Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on May 4, 2017 13:44:02 GMT
As US presidents go, Obama had a fairly positive image in France. Those likely to be put off by his endorsement are highly likely to already be Le Pen voters. He was popular over here too, but his input in the referendum didn't help Cameron much. Tbh, I'd be surprised if his involvement shifted more than a handful of votes across the whole country. It did piss off those already voting leave but that's not the same thing. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 4, 2017 14:08:07 GMT
He was popular over here too, but his input in the referendum didn't help Cameron much. Tbh, I'd be surprised if his involvement shifted more than a handful of votes across the whole country. It did piss off those already voting leave but that's not the same thing. I sincerely believe that you are profoundly wrong. The comment on putting us to be back of the queue for a trade deal I put as quite pivotal in firming up intention to vote. I think he was actually worth over a million votes. I sincerely say that. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on May 4, 2017 15:48:00 GMT
Wow, that would really be a seismic change. I would be astonished if it happens to that extent though. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 4, 2017 16:09:39 GMT
Are En Marche going to manage that many candidates?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 4, 2017 17:33:38 GMT
Tony Otim I presume they will stand in the vast majority of seats, allowing for deals with incumbents to support Macron. Keep in mind that this poll is pre-2nd round. In past elections the president-elects party has been rewarded by voters as people want the president to be able to actually carry out their agenda. If En Marche is polling just below a majority now, they have a good chance of actually achieving one come the election.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 4, 2017 22:57:28 GMT
Tony Otim I presume they will stand in the vast majority of seats, allowing for deals with incumbents to support Macron. Keep in mind that this poll is pre-2nd round. In past elections the president-elects party has been rewarded by voters as people want the president to be able to actually carry out their agenda. If En Marche is polling just below a majority now, they have a good chance of actually achieving one come the election. En March would be better off cutting deals with sympathetic incumbents from the Centre Left and Centre Right leaving them to focus efforts on seats with die hard right wing Assembly members and National Front targets. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 23:20:46 GMT
Tony Otim I presume they will stand in the vast majority of seats, allowing for deals with incumbents to support Macron. Keep in mind that this poll is pre-2nd round. In past elections the president-elects party has been rewarded by voters as people want the president to be able to actually carry out their agenda. If En Marche is polling just below a majority now, they have a good chance of actually achieving one come the election. En March would be better off cutting deals with sympathetic incumbents from the Centre Left and Centre Right leaving them to focus efforts on seats with die hard right wing Assembly members and National Front targets. Doesn't seem a logical approach if they really do have a chance to win hundreds of seats alone. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on May 4, 2017 23:42:40 GMT
En March would be better off cutting deals with sympathetic incumbents from the Centre Left and Centre Right leaving them to focus efforts on seats with die hard right wing Assembly members and National Front targets. Doesn't seem a logical approach if they really do have a chance to win hundreds of seats alone. But does Macron have the machine to deliver a large number of seats. Some well entrenched Deputies may be fairly sympathetic to what Macron is trying to achieve. Vote splitting can lead to some undesirable run-offs in the French election system. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 4, 2017 23:49:40 GMT
Doesn't seem a logical approach if they really do have a chance to win hundreds of seats alone. But does Macron have the machine to deliver a large number of seats. Some well entrenched Deputies may be fairly sympathetic to what Macron is trying to achieve. Vote splitting can lead to some undesirable run-offs in the French election system. I think that if sufficient numbers of people want to elect EM! deputies it won't matter what the state of his machine is, though there are clearly deals to be done where incumbents have been (or are likely to be) openly sympathetic to Macron. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 17:55:43 GMT
The projected turnout has increased since the debate (which eliminates all hope for Le Pen). Ifop has it at 75.5%. The polls have nearly the same result (which might be herding, but doesn't have to be).
Ifop
Macron 63%
Le Pen 37%
OpinionWay
Macron 62
Le Pen 38
Elabe
Macron 62
Le Pen 38
Odoxa
Macron 62
Le Pen 38
Harris
Macron 62
Le Pen 38
Ipsos
Macron 61.5
Le Pen 39.5
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 20:30:27 GMT
The FT published an extremely silly article which claimed that "turnout will be key" and that a lower turnout could see Le Pen overturning the polls. Later the article acknowledges that the supposed Le Pen victory scenario involves a turnout of... 50%. (Though this will obviously not happen, even in that event I would be astonished if she could overturn a 20+ point deficit.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 20:38:50 GMT
The FT published an extremely silly article which claimed that "turnout will be key" and that a lower turnout could see Le Pen overturning the polls. Later the article acknowledges that the supposed Le Pen victory scenario involves a turnout of... 50%. (Though this will obviously not happen, even in that event I would be astonished if she could overturn a 20+ point deficit.) The realistic "low turnout" scenarios were based on her gaining a bit beforehand. Only 22% of Fillon supporters in the Ifop poll are going to vote Le Pen. She blew it in the debate, so its all theoretical now. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 20:40:57 GMT
The FT published an extremely silly article which claimed that "turnout will be key" and that a lower turnout could see Le Pen overturning the polls. Later the article acknowledges that the supposed Le Pen victory scenario involves a turnout of... 50%. (Though this will obviously not happen, even in that event I would be astonished if she could overturn a 20+ point deficit.) The realistic "low turnout" scenarios were based on her gaining a bit beforehand. Only 22% of Fillon supporters in the Ifop poll are going to vote Le Pen. She blew it in the debate, so its all theoretical now. Indeed, though this article was published just today. (Some outlets really need to take a look at their Paris correspondents.) |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 5, 2017 22:33:22 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 6, 2017 5:37:21 GMT
Well colour me surprised. The Russians are interfering via the usual suspects.
Now where have I seen this before? #ponders
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 6, 2017 7:55:39 GMT
If there is a "Macrongate" (sounds like a crap suburban shopping centre, presumably near Fillon Arndale), then they should just publish the info properly rather than ponce around with innuendo.
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Post by Merseymike on May 6, 2017 9:22:45 GMT
If there is a "Macrongate" (sounds like a crap suburban shopping centre, presumably near Fillon Arndale), then they should just publish the info properly rather than ponce around with innuendo. I think they are limited by French electoral law as to how much they can say in the 24 hours before the election - which no doubt the hackers were aware of. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
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Post by Richard Allen on May 6, 2017 10:53:42 GMT
If anything this is so blatantly outside interference to try and help Le Pen that it will probably have the opposite effect.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 6, 2017 14:12:07 GMT
If anything this is so blatantly outside interference to try and help Le Pen that it will probably have the opposite effect. Le Pen is going to find out the same thing as the FPOe in Austria and others- that if you lie down with dogs, don't be surprised when people think you have fleas. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2017 13:42:13 GMT
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