Liverpool Walton

[Dan]

Steve Rotheram MP has been selected as Labour candidate for Mayor of the Liverpool City Region in the May 2017 elections.

[AdminSTB]

I wonder if Lesley Mahmood might stand.

[krollo]

The questions are plenty. Will the Conservatives be ramped to retain their deposit? Will it be a failure for Corbyn if Labour doesn't get 85% of the vote? Will Steve Radford get into double figures?

[Dan]

Result last time around:

Steve Rotheram (Lab) - 81.3%
Steven Flatman (Ukip) - 9.0%
Norsheen Bhatti (Con) - 4.7%
Jonathan Clatworthy (Green) - 2.5%
Pat Moloney (Lib Dem) - 2.3%
Alexander Karran (Ind) - 0.1%
Jonathan Bishop (Pluralist) - 0.1%

[The Bishop]

IIRC the Liberals won Clubmoor once?

[AdminSTB]

Aug 10, 2016 10:40:40 GMT Dan said:

Jonathan Bishop (Pluralist) - 0.1%

What a great name for a party destined to get 0.1% of the vote.

[thirdchill]

Aug 10, 2016 10:26:36 GMT krollo said:

The questions are plenty. Will the Conservatives be ramped to retain their deposit? Will it be a failure for Corbyn if Labour doesn't get 85% of the vote? Will Steve Radford get into double figures?

Labour - Can't see how it increases it's percentage by very much, at most by a few points. 85% would be a very good result for labour. If there are lots of candidates, retaining the percentage it got in 2015 would be a very good result, and Corbyn would not lose any sleep over a small drop in percentage.

UKIP - Should retain second place, though their strength is very limited around here. An increase in the vote by a few percent on a low turnout is their best bet, but could go either way. They should still retain their deposit though, unless the result is really awful.

Conservatives - If they retain their deposit, that would be a good result. Can't see it happening, they have dropped below 4.5% in the Liverpool Walton by-election in 1991 so it seems likely this will happen again.

Lib Dems - One possibility that hasn't been talked about is a Lib Dem recovery. I don't see it here, the recovery in the more middle class areas of liverpool in local elections this year has not happened here. It is not outside the realms of possibility for them to save their deposit if they choose to put some work in but third place seems to be the best they can hope for, with a small possibility of avoiding a lost deposit. A really good result would be to move back into second place, but this seems unlikely.

Greens - Again, saving a deposit would be a good result for them. They don't have the strength here that they do in liverpool riverside.

Liberals - May stand a candidate but will get a derisory vote.

In other words, the most boring by-election ever.

[finsobruce]

Aug 10, 2016 10:17:39 GMT AdminSTB said:

I wonder if Lesley Mahmood might stand.

Nost sure who she would stand for as she left the RSL/Militant/Socialist Party some time ago and joined something called the Socialist Solidarity Network, which - well,

you can read the rest yourselves.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Solidarity_Network

[neilm]

Splitters!!

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aug 10, 2016 15:39:28 GMT @trident said:

However, I'd expect a comically low turnout, and it will certainly be more boring than the last time that Walton constituency had a by-election, 25 years ago!

[froome]

Is this Labour's safest parliamentary constituency?

[AdminSTB]

What about the one in 1888?

[Merseymike]

Progress have called for an AWS. That will not go down well here if they try and impose it.

[marksenior]

Vote shares for 2016 local elections in the 6 wards making up the constituency

Lab 74.2%
LDem 8.6% ( no candidate Everton )
Green 7.2%
Liberal 3.7% ( no candidate County and Fazakerley )
Con 3.4%
UKIP 1.6% ( 1 candidate only )
EDP 0.8% ( 1 candidate only )
TUSC 0.5% ( 2 candidates only )

[krollo]

Aug 10, 2016 17:42:47 GMT marksenior said:

Vote shares for 2016 local elections in the 6 wards making up the constituency

Lab 74.2%
LDem 8.6% ( no candidate Everton )
Green 7.2%
Liberal 3.7% ( no candidate County and Fazakerley )
Con 3.4%
UKIP 1.6% ( 1 candidate only )
EDP 0.8% ( 1 candidate only )
TUSC 0.5% ( 2 candidates only )

I'd really rather like to see our alleged LD fightback to translate into a halfway decent byelection showing for the first time in a while... even in a seat like this it's something of a start. I hadn't realised the local results had been so different, so perhaps there is a smidgen of hope for a held deposit (and maybe a podium position?)

[Harry Hayfield]

Aug 10, 2016 15:45:35 GMT froome said:

Is this Labour's safest parliamentary constituency?

Highest majority at Election 2015: Knowsley (Labour majority of 34,655 votes)
Highest percentage majority at Election 2015: Liverpool, Walton (Labour majority of 72.33%)
Highest vote in a Labour won constituency: East Ham (40,563 votes)
Highest percentage vote in a Labour won constituency: Liverpool, Walton (81.30%)

[carlton43]

The safest seat in Britain by far for any party and the only seat in Britain with a margin over runner-up more than 70%.

[finsobruce]

Aug 10, 2016 15:45:37 GMT AdminSTB said:

What about the one in 1888?

It was caused by the resignation of John George Gibson to become an Irish High Court Judge. The Liverpool branch of the National Labour Electoral Association wanted to fight it and even found a candidate (William John Parry of the North Wales Quarrymen's Association) but the national organisation instructed them not to , apparently because a Tory victory was thought inevitable. Parry was also mooted as a candidate for the Liberals but in the end the Tory Miles Walker Mattison was elected unopposed.

[uhurasmazda]

Aug 10, 2016 11:32:05 GMT finsobruce said:

Aug 10, 2016 10:17:39 GMT AdminSTB said:

I wonder if Lesley Mahmood might stand.

Nost sure who she would stand for as she left the RSL/Militant/Socialist Party some time ago and joined something called the Socialist Solidarity Network, which - well,

you can read the rest yourselves.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Solidarity_Network

Last I heard, she'd gravitated to Left Unity, but that was a couple of years ago now.

[Deleted]