2018 Review - South West England

[greatkingrat]

The main issue is not enough Cornwall voters are being transferred to Devon.

Devon + Saltash = 12 seats averaging 72093 (while the 5 Cornwall seats average 75623)

This makes it very difficult to get all the Devon seats in quota.

Realistically, whether the cross border seat is in the North or the Plymouth area, you need to take at least 20k voters from Cornwall, preferably closer to 30k.

[iain]

Mar 15, 2016 18:47:54 GMT greatkingrat said:

The main issue is not enough Cornwall voters are being transferred to Devon.

Devon + Saltash = 12 seats averaging 72093 (while the 5 Cornwall seats average 75623)

This makes it very difficult to get all the Devon seats in quota.

Realistically, whether the cross border seat is in the North or the Plymouth area, you need to take at least 20k voters from Cornwall, preferably closer to 30k.

Add Saltash and Torpoint as well as Rame Peninsular and possibly St German's. This would add around 25,000 voters.

[greenhert]

My plans for Cornwall and Devon (with the cross-Tamar constituency I really do not want to create)

1. St Ives. The Isles of Scilly, and the Cornwall wards of St Buryan, St Just in Penwith, Newlyn & Mousehole, Penzance Central/East/Promenade, Gulval & Heamoor, Ludgvan, St Ives East/West, Lelant & Carbis Bay, Gwinnear-Gwithian & St Erth, Marazion & Perranuthnoe, Hayle North/South, Breage, Germoe & Sithney, St Keverne & Meneage, Mullion & Grand-Ruan, Porthleven & Helston West, Helston North/South, and Crowan & Wendron. Electorate: 73,971.
2. Falmouth & Camborne. The Cornwall wards of Mabe, Perranarworthal & St Gluvias, Constantine, Mawman & Budock, Penryn East & Mylor/West, Falmouth Arwenack/Boslowick/Penwerris/Smithwick/Trescobaes, Lanner & Stithians, Four Lanes, Redruth Central/North/South, Ilogan, Camborne Pendarves/Roskear/Trelowarren/Treslothan/Treswithian, Pool & Tehidy, and Mount Hawke & Portreath. Electorate: 75,631.
3. Truro & St Austell. The Cornwall wards of Roseland, Feock & Playing Place, Chacewater, Kenwyn & Baldhu, Threemilestone & Gloweth, Truro Boscawen/Redannick/Tregolls/Trehaverne, St Austell Bay/Bethel/Poltair, St Agnes, St Blazey, Par & St Blazey Gate, Bugle, Mount Charles, Mevagissey, St Mewan, Ladock, St Stephen-in-Branell, St Clement & St Erne, and Probus, Tregony & Grampound. Electorate: 75,283.
4. North Cornwall. The Cornwall wards of Newlyn & Goonhavern, St Mawgan & Collarn, Newquay Central/Pentire/Treloggan/Tretherras/Treviglas, Perranporth, St Enoder, St Columb Major, St Dennis & Nanpean, Roche, St Issey & St Tudy, Wadebridge East/West, Padstow, St Teath & St Breward, Camelford, Tintagel, Poundstock, Grenville & Stratton, and Bude. Electorate: 72,963.
5. Bodmin. The Cornwall wards of Lanivet & Bisland, Bodmin St Leonard/St Mary's/St Petroc, Lostwithiel, Fowey & Tywardheath, Trelawney, Menheniot, Looe East, Looe West, Lansallos & Lanteglos, Liskeard East/North/West & Dobwalls, St Cleer, Altarnun, Launceston Central/North & North Petherwin/South, Stokeclimsland, Lynher, St Dominick, Harrowbarrow & Kelly Bray, Gunnislake & Calstock, and Callington. Electorate: 71,061.
6. Saltash & Plymouth West. The Cornwall wards of Rame Peninsula, Torpoint East/West, Saltash East/North/South/West, and St Germans & Landulph, plus the Plymouth wards of Devonport, St Budeaux, Stoke, St Peter & The Waterfront, and Drake. Electorate: 76,865.
7. Plymouth East. The Plymouth wards of Peverell, Compton, Efford & Lipson, Sutton & Mount Gould, Plymstock Dunstone/Radford, Ham, and Eggbuckland. Electorate: 74,299.
8. Plympton & Ivybridge. The Plymouth wards of Plympyton Chaddlewood/Erle/St Mary, Moor View, Southway and Budshead, the South Hams wards of Wembury & Brixton, Bickleigh & Cornwood, Newton & Yealmpton, Woodwell, Ivybridge East/West, and Charterlands.Electorate: 72,252.
9. Torquay. Unchanged from current boundaries; name changed to reflect the fact it does not cover all the Torbay unitary authority area. Electorate: 71,459.
10. Exeter. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 71,404.
11. North Devon. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 73,420.
12. Totnes. The Torbay wards of Churston-with-Gampeton, Berry-Head-with-Furzeham, and St Mary's-with-Summercombe, plus all South Hams wards not included in Plympton & Ivybridge, and the West Devon ward of Dartmoor. Electorate: 71,941.
13. Newton Abbot. As the current Newton Abbot constituency plus Chudleigh ward. Electorate: 72,855.
14. Torridge & West Devon. As the current Torridge & West Devon constituency minus Dartmoor ward. Electorate: 75,832.
15. Central Devon. As the current Central Devon constituency minus the Teignbridge ward of Chudleigh, but plus the Mid Devon wards of Cullompton North/Outer/South. Electorate: 72,758.
16. Exmouth & Sidmouth. As the current East Devon constituency minus the wards of Whimple and Sidmouth Rural. Name has been changed to reflect the fact that substantial parts of East Devon are in Tiverton & Honiton. Electorate: 72,539.
17. Tiverton & Honiton. As the current Tiverton & Honiton constituency minus all Cullompton wards but plus the East Devon wards of Whimple and Sidmouth Rural. Electorate: 72,286.

