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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 18:31:45 GMT
Total entitlement 53 seats
"Avon" 10.48
- BANES 1.73
- Bristol 4.01
- N Somerset 2.02
- S Gloucs 2.71
Cornwall + Scilly 5.27
Devon 11.41
Dorset 7.43
Gloucestershire 6.16
Somerset 5.20
Wiltshire 6.62
- Swindon 1.99
The obvious groups are
Cornwall + Devon = 16.68 (17)
Dorset + Wiltshire = 14.05 (14) (including 2 seats for Swindon)
Bristol = 4.01 (4)
North Somerset = 2.02 (2)
Last time they reviewed Gloucestershire on its own, and Somerset together with the remainder of Avon. This would still just about work, but with the increase in electorate for Gloucestershire I think it would be better to do
Gloucestershire + South Gloucestershire = 8.87 (9)
Somerset + Bath & North East Somerset = 6.93 (7)
which has the added advantage of keeping the fans of traditional counties happy.
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YL
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Post by YL on Feb 24, 2016 20:38:37 GMT
In Bristol, I guess Easton moves back from West to East, and everything else remains the same.
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Post by greenhert on Feb 24, 2016 21:13:16 GMT
One main difference is that Devon only needs one ward from the county of Cornwall for electoral equality purposes since Cornwall can otherwise form five seats of its own. The wards in Cornwall on the border with Devon have electorates of approximately 3300-4000, which would reduce the average size of those five Cornwall seats to the upper end of the allowable range (78,000 per seat).
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 24, 2016 21:33:21 GMT
While it would technically work with only one ward moving, it would likely force you to split wards elsewhere in Cornwall as every seat would have to be very close to the upper quota with no leeway.
It is more likely several wards will move: Poundstock, Bude and Grenville & Stratton would make a reasonably coherent unit of 12.6K voters to move.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2016 19:38:32 GMT
 An initial attempt at the ceremonial Somerset lieutenancy area based on the new figures. Some of these will probably be too radical for the Commission in terms of both change from the current boundaries and nomenclature, but I've spent 24 of the past 29 years in this county, and these proposals more closely reflect the reality of community links I've encountered in that time. The borders on the map sometimes don't match up exactly with the proposed wards as there have been local government boundary changes in North Somerset and Sedgemoor since the Boundary Assistant was last kindly updated by Mr Larkin, but you get the general idea for those areas. The wards in West Somerset have also been amended recently, but the idea of splitting that between multiple seats seems futile. 1. NORTH SOMERSET (75,909 electors) Description with reference to current constituencies: Most of the current Somerset North CC and part of the Somerset North East CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the North Somerset UA and an even smaller part of the BANES UA. A possible alternative name remains 'Portishead and Clevedon', but that wouldn't really be fair on Nailsea or Pill. It rather awkwardly loses Yatton to Cheddar so that both stay within the quota, but gains much of the Chew Valley from North East Somerset. 2. WELLS AND KEYNSHAM (72,944) Description with reference to current constituencies: Most of the current Somerset North East CC and part of the current Wells CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the BANES UA and part of the District of Mendip. Similar to a proposal in the zombie review, but with significant improvements in that more land is ceded to the seats immediately to the west and east so that it can extend further north, all the way to the South Gloucestershire border. Wells keeps its name in a constituency title as an historic city, but is completely reoriented. In fact, this would almost certainly be considered the successor seat to Somerset North East – previously Wansdyke – than to the present Wells constituency. 3. CITY OF BATH (75,570) Description with reference to current constituencies: All of the current Bath BC and part of the current Somerset North East CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the BANES UA. Not so tightly drawn as at present as it incorporates all three rural Bathavon wards to bring it well inside the quota from far below, leaving Peasedown rather isolated in the seat nextdoor. I like the idea of adding 'City of' the the front of the seat's name, but I doubt the Commission would go for it. 4. WESTON AND BURNHAM (72,758) Description with reference to current constituencies: Most of the current Weston-super-Mare CC and part of the current Wells CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the North Somerset UA and an even smaller part of the District of Sedgemoor. These two towns were artificially separated by the creation of "Avon", but fortunately that is no longer taken into consideration for these reviews. This seat would neatly hug the coast and confirm the strong links along this part of the M5/A38/GWR corridor. 