Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 7, 2016 7:14:15 GMT
Reason for by-election: The election of the sitting member (Sadiq Khan) as Mayor of London
Electoral History 1974 - 2015
February 1974: Lab 18,795 (48%), Con 12,687 (33%), Lib 7,108 (18%), Comm 337 (1%)
October 1974: Lab 18,530 (54%), Con 10,675 (31%), Lib 4,644 (14%), Comm 268 (1%)
1979: Lab 18,642 (52%), Con 13,442 (37%), Lib 2,917 (8%), National Front 682 (2%), Comm 233 (1%)
1983: Lab 19,640 (43%), Con 16,981 (37%), Alliance 8,317 (18%), National Front 355 (1%), Ecology 255 (1%), Others 218 (1%)
1987: Lab 21,457 (44%), Con 20,016 (41%), Alliance 6,423 (13%), Green 621 (1%)
1992: Lab 24,601 (48%), Con 20,494 (40%), Lib Dem 3,776 (7%), Lib 1,340 (3%), Green 694 (1%), Others 183 (0%)
1997: Lab 27,516 (60%), Con 12,505 (27%), Lib Dem 4,320 (9%), Referendum 829 (2%), Green 527 (1%), Independents 255 (1%), Others 153 (0%)
2001: Lab 20,332 (54%), Con 9,932 (26%), Lib Dem 5,583 (15%), Green 1,744 (5%)
2005: Lab 17,914 (43%), Con 12,533 (30%), Lib Dem 8,110 (20%), Green 1,695 (4%), Respect 700 (2%), UKIP 424 (1%), Ind 192 (1%)
2010: Lab 22,038 (44%), Con 19,514 (39%), Lib Dem 7,509 (15%), UKIP 624 (1%), Green 609 (1%), Ind 190 (0%), Christian 171 (0%)
2015: Lab 25,263 (47%), Con 22,421 (42%), Green 2,201 (4%), Lib Dem 2,107 (4%), UKIP 1,537 (3%)
If the timing is like when Boris Johnson stood down as the MP for Henley in 2008, I would expect the by-election to be held on the same day as the EU Referendum (June 23rd)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2016 9:03:05 GMT
If the timing is like when Boris Johnson stood down as the MP for Henley in 2008, I would expect the by-election to be held on the same day as the EU Referendum (June 23rd) The government has not provided for a combination of polls, so that option may not be a good one. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,890
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on May 7, 2016 9:12:39 GMT
UKIP is not a feature here. LDs are weak. The Green party might syphon off some Labour vote? Other than that this is a fairly stolid seat and I would expect a post-Mayoral and mid-term (6-years in) dip with a good solid Labour majority. Choice of candidate could affect the vote but not the result.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,842
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Post by Crimson King on May 7, 2016 9:32:57 GMT
Please, please let someone change their name to Wolfie Smith and register the Tooting Popular Front as a party
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2016 9:46:54 GMT
UKIP is not a feature here. LDs are weak. The Green party might syphon off some Labour vote? Other than that this is a fairly stolid seat and I would expect a post-Mayoral and mid-term (6-years in) dip with a good solid Labour majority. Choice of candidate could affect the vote but not the result. Tory candidate from GE is still around. Expect Labour candidate will be Fleur Anderson, Wandsworth Cllr. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2016 10:00:26 GMT
I understand a quick resignation (next week) and snap poll is likely. Possibly 9 June or 16 June.
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,890
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on May 7, 2016 10:00:31 GMT
UKIP is not a feature here. LDs are weak. The Green party might syphon off some Labour vote? Other than that this is a fairly stolid seat and I would expect a post-Mayoral and mid-term (6-years in) dip with a good solid Labour majority. Choice of candidate could affect the vote but not the result. Tory candidate from GE is still around. Expect Labour candidate will be Fleur Anderson, Wandsworth Cllr. And am I wrong? Labour win? Double majority? |
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Post by finsobruce on May 7, 2016 10:03:35 GMT
Please, please let someone change their name to Wolfie Smith and register the Tooting Popular Front as a party Power to the People! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2016 10:08:49 GMT
Tory candidate from GE is still around. Expect Labour candidate will be Fleur Anderson, Wandsworth Cllr. And am I wrong? Labour win? Double majority? In the situation, I'd expect a pretty comfortable Labour win. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,890
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on May 7, 2016 10:14:05 GMT
Let's have poll on size of Labour majority.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on May 7, 2016 18:58:38 GMT
Good grief, that man is like herpes! |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on May 7, 2016 19:12:04 GMT
He must have deposits to chuck away  |
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Post by finsobruce on May 7, 2016 19:13:06 GMT
Good grief, that man is like herpes! That's slightly unkind to..... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Tooting
May 7, 2016 20:08:31 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on May 7, 2016 20:08:31 GMT
He must have deposits to chuck away I guess he is the Tories great hope! I don't think he will lose his deposit. If he were not running I would have been tempted to predict a majority of over 20%. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2016 20:34:29 GMT
Two people already declared as seeking the Labour nomination: Mayoral wannabe Christian Wolmar, and barrister Jasvir Singh.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Tooting
May 7, 2016 20:56:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by neilm on May 7, 2016 20:56:24 GMT
Please, please let someone change their name to Wolfie Smith and register the Tooting Popular Front as a party Power to the People! Back once again for the renegade master, now that Galloway is standing? |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,419
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Tooting
May 7, 2016 21:05:04 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2016 21:05:04 GMT
Wolmar has a very developed and detailed knowledge of transport policy. I wonder if there might be a preference for a BME candidate though?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 7, 2016 21:09:06 GMT
Wolmar has a very developed and detailed knowledge of transport policy. I wonder if there might be a preference for a BME candidate though? I'd have thought the main requirement would be a candidate with good local connections. The Tories are well organised in Wandsworth, and are likely to run their GE candidate again who has good contacts. Though perhaps not Suliman Gani any more. |
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 40,419
Member is Online
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Tooting
May 7, 2016 21:11:50 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2016 21:11:50 GMT
Wolmar has a very developed and detailed knowledge of transport policy. I wonder if there might be a preference for a BME candidate though? I'd have thought the main requirement would be a candidate with good local connections. The Tories are well organised in Wandsworth, and are likely to run their GE candidate again who has good contacts. Though perhaps not Suliman Gani any more. Indeed! Though a good local BME candidate may tick both boxes....its just given the disgraceful Tory campaign against Sadiq I wonder if the local party might feel disposed to select a BME candidate. It's not as if we are exactly over represented in that regard. |
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