Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 6, 2016 3:16:42 GMT
Farage was very probably not decisive. Foolish from FPÖ to blame him and ÖVP's Mitterlehner in concreto instead of "the elite" (politicians/journalists/artists) in general.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 7, 2016 17:52:56 GMT
Participation:
May:
December:
Swing:
Trend: 
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 7, 2016 17:55:32 GMT
May:  December:  Swing:  Trend:  |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Dec 7, 2016 19:08:27 GMT
So, if I understand well, literally all districts swung to VdB?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 7, 2016 23:44:41 GMT
You may never be a liberal, Pete Whitehead, but with that attitude, we'll make a leftie out of you yet.  On the contrary - I will always be a liberal but never a leftie You know Pete, you and I have been posting on this forum & its predecessor for a long time. It's nice to know you can still make me laugh.  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 8, 2016 1:49:10 GMT
So, if I understand well, literally all districts swung to VdB? Correct, Hofer lost everywhere, his best district was with -1.2% Burgenland's "city" of Rust (1.000 inhab.). |
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Post by johnloony on Dec 8, 2016 2:13:33 GMT
If I understand it correctly, the turnout went up and there was a swing from Hofer to v.d.Bellen. But which of those was more powerful? Didthe number of votes for Hofer go up or down compared with May? And are there regional patterns for that as well?
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nitory
Conservative
Posts: 941
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Post by nitory on Dec 8, 2016 2:53:58 GMT
If I understand it correctly, the turnout went up and there was a swing from Hofer to v.d.Bellen. But which of those was more powerful? Didthe number of votes for Hofer go up or down compared with May? And are there regional patterns for that as well? Some quick sums show turnout increase was the slightly more powerful factor (should be noted I know very little about Austrian politics and someone more knowledgeable may give an analysis which contradicts what the numbers show at first glance).
| May Vote | May % | December Vote | December % | Vote Change | % Change | | Van der Bellen | 2,251,517
| 50.3
| 2,472,892
| 53.8
| 221375
| 3.5% | | Hofer | 2,220,654
| 49.7
| 2,124,661
| 46.2
| -95993
| -3.5 |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 9, 2016 1:38:43 GMT
If I understand it correctly, the turnout went up and there was a swing from Hofer to v.d.Bellen. But which of those was more powerful? Didthe number of votes for Hofer go up or down compared with May? And are there regional patterns for that as well? Some quick sums show turnout increase was the slightly more powerful factor (should be noted I know very little about Austrian politics and someone more knowledgeable may give an analysis which contradicts what the numbers show at first glance).
| May Vote | May % | December Vote | December % | Vote Change | % Change | | Van der Bellen | 2,251,517
| 50.3
| 2,472,892
| 53.8
| 221375
| 3.5% | | Hofer | 2,220,654
| 49.7
| 2,124,661
| 46.2
| -95993
| -3.5 |
SORA (link posted above) polled streams from Hofer to v.d.Bellen of 47.000 (77. versus 30.), from Hofer to Abstention of 37. (70. vs. 33.) and from Abstention to v.d.Bellen of 144.000 (169. minus 25.). So it was mainly scaremongering (Öxit, Trump), what turned v.d.Bellen-voters out. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 9, 2016 14:15:46 GMT
If I understand it correctly, the turnout went up and there was a swing from Hofer to v.d.Bellen. But which of those was more powerful? Didthe number of votes for Hofer go up or down compared with May? And are there regional patterns for that as well?In May SalzburgLand - which is dominated by SalzburgCity - had stood in a surprisingly strong way in the HoferCamp and swung this time to normality. UpperAustria - which is normally a bellweather - had been therefor quite leftish, and didn't return; perhaps caused also by FPÖ's coalition with ÖVP?
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 9, 2016 14:17:54 GMT
SORA: VoteStreams: I.round - II.round (December):  II.round (May) - II.round (December):  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 9, 2016 14:23:17 GMT
Correlations at DistrictLevel: Academics:  Foreigners (without PassPort):  Age - normally FPÖ performs best (like FN/...) among the MiddleAges, but this time...:  Unemployment:  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 9, 2016 14:26:13 GMT
Hofer's losses (May-December): Länder:  Districts:  Municipalities:  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 9, 2016 14:36:07 GMT
SORA: www.sora.at/fileadmin/downloads/wahlen/2016_BP-Wiederholung_Grafiken-Wahltagsbefragung.pdfVoteStreams May-December:  Actual PartyPreference:  Optimism/pessimism/NoChange:  Groups:  (male, female; ages; men, women; BlueCollars, WhiteCollars, CivilServants, Employees, Retired; BasicSchool, VocationalTraining, MiddleSchool, SchoolLeavingExamination, University, below SchoolLeavingExamination, above) |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 15, 2016 12:47:13 GMT
Cf.: SORA:  Fessel&GfK:  |
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