take part in a debate without looking like a petulant moron with no grasp of the issues, which I fear is beyond her capabilities because, brace yourself, but: she's not very good.Le Pen could have been lucky and faced Fillon or Mélenchon in the 2nd round, which would have given her a chance. Macron may not be a strong candidate, but unlike the others he was inoffensive, which made it easy for those who don't care for him to vote for him anyway. Marine Le Pen is uncharismatic and a bad debater, but if the party can find a more charismatic candidate next time, they will have a shot (this require the Le Pen family to give someone with a different surname a chance). But even Le Pen might be able to win by then. France will continue to have huge integration, crime and security problems which look largely unsolvable. By 2022 Macron could very well be as unpopular as Hollande is today. If LR run Sarkozy (and his wing will take over the party now), then it can not be ruled out that Le Pen could win a run-off. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2017 21:56:56 GMT
jesus, is this the rich bit of france? surrey in the sun? Not particularly. Just very opposed to the far right. Interestingly an area which used to vote for the right and more recently opts for the left |
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Post by dizz on May 7, 2017 21:58:32 GMT
I think (guess) Le Pen takes Var & so 3 departments in total. The remaining rest don't look close.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 22:00:02 GMT
Whatever one thinks of Macron, this is another defeat for the Establishment in the sense that both the largest parties of the current National Assembly failed to have their candidates reach the second round.
Until just a matter of months ago, I believed the Right could not possibly lose this election, given the huge unpopularity of the outgoing President. But the Republicans completely blew their chance, and ended up with their role being effectively taken over by Front National, who were never going to get enough support to be able to win.
The Socialist Party seem to have been completely Pasokified - for want of a better term - and En Marche appear to have taken their place as a fresher, up-to-date image of themselves - probably on a permanent basis. Another warning, perhaps (as in Greece), of what can happen when a major left of centre party of any country completely loses its marbles.
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2017 22:00:38 GMT
Calais itself voted 57% for Le Pen. Clearly completely out of touch with the rest of France in a way that Liverpool is to England. Perhaps we should offer take it off France's hands A swap would be perfectly acceptable. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2017 22:03:57 GMT
Whatever one thinks of Macron, this is another defeat for the Establishment in the sense that both the largest parties of the current National Assembly failed to have their candidates reach the second round. Until just a matter of months ago, I believed the Right could not possibly lose this election, given the huge unpopularity of the outgoing President. But the Republicans completely blew their chance, and ended up with their role being effectively taken over by Front National, who were never going to get enough support to be able to win. The Socialist Party seem to have been completely Pasokified - for want of a better term - and En Marche appear to have taken their place as a fresher, up-to-date image of themselves - probably on a permanent basis. Another warning, perhaps (as in Greece), of what can happen when a major left of centre party of any country completely loses its marbles. Though clearly a significant portion of the left won't join En Marche. Essentially the PS only existed to get Mitterand elected. It niw looks likely that there will be a centrist social democratic party and a socialist party in its place. Remember that the Republicans are currently deeply divided too. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 7, 2017 22:08:13 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on May 7, 2017 22:08:28 GMT
Hmm. If they think that's the way to get the french onside, they might want to think again. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on May 7, 2017 22:08:57 GMT
I think (guess) Le Pen takes Var & so 3 departments in total. The remaining rest don't look close. Nope. Macron takes Var with 50.85% so Le Pen ends up with two only. |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 7, 2017 22:13:43 GMT
I think (guess) Le Pen takes Var & so 3 departments in total. The remaining rest don't look close. Nope. Macron takes Var with 50.85% so Le Pen ends up with two only. So MLP loses Haute Marne: 50.48% Corse du Sud: 50.59% Ardennes: 50.73% Var: 50.85% Meuse: 51.62% by a narrower margin than she wins PdC (52.05%). She'll be a bit miffed one suspects. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on May 7, 2017 22:15:52 GMT
Right... they do know who the Vichy lovers in this election were don't they? Of course they do. Take them back 80 years and Leave.EU types would be BUF sympathisers... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 7, 2017 22:18:55 GMT
Leave.EU respond to developments in Europe by reference to WW2. I am astonished, nay, flabbergasted. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 22:26:37 GMT
85% in Hauts-de-Seine wherever that is! how low can she go! probably 10% in Paris? It was 8% in the exit poll. |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 7, 2017 22:32:30 GMT
Macron at 86.94 in Montreuil and 84.12% in Saint Denis municipality
88.78% in Neuilly-sur-Seine
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by Sharon on May 7, 2017 22:33:39 GMT
Seine-Saint-Denis, which went to MÉLENCHON in the 1st round went 78.81% for Macron today.
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