5. CHEDDAR AND GLASTONBURY (74,580) Description with reference to current constituencies: Most of the current Wells CC with small parts of the current Weston-super Mare, Somerset North and Bridgwater & Somerset West CCs. Description on basis of primary local authority: Large parts of the Districts of Mendip and Sedgemoor with a part of the North Somerset UA. I managed to create a landlocked version of this based on the 2010 figures with the alternative and rather poetic name of 'Avalon', but now it has an annoying 'tail' in the north-west corner. It brings together Shipham and Winscombe, which have close links despite a steep incline and a local government boundary between them. The local Labour group proposed a 'Central Somerset' seat last time. This runs with that idea but moves it further towards the top left of the county map. It also has a more readily identifiable name. Putting Glastonbury in a constituency title was already proposed last time, whilst I'm sure everyone's heard of cheddar cheese! 6. SOMERTON AND FROME (77,797) Description with reference to current constituencies: The whole of the current Somerton & Frome CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Parts of the Districts of Mendip and South Somerset. Back inside the quota, having been too large before. I'm sure the Commission will leave it intact if they possibly can, and I'd have no problem with that. My aunt and uncle live here, but I haven't asked for their opinion about it yet. 7. MINEHEAD AND TONEDALE (71,678) Description with reference to current constituencies: Part of the current Bridgwater & Somerset West CC and part of the current Taunton Deane CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: The whole of the District of West Somerset, with part of the Borough of Taunton Deane and two wards from the District of Sedgemoor. Since the demise of Teesdale, West Somerset has been the smallest local authority in England, apart from the strange exceptions of the City of London and the Isles of Scilly. Obviously it's not going to be split, but I prefer using its HQ and largest town as a byword for the whole district instead of the current 'Somerset West'. No doubt people have an idea where Minehead is, either from its Butlins resort or the Monty Python 'National Bocialist' sketch. 'Tonedale' is a tiny village within Taunton Deane, but it also describes the valley of the River Tone as a whole. I'd sooner use that as a synecdoche for the parts of the borough outside Taunton proper than the name of the second-largest settlement of Wellington, which could cause confusion to outsiders due to the public school and the town in Shropshire. 8. TAUNTON AND BRIDGWATER (72,164) Description with reference to current constituencies: Part of the current Taunton Deane CC and part of the current Bridgwater & Somerset West CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the Borough of Taunton Deane and part of the District of Sedgemoor. Nestled snugly in the middle of larger seats by area, this more accurately reflects the population distribution in this part of the county than the current 'rurban' seats both towns find themselves in. Yes, there's a rivalry between the two, but that means they do have strong links – and besides, Haywards Heath and Burgess Hill are considered compatible in a single constituency, so why not 'Tauntwater'? On a psephological point, it is curious that Bridgwater has long given its name to a very safe Tory seat at parliamentary level despite being one of the least Conservative parts of the county at District and County Council level. A denser seat such as this one could at last correct that. 9. YEOVIL (76,351) Description with reference to current constituencies: The whole of the current Yeovil CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the District of South Somerset. Again, this was too large during the previous review but now fits tidily within the quota and will with any luck stay unaltered. Looking further afield: Devizes and Kingswood are below quota, so these areas may look to parts of Somerset for a few additional wards to make up the numbers. In the latter case, this could render Wells and Keynsham unviable. The seats bordering Wiltshire would be a bit more flexible. Bristol South, East Devon, North Devon, Tiverton & Honiton and West Dorset all remain within the quota, which reduces the chances of knock-on effects in those review areas. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2016 20:24:03 GMT
A bloody good first post!
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Post by andrewp on Feb 25, 2016 20:40:41 GMT
A very good first post. Your Taunton and Bridgwater seat lops off parts of those towns ( Bridgwater Quantock and Comeytrowe wards) so that constituency would be a bit odd. I think West Somerset is difficult without taking in one of those towns.
Minehead and Tonedale would be a very safe Tory seat
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2016 21:03:38 GMT
Thanks. I've posted a few times as a guest under this name in the Election 2016 part of the boards, but that option isn't available here, so I had to register. Sorry about all the blank space in what was already a lengthy post!
