2018 Review - South West England

[iain]

Mar 29, 2016 16:53:59 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Mar 29, 2016 16:13:17 GMT iain said:

Springbank has only very limited links to Swindon Village, and none to anywhere else in that Tewkesbury constituency. The commission split Coombe Hill last time, and should do so again.
.

You could add Hesters Way as well and then put Prestbury back in Cheltenham, which then connects that area via the A40 to Churchdown etc

That would possibly make more sense, although it would be very odd to see a Cheltenham seat including Prestbury but not Hester's Way!

The best Cheltenham seat you could actually draw would be the pre-2010 seat, which was just the unparished area. However, with the current wards this would split Leckhampton, Swindon Village and Warden Hill.

[islington]

If you really want a 'least change' option in Gloucestershire, without ward-splitting, surely it's simpler still.

Forest of Dean gains Westgate and is renamed 'Gloucester West and Forest of Dean' (73442).

Gloucester loses Westgate and is renamed 'Gloucester East' (74227).

Tewkesbury, Cheltenham and Costwolds are all within range and, purely from the Gloucestershire perspective, might be left as they are (although in practice, you might want to make small border tweaks to free up more voters to reinforce seats in South Glos).

I'm not advocating this plan. I'm simply saying that if 'least change' is your primary aim, this is the easiest way of achieving it.

My own thinking on this area is based on the fact that, while Glos + S Glos = 8.87 = 9 seats, within that we have S Glos + Stroud district = 3.93 = 4 seats, and the rest of Glos = 4.94 = 5 seats. Then I divide Tewkesbury district in the way suggested by EAL, Gloucester in the way I suggested (i.e. restore Longlevens, lose Hucclecote and Barnwood), and S Glos as pretty well everyone has suggested, and we get:

Forest of Dean (or 'W Glos') - 72354
Gloucester - 72426
Tewkesbury - 71800
Cheltenham - 77222
Cirencester - 75426
Stroud - 74379 (the district less five southern wards up to and including Dursley)
Thornbury & Yate - 73659
Filton and Bradley Stoke - 72465 (is there really no better name for this?)
Kingswood - 73384

 

[Deleted]

They came up with an even less agreeable name !ast time....

[islington]

You're right. That's horrible.

However, it does inspire me to think that 'South West Gloucestershire' might be a defensible name for it, but I'll stick with the current name for now.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I can't see the problem with Filton & Bradley Stoke as a name. They are the two largest settlements in the seat, after all.

The only Devonwall maps we've had thus far have crossed around Saltash. I think this is no more likely an option than it was last time, so here's a map with the crossing in the north of the county:





Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (78406) - loses Peverell, gains Plymstock
Plymouth Moor View (75751) - gains Peverell
South West Devon (71491) - loses Plymstock, gains areas of South Hams from Totnes. The ward shapes here are particularly inconvenient, especially Dartmouth & East Dart. Not pretty, but I had very little room for manoeuvre within my overall schema
Totnes (71881) - the eastern half of the current seat and Central Devon's parts of Teignbridge. A bit of a leftovers seat, I'm afraid
Torbay (71459) - unchanged
Newton Abbot (71099) - loses Ambrook and Ipplepen, gains Chudleigh and Kenn Valley. A bit awkward, but it lets me get six whole seats out of Plymouth, South Hams, Torbay and Teignbridge
Exeter (71404) - unchanged
East Devon (72147)- loses Broadclyst and Whimple, gains Beer & Branscombe and Feniton & Buckerell
Tiverton & Honiton (72460) - loses Beer & Branscombe and Feniton & Buckerell
Central Devon (72366) - loses all of its parts of Teignbridge, gains Broadclyst, Whimple and the rest of West Devon district. Ensuring this only reached into three districts was the most difficult task here. If the Boundary Commission are more relaxed about it taking in a fourth, things may be considerably simpler
North Devon (73240) - unchanged (the whole district)
Torridge and Bude (72436) - from Devon, the district of Torridge. From Cornwall, six wards covering Bude and Launceston
South East Cornwall (71138) - gains Altarnun (surely a contender for best ward name?) and Stokeclimsland
Bodmin & Newquay (76819) - North Cornwall needs a name change. Loses six wards in the north, gains 13 wards around Newquay
Truro & St Austell (74940) - similar to the pre-2010 seat, minus the northern coast
Falmouth & Camborne (75631) - very similar indeed to the pre-2010 seat
St Ives (73971) - gains Hayle and reunites currently split wards

[greenhert]

It is worth saying that most (possibly all) of the current Teignbridge area (in addition to Totnes itself) was actually part of the pre-1983 Totnes constituency (which did not include Ivybridge either since that was then part of the West Devon constituency), so there is some continuity with your Totnes proposal.

