French Presidential Election 2017

[Antiochian]

Apr 27, 2017 12:02:36 GMT Khunanup said:

Apr 27, 2017 8:29:09 GMT Antiochian said:

Which is now being eschewed by the Liberal Democrats who regard Free Trade with the EU as be all and end all and Free Trade with the rest as a "maybe"... 

Bulk trade in commodities (and I am a commodities strategist) far preceded trade in individual goods "of a large variety". It's the value added goods that have been last shoe to fall and they are the ones that have the most local labour component involved in their elaboration and the workers involved in their creation within the domestic economy are in the firing line of the "last leg" of globalisation. 

Utter nonsense. Free trade with our nearest geographical neighbours is so blatantly obvious to anyone who thinks it's critical to a highly functioning economy that that has to be the starting point (therefore that's the free trade relationship that should come first, especially as the cost of longer distance transport is likely to rise in the next 50 years unless there's a concerted push to develop alternative non-fossil fuel propulsion systems which are cheap and efficient). It's also Liberals in the EU who have pushed free trade agreements with other countries and blocs (CETA, TTIP etc). The thing about Free Trade is that you want to come from as strong a negotiating position as possible which we can do as part of the EU with a very diverse, commodity rich economy linked with very wealthy (on a global scale) consumers. On our own with a resource poor, service dominated economy, albeit one with very wealthy consumers in global terms, we are only in a dominant position with smaller economies who are not exponentially growing or resource poor. This is why I am convinced that the future is trading blocs with various levels of political integration with only the very biggest economies and the very resource rich countries (like your homeland) being able to get decent free trade deals without being completely screwed over by the big economies or blocs.

If any trade barriers go up between the UK and Europe we are completely fucked because we will never find a replacement for their goods and services that doesn't permanently impoverish this country due to us approaching the most important free trade deals from a position of weakness. We also run the endless risk of our services upping sticks and moving away because it's the easier sector of jobs to move which will likely mean we will be in hock to them as well which will mean favouritism towards multinational banks and other service companies which will screw over all other business and the people of the country.

This is why May and her approach is utterly insane. She must do anything to have no trade barriers with our biggest single trading partner which is our nearest neighbour not because of any pro-European ideal but because it's critical for the economic wellbeing of our country and does give us a basis whereby we don't have to replace the good thing we have going with the EU tradewise as we scrabble around trying to adequately replace the trade deals we are part of as part of the EU.

What started as a conversation about why Whirlpool workers in France didn't like losing their jobs to globalisation becomes a Jeremiad with a whole lot of Apocalypse Now rehash from the Remain campaign with lines like "because we will never find a replacement for their goods and services that doesn't permanently impoverish this country". Hasn't the Remain side learnt anything from last June? These sweeping statements don't make sense. Are you saying the UK will wither on the vine without Bonne Maman jams? What are we buying from Bulgaria that is so "life and death"? Slovakia? Cyprus? Twenty of the 27 could sink like Atlantis beneath the waves and UK economy would not notice any difference at all... Except that the FoMmers would have nowhere to send their remittances. 

[Andrew_S]

"Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling:
The drastic effect of differentiated abstention"

arxiv.org/pdf/1703.04643.pdf

[Khunanup]

Apr 27, 2017 21:28:08 GMT Antiochian said:

Apr 27, 2017 12:02:36 GMT Khunanup said:

Utter nonsense. Free trade with our nearest geographical neighbours is so blatantly obvious to anyone who thinks it's critical to a highly functioning economy that that has to be the starting point (therefore that's the free trade relationship that should come first, especially as the cost of longer distance transport is likely to rise in the next 50 years unless there's a concerted push to develop alternative non-fossil fuel propulsion systems which are cheap and efficient). It's also Liberals in the EU who have pushed free trade agreements with other countries and blocs (CETA, TTIP etc). The thing about Free Trade is that you want to come from as strong a negotiating position as possible which we can do as part of the EU with a very diverse, commodity rich economy linked with very wealthy (on a global scale) consumers. On our own with a resource poor, service dominated economy, albeit one with very wealthy consumers in global terms, we are only in a dominant position with smaller economies who are not exponentially growing or resource poor. This is why I am convinced that the future is trading blocs with various levels of political integration with only the very biggest economies and the very resource rich countries (like your homeland) being able to get decent free trade deals without being completely screwed over by the big economies or blocs.