Comeytrowe ward is in 'Tauntwater' on the spreadsheet I'm using, so apologies if that isn't reflected in the map. Any inaccuracy is my fault there. The 'Bridgwater Quantock' ward no longer exists and is now more rural and simply called 'Quantocks'. This is one of the times when Boundary Assistant is sadly out of date.
In a case of life imitating art, the Minehead North County division was won by UKIP in 2013, whilst rural West Somerset is largely non-partisan locally. Granted, at Westminster that usually translates into a strongly Conservative patch, and this area is no exception. I think it would be worth it as a trade-off for making Taunton and Bridgwater competitive.
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Post by andrewp on Feb 25, 2016 21:20:29 GMT
Thanks. I've posted a few times as a guest under this name in the Election 2016 part of the boards, but that option isn't available here, so I had to register. Sorry about all the blank space in what was already a lengthy post! Comeytrowe ward is in 'Tauntwater' on the spreadsheet I'm using, so apologies if that isn't reflected in the map. Any inaccuracy is my fault there. The 'Bridgwater Quantock' ward no longer exists and is now more rural and simply called 'Quantocks'. This is one of the times when Boundary Assistant is sadly out of date. In a case of life imitating art, the Minehead North County division was won by UKIP in 2013, whilst rural West Somerset is largely non-partisan locally. Granted, at Westminster that usually translates into a strongly Conservative patch, and this area is no exception. I think it would be worth it as a trade-off for making Taunton and Bridgwater competitive. Sorry, my mistake, you have got Comeytrowe in Taunton and Bridgwater seat on the map. You do have bits of Taunton (Bishops Hull) and one ward from Bridgwater( covering the durleigh road suburb) in your Minehead seat. West Somerset is very tricky. As you say the Sedgemoor wards on Boundary assistant are out of date. To try and avoid splitting Bridgwater and Taunton, when I've tried this exercise I have toyed with putting one or two western wards from South Somerset around chard into my 'West Somerset ' seat. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2016 21:24:17 GMT
Sorry, my mistake, you have got Comeytrowe in Taunton and Bridgwater seat on the map. You do have bits of Taunton (Bishops Hull) and one ward from Bridgwater( covering the durleigh road suburb) in your Minehead seat. West Somerset is very tricky. As you say the Sedgemoor wards on Boundary assistant are out of date. To try and avoid splitting Bridgwater and Taunton, when I've tried this exercise I have toyed with putting one or two western wards from South Somerset around chard into my 'West Somerset ' seat. No worries about the Comeytrowe mix-up. I went back to double check it before you replied! Ugh, that wouldn't be popular locally, but you're right that on the 2010 figures, that area could get very messy. Unless there is an extreme knock-on effect from faraway parts of Devon, Dorset and Wiltshire, there is no need to change the Yeovil constituency this time, so Chard should not end up in the same seat at Exmoor. Bishop's Hull can safely be swapped with Ruishton and Creech ward with both their respective seats still inside the quota. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 25, 2016 21:36:54 GMT
As for Cornwall, I believe the following five constituencies can be formed, making sure that only one or two rural wards at most have to be part of any Devon constituency. This would be easier if being just a few hundred voters over the maximum was allowable for a constituency if necessary for practical or social reasons (which is occasionally the case for some newly created wards or divisions).
1. St Ives. Expanded to also include villages near Camborne and Falmouth.
2. Camborne and Falmouth. Most of the old Camborne & Redruth seat which will be reunited with Falmouth as was the case from 1950 to 2010.
3. Truro & St Austell. Reunited as per 2010, although not entirely contiguous with the pre-2010 Truro & St Austell constituency.
4. Bodmin. Very similar to the Bodmin constituency that was abolished in 1983, since South East Cornwall contained most of the Bodmin constituency when it was created. However, in this scenario, it also loses Gunnislake & Calstock to a Devon constituency.