Tavistock & Okehampton would be a more appropriate name for your version of Central Devon.

[greatkingrat]

Central Devon does contain four districts already, so I don't think that is a major problem.

[Adrian]

Mar 30, 2016 8:05:25 GMT islington said:

Filton and Bradley Stoke - 72465 (is there really no better name for this?)

I did once propose a seat called Avonmouth and Patchway. I'd move to Bristol just to live in that seat if it ever came into being...

And it's a shame that Sodbury has been usurped by Yate.

www.visionofbritain.org.uk/maps/sheet/county_divisions_1922_1928/Gloucestershire_1922_1928

[Foggy]

A better name for Filton & Bradley Stoke would clearly be 'Bristol North', with the current Bristol NW becoming Bristol West and the present Bristol W being renamed 'Bristol Central'.

[greenhert]

Mar 30, 2016 23:34:40 GMT Foggy said:

A better name for Filton & Bradley Stoke would clearly be 'Bristol North', with the current Bristol NW becoming Bristol West and the present Bristol W being renamed 'Bristol Central'.

Filton & Bradley Stoke does not contain any part of the city of Bristol and is unlikely to do so when it is redrawn. Also, Bristol West will become more Bristol West when its Easton ward is moved to Bristol East (Bristol North West and Bristol South can stay intact as they are in quota and entirely in the city of Bristol's remit)

[krollo]

Here's my £0.02 on the South West. I went for a vague mixture of minimal change and personal taste, that I'm not in the slightest bit happy with, but as I always say it's a start. There were a couple of good points - I'm not too unhappy with either cross-border seat, for instance - but there are a few points that need reworking when I get a chance: - 

- Central Devon looks ridiculous (though it always will to some extent)
- NE Somerset seems to go over about seventeen local government districts
- Putting half of Quedgeley in FoD is a bit silly, but it seemed the most sensible way to avoid a complete reworking
- I was wondering whether Swindon would make more sense as a West / East split, with most of the urban core in the former and the outskirts and outlying areas in the latter, but I stuck with the North/South split here
- While Mid Dorset and Poole North was always a bit odd, I'm not convinced a seat that's essentially 'Bournemouth North and Poole North' is much better in terms of local communities
- There's nothing particularly northern about North Dorset, nor much eastern about East Dorset, so these could probably be named better

[Foggy]

Mar 31, 2016 20:52:26 GMT krollo said:

- Central Devon looks ridiculous (though it always will to some extent)
- NE Somerset seems to go over about seventeen local government districts
- While Mid Dorset and Poole North was always a bit odd, I'm not convinced a seat that's essentially 'Bournemouth North and Poole North' is much better in terms of local communities
- There's nothing particularly northern about North Dorset, nor much eastern about East Dorset, so these could probably be named better

I have put together a fiendish 'double Devonwall' solution that also involves transferring one East Devon ward to a Dorset seat, but allows Central Devon to be eliminated entirely.
NE Somerset only needs to take a few Mendip wards from the current Wells constituency. I don't know why other attempts at Somerset have failed to realise this.
Any seat that follows the 'Mid [county name] and [large town] [compass direction]' pattern in its name is always going to be hideous. It's tougher to get rid of completely in the case of Dorset, though.
I would suggest 'Bridport and Sherborne' for your North Dorset (which reaches the coast, for goodness' sakes!) and 'Great Swanage' for your East Dorset. 

Oh, and greenhert needs to get on a bus from the city centre to Cribbs Causeway and then come back and try reasserting that Filton is not effectively part of Bristol.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Mar 30, 2016 22:18:38 GMT greenhert said:

It is worth saying that most (possibly all) of the current Teignbridge area (in addition to Totnes itself) was actually part of the pre-1983 Totnes constituency (which did not include Ivybridge either since that was then part of the West Devon constituency), so there is some continuity with your Totnes proposal.

Tavistock & Okehampton would be a more appropriate name for your version of Central Devon.

Tavistock and Okehampton would be a very odd name for a seat extending to the north-east of Exeter. Particularly since they're both in West Devon and you've previously argued that two names should be used to denote seats that cross from one district into another. In general I would suggest that using towns in the names of overwhelmingly rural seats is a bad idea, but if I had to go that way then Tavistock & Crediton would be a safer bet.

[islington]

I've been wrestling with Devon and Cornwall.

I'm lining up firmly with those arguing that the cross-border seat should be in the north (in effect, not so much crossing the Tamar as going round it) and what I'd like to do, ideally, is treat the whole of Torridge district with Cornwall (444935 = 5.95 = 6 seats), leaving the rest of Devon (801704 = 10.72 = 11 seats). The Cornish end of this equation is straightforward because with 122 (!) wards you have untold combinations that meet the criteria. And I felt that it ought to be possible to come up with a plan for Devon too, although the seats would be on the small side, that would minimise disruption to existing seats.

