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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 20:48:24 GMT
Corse du Sud only 50.59 for Macron. There's hope it may not be a complete white out - perhaps Le Pen could carry Var or somewhere like that 50.48% now in Haute-Marne. It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 7, 2017 20:49:27 GMT
Le Figaro breaks the results into communes. Fascinating detail.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 20:50:21 GMT
Blimey, in two of the Breton departments, Macron got 77%. and in three of them won every commune btw I wish they BBC would do subtitles for Macron's speech instead of this incredibly irritating woman translating over him |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 7, 2017 20:50:48 GMT
Closest results so far:
Haute Marne: 50.48%
Corse du Sud: 50.59%
Ardennes: 50.73%
Meuse: 51.62%
Haute Corse: 52.27%
Pyrénées Orientales: 52.88%
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 7, 2017 20:51:18 GMT
50.48% now in Haute-Marne. It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower Pas de Calais: Marine 52.05% Ainse: Marine 52.91% |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 7, 2017 20:53:15 GMT
Ardennes 50.73
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 20:56:08 GMT
It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower Pas de Calais: Marine 52.05% Ainse: Marine 52.91% Whichever site you're following is quicker than Le Figaro  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 7, 2017 20:56:52 GMT
50.48% now in Haute-Marne. It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower I would agree with that. Especially when it gets to the Vaucluse. |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 7, 2017 20:57:46 GMT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 7, 2017 20:58:27 GMT
Freakish that so many results are in the 50.*% band!
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Post by mrpastelito on May 7, 2017 21:01:35 GMT
Freakish that so many results are in the 50.*% band! Not really that many? There are 101 départements I think. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 7, 2017 21:03:30 GMT
Freakish that so many results are in the 50.*% band! Not really that many? There are 101 départements I think. Exactly - so we should only expect 1 in the 50.*% band, on average... (there have already been 4?) Edit: No - my sum assumes all percentages are equally likely, but they are obviously not - they will cluster in the 40-60 zone. Duh. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 7, 2017 21:04:28 GMT
Aisne breaks for Le Pen
Pas de Calais the same.
She is being walloped in Paris.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 21:05:42 GMT
and in three of them won every commune btw I wish they BBC would do subtitles for Macron's speech instead of this incredibly irritating woman translating over him jesus, is this the rich bit of france? surrey in the sun? More like Cornwall I guess |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 21:06:19 GMT
and in three of them won every commune btw I wish they BBC would do subtitles for Macron's speech instead of this incredibly irritating woman translating over him jesus, is this the rich bit of france? surrey in the sun? Not especially but it has trended sharply left in the last few years. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 21:06:28 GMT
Not really that many? There are 101 départements I think. Exactly - so we should only expect 1 in the 50.*% band, on average... (there have already been 4?) Edit: No - my sum assumes all percentages are equally likely, but they are obviously not - they will cluster in the 40-60 zone. Duh.They should cluster in the 60-70 zone given the average natioanlly is around 65 |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 7, 2017 21:08:32 GMT
Exactly - so we should only expect 1 in the 50.*% band, on average... (there have already been 4?) Edit: No - my sum assumes all percentages are equally likely, but they are obviously not - they will cluster in the 40-60 zone. Duh.They should cluster in the 60-70 zone given the average natioanlly is around 65 That's just because of Paris / Île-de-France though. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 21:09:13 GMT
Calais itself voted 57% for Le Pen. Clearly completely out of touch with the rest of France in a way that Liverpool is to England. Perhaps we should offer take it off France's hands
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 7, 2017 21:11:10 GMT
They should cluster in the 60-70 zone given the average natioanlly is around 65 That's just because of Paris / Île-de-France though. Not just I would have thought (but even if it is that accounts for 8 separate departments) - I'd have thought France outwith the Ile de France must be over 60% for Macron still |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 7, 2017 21:12:06 GMT
50.48% now in Haute-Marne. It looks like the 'swing' (if you could call it that) from the first round is a bit greater in the North so though I think on that swing Le Pen would carry Aisne and Pas de Calais, there might be slightly more hope in the far South where the 'swing' appears to be lower What's the point? Once the Presidential election is over the votes in it count for nothing (as Macron would be wise to note)- they don't get you seats in the Assembly. They don't guarantee a strong position in the Assembly elections because firstly Le pen's personal vote + or - won't apply so much, and secondly because they won't be a two-horse race, all the parties will stand. And they don't necessarily suggest that those places might form the basis for a future bid by Le Pen because just about scraping past your opponent in a couple of places where the demographics favour you when you've been roundly defeated everywhere else is right out of the Corbyn playbook. It must in any case be questionable as to whether there is any point in carrying on with the Le Pen-for-President strategy. She has failed just like her father for exactly the same reason, that there is a ceiling on her appeal which is well short of a majority. Macron is not in fact a terribly strong opponent: he has no party machine, he is an establishment figure, he is short on substance - yet he still outwitted her on every front, even with terrorists doing their best to help her by serving up an atrocity (and Russian hackers probably helping her too). The fact that her ceiling is a bit higher than her father's is not that big a deal when you consider how hard she worked to re-position and detoxify FN. What exactly is she going to do to make herself more electable by 15 odd percentage points? Apart from learning how to take part in a debate without looking like a petulant moron with no grasp of the issues, which I fear is beyond her capabilities because, brace yourself, but: she's not very good. |
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