[iain]

Feb 26, 2016 2:55:45 GMT iain said:

First try at Gloucestershire:

73,384 - Kingswood (+Boyd Valley)

72,465 - Filton (+Severn)

73,659 - T&Y(-Boyd Valley, Severn, +Wotton, Kingswood, Vale, Berkeley, Dursley)

73,473 - Stroud & Quedgeley (-Vale, Berkeley, Dursley, Nailsworth, Chalford, + Quedgeley wards)

73,369 - Gloucester (-Quedgeley wards, +Longlevens)

73,338 - Cotswold (-Wotton, Kingswood, Campden Vale, Blockley, +Nailsworth, Chalford)

78,315 - Tewkesbury (-Longlevens, Coombe Hill-part, +Campden Vale, Blockley)

71,655 - Forest of Dean (+Coombe Hill-part)

77,222 - Cheltenham (unchanged)

I've split Coombe Hill the same as the zombie review, using the same ratio of electors for each part.

Having had another play around, you can do much better in Gloucestershire proper, though you run into problems further south.

Cheltenham - unchanged

Gloucester - loses Elmbridge (essentially part of Longlevens)

Forest of Dean - gains Coombe Hill (part)

Tewkesbury - loses Coombe Hill (part), Winchcombe, Isbourne, gains Elmbridge

Cotswold - loses Wotton-under-Edge, Kingswood, gains Winchcombe, Isbourne

Stroud - loses Berkeley, Vale

Thornbury & Yate - loses Boyd Valley, gains Berkeley, Vale

Kingswood - gains Boyd Valley

Filton & Bradley Stoke - 1,576 under quota



A ward would have to be split between Filton and Kingswood, or else messing around with the Bristol boundary might work in some combination, similar to the pre-2010 arrangement.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I see a good case for splitting Coombe Hill if it's necessary, but the question is what we define as 'necessary'. Is it necessary to create the best seats with the least change possible, or is it simply necessary to make sure the seats created aren't too absurd?

If it's the latter, this might be a workable solution for Gloucestershire:



Forest of Dean (72354) - gains Coombe Hill
Tewkesbury (71800) - loses Badgeworth, Brockworth, Churchdown Brookfield, Churchdown St. John's, Coombe Hill, Hucclecote, Innsworth with Down Hatherley and Shurdington from Tewkesbury district; Longlevens from Gloucester city. Gains Blockley, Bourton Vale, Bourton Village, Campden and Vale, Coln Valley, Fosseridge, Moreton East, Moreton West, Northleach, The Rissingtons, Sandywell and Stow from Cotswold district.
Cheltenham (77222) - unchanged
Cirencester (75068) - successor to Cotswolds. Loses Blockley, Bourton Vale, Bourton Village, Campden and Vale, Coln Valley, Fosseridge, Grumbolds Ash with Evening, Kemble, Moreton East, Moreton West, Northleach, The Rissingtons, Sandywell, Stow, Tetbury East and Rural, Tetbury Town and Tetbury with Upton from Cotswold district; loses Kingswood, Minchinhampton and Wotton-under-Edge from Stroud district. Gains Bisley, Chalford, Painswick and Upton St. Leonards from Stroud; Badgeworth, Brockworth, Churchdown Brookfield, Churchdown St. John's, Hucclecote, Innsworth with Down Hatherley and Shurdington from Tewkesbury district; Elmbridge and Longlevens from Gloucester city
Gloucester (74774) - loses Elmbridge
Stroud (73688) - gains Minchinhampton. Loses Bisley, Chalford, Painswick and Upton St. Leonards
Northavon and Tetbury (72360) - successor to Thornbury and Yate. Loses Boyd Valley and Severn. Gains Kingswood and Wotton-under-Edge from Stroud; Grumbolds Ash with Evening, Kemble, Tetbury East and Rural, Tetbury Town and Tetbury with Upton from Cotswold district
Filton & Bradley Stoke (72465) - gains Severn
Kingswood (73384) - gains Boyd Valley

[iain]

If the commission refused point blank to split wards then that is probably one of the less hideous solutions. However, given that they split Coombe Hill during the zombie review, I'm hopeful that they'd do so again.

[iain]

One possible solution to the problem in South Gloucestershire if the commission refuses to split a ward would be to put Frome Vale from Bristol into Filton & Bradley Stoke, with Staple Hill going into Bristol East.