But I found it really hard to work. Solutions involving removing Ivybridge from SW Devon didn't really meet the 'least change' test, and in any case created more problems than they solved. But if Ivybridge isn't available, the only way of reinforcing Totnes is with Buckfastleigh, at the expense of C Devon; and the easiest way of getting Newton Abbot up to strength is to take Kenn Valley, also from C Devon.

This leaves C Devon seriously short on numbers, but where to make them up? Every sensible combination seems to come up short, and in the end I ended up raiding two wards from Torridge: a far from satisfactory outcome because (a) it spoilt the original concept of treating Torridge with Cornwall, and (b) because it meant that C Devon, already containing parts of four districts, now extended into a fifth.

But then I was playing around with Plymouth and I came up with something that might assist with the wider Devon problem. But Plymouth is a city I really don't know at all, so I'm unsure whether this plan makes practical sense. I'm apprehensive because it involves a complete reshuffling of the Plymouth seats, so it certainly isn't 'least change' for Plymouth although it is for the rest of Devon. A possible point in its favour is that it allows a reversion to more traditional names for Plymouth seats (farewell, 'Moor View').

PLYMOUTH DEVONPORT - Four wards from Moor View (Honicknowle, Eggbuckland, St Budeaux, Ham); four from S&D (Devonport, Stoke, Peverell, Compton). 74489
PLYMOUTH SUTTON - The other four wards of S&D plus the two wards of Plymstock and three wards of Plympton. 74299

The point of all this is that the two seats combined are 148788, which releases 27958 electors (the three northernmost wards of Plymouth) to be treated with the rest of Devon: this is more than any other likely combination of three Plymouth wards, and with numbers so tight, this is really helpful. Specifically, it means the SW Devon seat, whilst including the town of Tavistock, can release all the wards north of it, and these can go into C Devon and are just enough (with a little ward-shuffling elsewhere) to get it above the minimum without having to invade Torridge (although it's a slightly awkward shape, but this is because the aptly-named Dartmoor ward remains in SW Devon). But is it acceptable to remove the three northern wards from Plymouth, rather than the Plympton andor Plymstock wards as under the current arrangements and in most other plans?

Anyway, it's allowed me to create seats with the following numbers:

SOUTH WEST DEVON - 73576
CENTRAL DEVON - 71502

I'd welcome comments on whether I'm (a) barking up the right tree; (b) barking up the wrong tree; (c) barking.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I do think there's a good case for treating Torridge with Cornwall, because it's one less boundary you end up crossing. And the idea for Plymouth is fascinating. But I think if you're going to cut three wards out, Plympton has to be the first port of call, because the Plym is clearly the strongest barrier within the city. If you just take them then the rest of Devon is pretty tight (though not impossible, as I hope I showed), but I guess you could also cut Moor View out and have a strong boundary along Tavistock Road (with the added bonus that Woolwell is then less isolated from the rest of SW Devon).

If you cut Moor View out then you can have two smaller than average seats in Plymouth. The issue there is that Drake has to go in the northern seat, which creates some rather ugly lines in the city centre.

[islington]

Lefty

I don't think you can have meant Moor View because this leaves the three Plympton wards virtually isolated from the rest of Plymouth. If you're going to omit the Plymstock wards plus one ward on the north, I suggest it has to be Southway.

This would actually work reasonably well for an east-west split in Plymouth itself (with Drake in the eastern seat) and we can even use the traditional names:

PLYMOUTH DEVONPORT - 74482
PLYMOUTH SUTTON - 73338

This releases 28935 Plymouth voters (the Plymstocks and Southway) so my SW Devon goes up to 74553, which is fine, and the Plymouth seats don't look too bad.

So now we have two ways of removing three Plymouth wards with sufficient voters to allow the whole of Torridge to go with Cornwall and a 'least change' option in the rest of Devon. You pays your money and takes your choice, I suppose. My initial reaction is that the earlier proposal (i.e. take the three northern wards with a NW/SE split in the rest of Plymouth) looks nicer on the map, but this second idea (lose the Plymstocks and Southway and an E/W split for the rest) probably works better on the ground.

The basic rules of this game seem to be: (i) you need to omit three wards from Plymouth; (ii) one of them must not be Plympton Chaddlewood even though its geographical position makes it a prime candidate, because its small electorate means that it doesn't shift enough votes into the SW Devon seat; (iii) having removed your three wards, to make two viable seats in the rest of Plymouth you have to make sure that the two small wards of Chaddlewood and Drake are in the same seat.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Reread what I wrote. I'm not suggesting cutting Plymstock out, I'm suggesting cutting Plympton out. If you do that then Moor View is the obvious fourth ward to remove.