5. North Cornwall. The most substantially changed, since it regains Newquay but loses Bodmin. It is effectively returned to its pre-2010 boundaries.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2016 22:16:17 GMT
4. Bodmin. Very similar to the Bodmin constituency that was abolished in 1983, since South East Cornwall contained most of the Bodmin constituency when it was created. However, in this scenario, it also loses Gunnislake & Calstock to a Devon constituency. I thought the least objectionable options for a 'Devonwall' seat this time were either the Bude area again or otherwise, Saltash? |
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Feb 25, 2016 22:50:31 GMT
4. WESTON AND BURNHAM (72,758) Description with reference to current constituencies: Most of the current Weston-super-Mare CC and part of the current Wells CC. Description on basis of primary local authority: Part of the North Somerset UA and an even smaller part of the District of Sedgemoor. These two towns were artificially separated by the creation of "Avon", but fortunately that is no longer taken into consideration for these reviews. This seat would neatly hug the coast and confirm the strong links along this part of the M5/A38/GWR corridor. Your Weston/Burnham seat has no road links where it straddles the River Axe between Uphill and Brean. It would require driving through another constituency for about 5 miles to travel between the two! |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 25, 2016 22:59:54 GMT
Meanwhile in combined Gloucestershire (just my personal view):
1. Kingswood. Expanded to include Boyd Valley as well. New electorate 73,384.
2. Filton & Bradley Stoke. Now includes Severn to bring it up to quota. New electorate 72,465.
3. Thornbury & Yate: Retains its name but now has to be expanded northwards to include the Stroud wards of Kingswood, Wootton-under-Edge, Vale, Berkeley, and Dursley. New electorate 72,022.
4. Stroud & Quedgeley: contains most of Stroud and loses the aforementioned wards to Thornbury & Yate but gains Minchinhampton from the Cotswolds and also Quedgeley's wards of Gloucester. New electorate: 74,389.
5. Cirencester. A redrawn Cotswolds constituency with Isbourne ward added from Tewkesbury to compensate for its loss of Stroud wards. New electorate: approx. 71,100.
6. Gloucester: Gains Longlevens ward from Tewkesbury but loses both Quedgeley wards to Stroud & Quedgeley. New electorate 73,368.
7. Cheltenham. Loses northwestern Springbank ward to a redrawn Tewkesbury. New electorate 72,665.
8. Tewkesbury. Retains its name but having lost two wards to separate constituencies gains Springbank ward from Cheltenham. New electorate 71,377.
9. West Gloucestershire. All of the existing Forest of Dean constituency plus a split ward from Tewkesbury. New electorate approximately 71,500.
Ward splitting is needed in a few cases...
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2016 23:01:52 GMT
4. WESTON AND BURNHAM (72,758) [...] These two towns were artificially separated by the creation of "Avon", but fortunately that is no longer taken into consideration for these reviews. This seat would neatly hug the coast and confirm the strong links along this part of the M5/A38/GWR corridor. Your Weston/Burnham seat has no road links where it straddles the River Axe between Uphill and Brean. It would require driving through another constituency for about 5 miles to travel between the two! As I said, that's any easy car journey along the M5 or A38, a very quick trip on the train or a slightly more winding bus route through country lanes... all of which I have undertaken on many an occasion. I have even cycled it once! The villages one passes through for this purpose are in my opinion best served by staying in a rural constituency based around Cheddar. If the residents of those places disagree, then fair enough. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 25, 2016 23:06:46 GMT
Realistically I would bet my house on North Somerset and Weston-super-Mare remaining completely unchanged.