[East Anglian Lefty]

But ward splitting is just gratuitously unnecessary there. If you want to do that plan, then keep Berkeley in Stroud, add the Tetbury area to Thornbury & Yate and put a Stroud ward or two into Cotswolds (Nailsworth? Bisley and Chalford?) It creates a few more orphan wards than is ideal, but it's a much easier sell than ward-splitting.

[iain]

Mar 28, 2016 22:45:21 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

But ward splitting is just gratuitously unnecessary there. If you want to do that plan, then keep Berkeley in Stroud, add the Tetbury area to Thornbury & Yate and put a Stroud ward or two into Cotswolds (Nailsworth? Bisley and Chalford?) It creates a few more orphan wards than is ideal, but it's a much easier sell than ward-splitting.

Whilst an easier sell, and quite probably what the commission will go for, it would leave Cotswold as rather hideous. Minchinhampton becomes fairly isolated without Tetbury, while Chalford and (even more so) Bisley or Nailsworth would be even worse.

Whilst swapping wards in Bristol East and Filton & Bradley Stoke may create orphan wards, it looks as though it is actually fine on the ground, and a much better fit.

[East Anglian Lefty]

But isn't this just a case of you assigning much more weight to the local authority boundaries near where you live?

[islington]

Lefty -

I think you can give yourself a big pat on the back for this plan. Everyone else thought that Coombe Hill ward was the problem, but you realised it was the solution.

[iain]

Mar 29, 2016 6:35:22 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

But isn't this just a case of you assigning much more weight to the local authority boundaries near where you live?

Possibly. I can say with reasonable confidence that the Stroud wards are not a good fit with Cotswold, whereas, while I don't know a huge amount about the community links around Bristol, looking purely at roads on a map they seem to fit together fine.

[iain]

Mar 29, 2016 12:42:33 GMT islington said:

Lefty -

I think you can give yourself a big pat on the back for this plan. Everyone else thought that Coombe Hill ward was the problem, but you realised it was the solution.

While EAL's plan does not look too bad at first glance, a plan which combines Longlevens and South Cerney, or Swindon Village with Coln Valley is simply crap (a comment on the need to split the ward, rather than EAL's plan). Coombe Hill is most definitely a problem, not a solution.

[islington]

Well, Iain, I was so impressed with Lefty's inspired solution to Coombe Hill that I didn't want to qualify my approval with reservations on matters of detail, but since you have mentioned Longlevens ward -

At a previous set of changes (2010?) some electors had to be removed from Gloucester and placed in the Tewkesbury seat. I suspect the reason Longlevens was chosen is that it is to the north of the city, i.e. it faces in the direction of Tewkesbury (so to speak). But under Lefty's plan, surplus Gloucester voters (and now we need to remove two wards rather than one) are now to be placed in a Cirencester seat so it might be better to restore Longlevens to Gloucester and remove instead two eastern wards, Barnwood and Hucclecote. This still works fine on the numbers.

Does this make you any happier?

As for Swindon Village, it's currently in a Tewkesbury seat and under Lefty's plan, it still is.

[Pete Whitehead]

There's a simpler solution which involved far less disruption to existing seats and avoids splitting Coombe Hill. (Quedgeley used to be in Stroud district up until the 1980s btw)




The Cjeltenham ward of Springbank provides a connection between the Tewkesbury etc area and the Brockworth/Churchdown area.

[iain]

Springbank has only very limited links to Swindon Village, and none to anywhere else in that Tewkesbury constituency. The commission split Coombe Hill last time, and should do so again.

You can make an argument for Quedgeley or Longlevens leaving Gloucester, though Longlevens works better from a no change POV, and is needed for a Springbank-less Tewkesbury.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 29, 2016 16:13:17 GMT iain said:

The commission split Coombe Hill last time, and should do so again..

I thought they didn't last time and that they went for some weird split of Westgate ward instead?

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 29, 2016 16:13:17 GMT iain said:

Springbank has only very limited links to Swindon Village, and none to anywhere else in that Tewkesbury constituency. The commission split Coombe Hill last time, and should do so again.
.

You could add Hesters Way as well and then put Prestbury back in Cheltenham, which then connects that area via the A40 to Churchdown etc

[greatkingrat]

Mar 29, 2016 16:16:00 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 29, 2016 16:13:17 GMT iain said:

The commission split Coombe Hill last time, and should do so again..

I thought they didn't last time and that they went for some weird split of Westgate ward instead?

They proposed splitting both wards. Part of the problem was last time even if you added the whole of Coombe Hill, Forest of Dean was still under quota.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 29, 2016 15:21:38 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

There's a simpler solution which involved far less disruption to existing seats and avoids splitting Coombe Hill. (Quedgeley used to be in Stroud district up until the 1980s btw)




The Cjeltenham ward of Springbank provides a connection between the Tewkesbury etc area and the Brockworth/Churchdown area.

It's an ingenious plan, but if you use my Kingswood and Filton & Bradley Stoke then it fits with your Thornbury & Yate but involves even less change. I presume you were instead intending to recreate the old Kingswood borough, but I doubt the Boundary Commission will be too fussed by that.