Peruvian General Election 2016

[Sibboleth]

Garcia is going to fluke it again, somehow. Because Peru.

[Deleted]

Mar 8, 2016 17:29:05 GMT @pjones said:

Latest GfK poll

Fujimori 34.6 (+2.0)
Guzman 16.6 (+6.2)
Kuczynski 6.9 (-2.6)
Barnechea 5.1 (+4.6)
Garcia 4.3 (-2.2)
Mendoza 3.7 (+1.8)
Acuna 3.6 (-6.4)
Toledo 1.6 (-1.1)

www.gfk.com/fileadmin/user_upload/dyna_content/PE/GfK_OP_Febrero_2016_-_Gobierno_y_Lima_6.pdf

The gentleman from the South is rising!

[Deleted]

Alfredo Barnechea García (63) is a journalist and management and communications expert. Born in Ica in the coastal south to a Basque-Peruvian cotton planter and has a very aristocratic pedigree on his mothers side dating back to the conquistadors (related to a famous Peruvian author and a couple of Bolivian presidents). So old Southern planter aristocracy.. his American counterpart would have Beauregard as middle name.

Studied at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru in Lima and later got a Master in Public Administration and Government from the John F. Kennedy School of Government, is a member of prestigous academic societies in both Peru and Spain and has written a dozen books.

Worked as Senior Advisor to the President and later Director of External Relations in the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and Senior Advisor to the SG of the Andean Community of Nations (CAN) and sits on the board of a string of Peruvian and multinational companies.

Developed a writing career starting as a columnist for the weekly Caretas and has been published in 40+ newspapers in Latin America and Spain; hosted a popular tv-show, where he interviewed celebrities from the literary world and politics.

Ran unsuccessfully for Mayor of Lima in 1983 for APRA and became their deputy leader in 1985, but quit two years later after trying to stop Alan Garcia's (disastrous) economic policies and opposed his idea of nationalizing the banks. Personal friend with both Mario Vargas Llosa and Javier Perez de Cuellar, who is stepfather to his wife. Got involved in the presidential campaign of Vargas Llosa in 1990 and befriended his ally former President and Acción Popular founder Fernando Belaúnde (1963–68 & 1980–85). So basically he went back to the (moderate) right through his elite network.

Was headhunted to Acción Popular by party president Javier Alva Orlandini in 2013 and won their primaries last year with a solid margin. His running mate for First VP is congressman Victor Andres Garcia Belaúnde, nephew of Fernando Belaúnde (and son of a Supreme Court President).

Hard to get more old monied and social elite in Peru. Still hates Alan García.  

Besides reeking of elite his biggest problem is probably that he is a bit of a has-been so his name recognition among the younger generations is low - 38% say they don't know him in the latest poll of that + PPK plays the "competent technocrat" role in a more persuasive populist style. Too much of an intellectual.



And with García back in the 80s:

[maxque]

Keiko begins using the methods (and the puppets) of his father, it seems.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2016 23:16:02 GMT maxque said:

Keiko begins using the methods (and the puppets) of his father, it seems.

Her father, but yeah.

[Deleted]

Mar 9, 2016 23:58:26 GMT @pjones said:

Mar 9, 2016 23:22:05 GMT @odo said:

Her father, but yeah.

One thing I notice looking at the polling is the high level of support that Keiko Fujimori has amongst the poorer sections of voters, especially poorer women. Do you know why this is?

Her father's legacy is viewed favorably among many of them: He implemented various programs for the poor. Keiko has promised a “second-generation of reforms” to make the state more efficient, improve policing (popular in crime ridden areas), and do a better job providing public services to the poor (healthcare, education, housing etc.).

She is also campaigning on equality (in vague, general terms). A couple of her standard phrases are:
- “We'll govern for all Peruvians, above all the poorest ones”
- “We have to keep growing, but we must grow with more equality”

She is generally more of a right wing populist than a Conservative.

[Deleted]

On the left wing agenda - pretty moderate, but Veronika Mendoza keeps being questioned on Venezuela.
perureports.com/2016/03/07/would-veronika-mendoza-move-peru-closer-to-venezuela/

[Deleted]

A survey by Ipsos on the transfers if Acuña or Guzman dropped out of the race do not have a clear winner.

Guzman's 18 percentage points recorded in the latest survey by Ipsos goes to:

Kuczynski 3%
Fujimori 2%
Acuña 2% (but now he is out..)
Mendoza 2%
Barnechea 2%
Two minor candidates 2%
Undecided 5%

Acuñas six percentage points of the vote goes to:

Guzman 2% (but now he is out..)
Fujimori 1%
Garcia 1%
Kuczynski 1%
Others 1%

If both effects are added, the main beneficiary of the output of both candidates would PPK. However, the same survey indicates that the main reason to vote for both Guzman to Acuña is because they are new. and outsiders. So their constituents could more easily migrate to candidates who offer novelty and outsider status rather than experience (as PKK). The Ipsos study also shows that besides Guzman and Acuña the other candidates perceived as new and outsiders are Veronika Mendoza and Alfredo Barnechea. So they should both benefit.