[islington]

Lefty

I apologise. You are quite right.

But you are also right to say that if you take Moor View, in addition to the three Plmypton wards, then the internal boundary between the two Plymouth seats is really awkward, so i don't think I want to pursue this option (although others may). Besides, leaving out a fourth Plymouth ward, in the form of Moor View, 'oversolves' the problem: all we need to do, to allow a sensible 'least change' option in most of Devon, is remove three full-sized wards. And so long as these three wards collectively border on SW Devon, there is no compelling reason that they need to form a single contiguous bloc within Plymouth itself.

In short, and having now slept on it, I still feel there is much merit in what I thought you were suggesting: that the two Plymstock wards, which are separated from the rest of Plymouth by the lower River Plym, should remain in SW Devon, with the necessary third ward found in the north of the city in the form of Southway. This allows the rest of Plymouth to be divided into a west (Devonport) and east (Sutton) seat; I'm sure the names will be popular, whatever people think of the boundaries. This puts Plympton in the Sutton seat, from which it is separated by the River Plym; comms aren't great, but there's the A38 trunk road and the old A38 Plymouth Road.

[greenhert]

My proposals for Somerset (combined).

1. North West Somerset. Same boundaries as current North Somerset constituency; name has been changed to reflect correct geographical compass point and the fact that the other half of the North Somerset area is covered by Weston-Super-Mare. Electorate: 75,979.
2. Weston-Super-Mare. Unchanged from current boundaries. Coincidentally, John Penrose, the MP responsible for creating the amendment that shifted forward the start of this review one year against the recommendations of the Electoral Commission, represents this very constituency. Electorate: 75,333.
3. Bath. As the current Bath constituency plus the wards of Bathavon North, Bathavon South, and Peasedown. Electorate: 73,586.
4. Somerton & Frome. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 77,797.
5. Yeovil. Unchanged from current boundaries. Electorate: 76,351.
6. Keynsham & Shepton Mallet. All Bath & North East Somerset wards not included in Bath, plus the Mendip wards of Ashwick, Chilcompton & Stratton, Chewton Mendip & Ston Easton, Rodney & Westbury, Croscombe & Pilton, and Shepton East/West. ELectorate: 71,279.
7. Wells. As the current Wells constituency minus the Mendip wards of Ashwick, Chilcompton & Stratton, Chewton Mendip & Ston Easton, Rodney & Westbury, Croscombe & Pilton, and Shepton East/West, but plus the Sedgemoor wards of East Polden, West Polden, Puriton & Woolavington, and Huntspill & Pawlett. Electorate: 71,562.
8. Bridgwater & Minehead. As the current Bridgwater & West Somerset constituency minus the wards of East Polden, West Polden, Puriton & Woolavington, and Huntspill & Pawlett, but plus the Taunton Deane ward of North Curry & Stoke St Gregory. Electorate: 72,088.
9. Taunton. As the Taunton Deane constituency minus the North Curry & Stoke St Gregory ward. Taunton is a much more easily recognisable constituency name than Taunton Deane. Electorate: 75,776.

[Foggy]

Apr 20, 2016 22:06:53 GMT greenhert said:

6. Keynsham & Shepton Mallet. All Bath & North East Somerset wards not included in Bath, plus the Mendip wards of Ashwick, Chilcompton & Stratton, Chewton Mendip & Ston Easton, Rodney & Westbury, Croscombe & Pilton, and Shepton East/West. ELectorate: 71,279.
7. Wells. As the current Wells constituency minus the Mendip wards of Ashwick, Chilcompton & Stratton, Chewton Mendip & Ston Easton, Rodney & Westbury, Croscombe & Pilton, and Shepton East/West, but plus the Sedgemoor wards of East Polden, West Polden, Puriton & Woolavington, and Huntspill & Pawlett. Electorate: 71,562.
8. Bridgwater & Minehead. As the current Bridgwater & West Somerset constituency minus the wards of East Polden, West Polden, Puriton & Woolavington, and Huntspill & Pawlett, but plus the Taunton Deane ward of North Curry & Stoke St Gregory. Electorate: 72,088.

I agree that your W-s-M and Taunton would work. There's only one way to go with Bath considering it's 'doughnutted' at present, and it's right to leave Yeovil and Somerton & Frome unchanged this time. NW Somerset is a better name than at present, but has no counterpoint in S Somerset and now NE Somerset is disappearing too.

I'm not sure about those other three, though, apart from the improvement on the Bridgwater & W Somerset name. Puriton and Wollavington to Wells? Go to those villages and try to sell that one! Some less ridiculous versions of the zombie review's 'Wells and Somerset NE' (this time including Keynsham) and 'Burnham and Glastonbury' would be preferable.