If any trade barriers go up between the UK and Europe we are completely fucked because we will never find a replacement for their goods and services that doesn't permanently impoverish this country due to us approaching the most important free trade deals from a position of weakness. We also run the endless risk of our services upping sticks and moving away because it's the easier sector of jobs to move which will likely mean we will be in hock to them as well which will mean favouritism towards multinational banks and other service companies which will screw over all other business and the people of the country.

This is why May and her approach is utterly insane. She must do anything to have no trade barriers with our biggest single trading partner which is our nearest neighbour not because of any pro-European ideal but because it's critical for the economic wellbeing of our country and does give us a basis whereby we don't have to replace the good thing we have going with the EU tradewise as we scrabble around trying to adequately replace the trade deals we are part of as part of the EU.

What started as a conversation about why Whirlpool workers in France didn't like losing their jobs to globalisation becomes a Jeremiad with a whole lot of Apocalypse Now rehash from the Remain campaign with lines like "because we will never find a replacement for their goods and services that doesn't permanently impoverish this country". Hasn't the Remain side learnt anything from last June? These sweeping statements don't make sense. Are you saying the UK will wither on the vine without Bonne Maman jams? What are we buying from Bulgaria that is so "life and death"? Slovakia? Cyprus? Twenty of the 27 could sink like Atlantis beneath the waves and UK economy would not notice any difference at all... Except that the FoMmers would have nowhere to send their remittances. 

Stop being such a (Kevin) Ruddite. I get the impression he's your political hero.

[Foggy]

Apr 27, 2017 22:07:35 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Marine Le Pen can breach her glass ceiling:
The drastic effect of differentiated abstention"

arxiv.org/pdf/1703.04643.pdf

Before I clicked the link, I presumed they meant 'differential'... but no. There are a lot of things to bring back horrendous memories from Unit P2 of A-level maths from 15 years ago in that article... all just to show how Le Pen could possibly get to 50.07% of the valid vote in 10 days' time! 

[Antiochian]

Apr 27, 2017 23:32:28 GMT Khunanup said:

Apr 27, 2017 21:28:08 GMT Antiochian said:

What started as a conversation about why Whirlpool workers in France didn't like losing their jobs to globalisation becomes a Jeremiad with a whole lot of Apocalypse Now rehash from the Remain campaign with lines like "because we will never find a replacement for their goods and services that doesn't permanently impoverish this country". Hasn't the Remain side learnt anything from last June? These sweeping statements don't make sense. Are you saying the UK will wither on the vine without Bonne Maman jams? What are we buying from Bulgaria that is so "life and death"? Slovakia? Cyprus? Twenty of the 27 could sink like Atlantis beneath the waves and UK economy would not notice any difference at all... Except that the FoMmers would have nowhere to send their remittances. 

Stop being such a (Kevin) Ruddite. I get the impression he's your political hero.

He is a loathsome sycophantic Sinophile.... can't stand the man

[Khunanup]

Apr 28, 2017 7:54:10 GMT Antiochian said:

Apr 27, 2017 23:32:28 GMT Khunanup said:

Stop being such a (Kevin) Ruddite. I get the impression he's your political hero.

He is a loathsome sycophantic Sinophile.... can't stand the man

You do seem to share similar political views though...

[Antiochian]

Apr 28, 2017 8:16:51 GMT Khunanup said:

Apr 28, 2017 7:54:10 GMT Antiochian said:

He is a loathsome sycophantic Sinophile.... can't stand the man

You do seem to share similar political views though...