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 25, 2016 23:07:17 GMT
Meanwhile in combined Gloucestershire (just my personal view): 1. Kingswood. Expanded to include Boyd Valley as well. New electorate 73,384. 2. Filton & Bradley Stoke. Now includes Severn to bring it up to quota. New electorate 72,465. 3. Thornbury & Yate: Retains its name but now has to be expanded northwards to include the Stroud wards of Kingswood, Wootton-under-Edge, Vale, Berkeley, and Dursley. New electorate 72,022. 4. Stroud & Quedgeley: contains most of Stroud and loses the aforementioned wards to Thornbury & Yate but gains Minchinhampton from the Cotswolds and also Quedgeley's wards of Gloucester. New electorate: 74,389. 5. Cirencester. A redrawn Cotswolds constituency with Isbourne ward added from Tewkesbury to compensate for its loss of Stroud wards. New electorate: approx. 71,100. 6. Gloucester: Gains Longlevens ward from Tewkesbury but loses both Quedgeley wards to Stroud & Quedgeley. New electorate 73,368. 7. Cheltenham. Loses northwestern Springbank ward to a redrawn Tewkesbury. New electorate 72,665. 8. Tewkesbury. Retains its name but having lost two wards to separate constituencies gains Springbank ward from Cheltenham. New electorate 71,377. 9. West Gloucestershire. All of the existing Forest of Dean constituency plus a split ward from Tewkesbury. New electorate approximately 71,500. Ward splitting is needed in a few cases... Cheltenham losing Springbank would be, frankly, ridiculous. |
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Post by greenhert on Feb 25, 2016 23:10:25 GMT
Meanwhile in combined Gloucestershire (just my personal view): 1. Kingswood. Expanded to include Boyd Valley as well. New electorate 73,384. 2. Filton & Bradley Stoke. Now includes Severn to bring it up to quota. New electorate 72,465. 3. Thornbury & Yate: Retains its name but now has to be expanded northwards to include the Stroud wards of Kingswood, Wootton-under-Edge, Vale, Berkeley, and Dursley. New electorate 72,022. 4. Stroud & Quedgeley: contains most of Stroud and loses the aforementioned wards to Thornbury & Yate but gains Minchinhampton from the Cotswolds and also Quedgeley's wards of Gloucester. New electorate: 74,389. 5. Cirencester. A redrawn Cotswolds constituency with Isbourne ward added from Tewkesbury to compensate for its loss of Stroud wards. New electorate: approx. 71,100. 6. Gloucester: Gains Longlevens ward from Tewkesbury but loses both Quedgeley wards to Stroud & Quedgeley. New electorate 73,368. 7. Cheltenham. Loses northwestern Springbank ward to a redrawn Tewkesbury. New electorate 72,665. 8. Tewkesbury. Retains its name but having lost two wards to separate constituencies gains Springbank ward from Cheltenham. New electorate 71,377. 9. West Gloucestershire. All of the existing Forest of Dean constituency plus a split ward from Tewkesbury. New electorate approximately 71,500. Ward splitting is needed in a few cases... Cheltenham losing Springbank would be, frankly, ridiculous. I know...I was just trying to fit in 9 constituencies into Gloucestershire and South Gloucestershire as was suggested in an earlier post and without modifying any of them too much. The Boundary Commission's proposals will also be quite messy in places, just like mine. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2016 23:18:15 GMT
Realistically I would bet my house on North Somerset and Weston-super-Mare remaining completely unchanged. That probably is the most likely option, but the release of the new statistics should be a time for dreaming and optimism, not realism! No change in the North Somerset Council area will mean unnecessary changes to at least one Somerset seat that's within the quota elsewhere, though. Do we then allow Somerset North East to keep two of the three Northavon words and bring Bath inside the quota by adding parts of Wiltshire? Are we about to see the inglorious return of a cross-border mess involving Kingswood? Or mess up the Somerset County Council area because Bridgwater has gone slightly above the threshold? In terms of where people actually go in order to work, socialise and shop around here, my proposal is a lot fairer while keeping within the rules. I don't claim that it's perfect, mind. That said, if the Commission ignored community links even when it had a bit more flexibility, what chance it'll do so now when there's the 5 per cent tolerance to take into account? It speaks volumes that a Kipper in the South East thread was so frustrated by the inherent conservatism of the review panels. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 26, 2016 2:55:45 GMT
First try at Gloucestershire:
73,384 - Kingswood (+Boyd Valley)
72,465 - Filton (+Severn)
73,659 - T&Y(-Boyd Valley, Severn, +Wotton, Kingswood, Vale, Berkeley, Dursley)
73,473 - Stroud & Quedgeley (-Vale, Berkeley, Dursley, Nailsworth, Chalford, + Quedgeley wards)
73,369 - Gloucester (-Quedgeley wards, +Longlevens)
73,338 - Cotswold (-Wotton, Kingswood, Campden Vale, Blockley, +Nailsworth, Chalford)
78,315 - Tewkesbury (-Longlevens, Coombe Hill-part, +Campden Vale, Blockley)
71,655 - Forest of Dean (+Coombe Hill-part)
77,222 - Cheltenham (unchanged)
I've split Coombe Hill the same as the zombie review, using the same ratio of electors for each part.
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