None.... he decided to remake Australia in China's image... without asking anyone's opinion on the matter

[Deleted]

OpinionWay

Macron 60% (+1)
Le Pen 40% (-1)

Mélenchon voters:
Abstain 45%
Macron 40%
Le Pen 15%

Hamon voters:
Macron 68%
Abstain 29%
Le Pen 3%

Fillon voters:
Macron 43%
Le Pen 29% 
Abstain 28%

Dupont-Aignan voters:
Le Pen 37%
Abstain 32%
Macron 31%

Non-voters:
Abstain 63%
Macron 28% (fairly high, and might be unrealistic) 
Le Pen 9%

[Deleted]

"As the far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen enters the final days of her French presidential campaign, one factor has contributed to an upbeat mood inside her party. The concerted wave of mass street protests and condemnation that greeted her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, when he made it to the final round of the presidential election 15 years ago, has not been of the same order this time.

The anti-Le Pen demonstrations have taken longer to materialise and they have been smaller and more fragmented. Politicians have not instantly and easily united against Marine Le Pen; instead, there has been hesitation and infighting.

Even on May Day, when “No to Le Pen” marches took place in major French cities, trade unions that had firmly united against Marine Le Pen’s father in 2002 were divided. Some felt the independent centrist frontrunner, Emmanuel Macron, was too economically liberal to support, placing him in the same pariah bracket as the anti-immigration Marine Le Pen. Commentators on the left complained of a mood of lethargy and resignation, saying Marine Le Pen’s party no longer provoked massive anti-racism demonstrations and was simply being accepted as a permanent feature of the French political landscape."

www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/01/marine-le-pen-front-national-upbeat-leftwing-lethargy-french-elections

[Devil Wincarnate]

Overheard today:
"Macron will want to do what Berlusconi wouldn't- shag Merkel".

Made me laugh anyway.

[The Bishop]

Looks like Macron "won" last night's debate. Is that MLP's last realistic chance gone?

[Deleted]

A poll gave it to Macron 64-36, which looks like a party line vote with a slight tilt to him.

Macron was confident and well briefed, much better than his previous performances.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

MLP was really aggressive and kept interrupting; EM kept his cool. Both almost certainly deliberate strategies.

[mboy]

I'm guessing Le Pen deliberately tried to copy Trump's debate behaviour.

(If the behaviour roles had been reversed last night, we would have seen a deluge of accusations that Macron was behaving in a misogynist manner towards Le Pen.)

[carlton43]

So, Macron will win. It will be the one high point of his tenure which will be relentlessly downhill thereafter.

He has no real party, no MPs as support and lacklustre support from any sector. He is plainly in trouble from the off. He is elected because he is not Marine and because he is a bit 'less bad' than the others. What a condemnation of process. What a recipe for disaster.

Marine will have a good solid support and firm base for improvement and probably a good raft of MPs? There is a reorientation in French politics. She is now mainstream and not an outlier. She cannot be seen as of the 'hard right' or 'far right'. That is quite absurd. She is a creature of the Nationalist Centre Left. She cannot be regarded as Right with that set of policies and being secularist even anti-clerical. Nothing about her is very right-wing at all.

[mboy]

...apart from wanting to control immigration levels. These days that alone makes you a hard-right proto-fascist. Even on this forum you get called that for suggesting immigration levels need to come down.

It wasn't always like this though. Only a few years ago it was quite different.

[Deleted]

Opinionway has done a poll on the legislative elections:
www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives-2017/0212035461141-sondage-en-marche-donne-gagnant-des-legislatives-2084198.php

It finds that En Marche! looks likely to almost entirely cannibalise the left vote, winning 249-286 seats. The right gets 200-210, FN 15-25, PS and allies 28-43 and far left 6-8.

[Jack]

Obama has endorsed Macron.

So that will give Le Pen a little boost.

[Tony Otim]

May 4, 2017 13:29:04 GMT Jack said:

Obama has endorsed Macron.

So that will give Le Pen a little boost.

As US presidents go, Obama had a fairly positive image in France. Those likely to be put off by his endorsement are highly likely to already be Le Pen voters.

[Jack]

May 4, 2017 13:37:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

May 4, 2017 13:29:04 GMT Jack said:

Obama has endorsed Macron.

So that will give Le Pen a little boost.

As US presidents go, Obama had a fairly positive image in France. Those likely to be put off by his endorsement are highly likely to already be Le Pen voters.

He was popular over here too, but his input in the referendum didn't help Cameron much.