As Ipsos puts it:
"While Mendoza was elected to Congress by the Nationalist Party in 2011 and Barnechea was APRA deputy between 1985 and 1990, most of the electorate does not know them, so they are perceived as fresh faces. Therefore, one would expect that any of them will capitalize on this national renewal, especially if Guzman and Acuña voters attribute their removal as a maneuver of the political establishment to exclude their candidates."

So given that Peruvian voters love to let outsiders surge late in the campaign a Barnechea or Mendoza surge could be in the cards.

Pretty ironic that Barnechea has been out of the game for so long that he is perceived as a fresh face and an outsider.

[waynedaley1]

How does a Peruvian living in the UK vote in the election ?

[Deleted]

The ruling PNP withdraws their candidate list for both the presidential and congressional elections. Peru has a bizarre law that means, that a party loses its official status if it polls below 5% in a national election and they were polling below 2%. Presidential candidate Daniel Urresti blames "internal enemies" for this "betrayal" and says he feels he has been playing "the role of the deceived spouse". The decision was taken by the PNP Executive Committee led by first lady Nadine Heredia. Her relation to former Lima Mayor Susana Villaran, who was first vice president candidate on the ticket, is strained, but not sure if that has anything to do with the decision.
www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/peru-ruling-party-withdraws-from-elections-116031200101_1.html

Should help Mendoza and Frente Amplio a wee bit.

[Deleted]

Run-off poll from Ipsos:



All three contenders have a shot (Garcia obviously irrelevant by now). Leftist Mendoza the furthest from Keiko, as one would expect.

[Deleted]

Post-Guzman Ipsos Perú poll - best one for Mendoza so far:

Fujimori 32%
PKK 14%
Mendoza 9%
Barnechea 9%
Garcia 6%
Toledo 2%

The interesting thing will be whether Barnechea or Mendoza (or possibly even both) can pass PPK as the difference in name recognition narrows. The two ex-Presidents have too high unfavorables to really be much of a factor. People know them and it seems clear they do not want either of them back.

If Peruvian voters live up to their proud traditions for letting seemingly hopelessly distanced candidates surge in the final month at least one of them should pass him at some point.

[Deleted]

An outsider that is starting  to look like a possible run-off contender is Franco-Peruvian Verónika Mendoza Frisch (35) from Frente Amplio. The only woman in the race, who isn't the daughter of a dictator . She is a congresswoman elected from the Cusco region.

Got her bachelor's degree in psychology in Paris and topped it up with a Masters in Social Sciences from Sorbonne Nouvelle and a Spanish Masters of Education then taught at the Universidad Nacional del Altiplano-Puno after she returned home. Joined the PNP as an activist and became coordinator of the Committees of International Support, press secretary of youth and spokeswoman for the Commission of Women.

Elected to Congress in 2011 where she became Vice President of the Committee on Culture and Cultural Heritage, and a full member in the Commission of Andean, Amazonian and Afro-Peruvian Peoples, Environment and Ecology (a telling combo..) and later chairwoman of the Committee on Decentralisation.

Left both PNP and its Gana Peru coalition in mid-2012 due to the government siding with a Swiss mining company over the locals and declaring a state of emergency in Espinar in her home region. As other PNP leftists she then joined the Frente Amplio and won their primaries (civic elections) in October. Her big problem is name recognition (39% didn't know who she was in the poll), lack of funds and that leftists are out of favor after the PNP fiasco.

Has upper middle class SJW written all over her resume (not a bad thing, Peru needs SJWs). Dual French and Peruvian citizenship. Its interesting how many candidates has an immigrant background, both Japanese- and Euro-Peruvians are very overrepresented in "the political class".

[Deleted]

And the main challenger to Keiko by now:

Pedro Pablo Kuczynski Godard (77) is another Euro-Peruvian as the son of a French-Swiss teacher and a Polish born German-Jewish tropical medicine expert, who was invited to set up public health services in the Amazon and jumped at the chance to get out of Nazi-Germany. PPKs Anglophile dad sent him to Markham College in Lima and on to a public school in England and a PPE from Oxford followed by a master's in public affairs at Princeton. He then went to work in the World Bank, but had a two year stint as deputy manager of the Peruvian central bank in the late 60s before the dictator accused him of corruption. His career continued in IMF and then as investment banker in New York. He then became chief economist for the private finance arm of the World Bank and simulataniously president of an international US based mining consortium.

Fernando Belaúnde called him home as Minister of Energy and Mines in 1980, where he kickstarted oil and gas exploration with major tax breaks to multinationals, which led to a job as Co-Chairman of First Boston in New York, an international investment bank with significant oil interests. He left them in 1992 to co-found a private equity firm called the Latin American Enterprise Fund (LAEF) in Miami and developed excellent ties to GOP and the Florida branch of the Bush (Crime) Family. Kuczynski is still a director of various companies in Peru and co-owns Florida based Westfield Capital.

Returned to Peru in 2000 as an advisor to Alejandro Toledo's presidential campaign and became Minister of Economy and Finance twice under his administration and ended up heading Toledo's government in his last year. Afterwards he eyed a chance of the presiency and founded the Agua Limpia NGO to provide drinking water systems to poor communities - and improve his public image.

Married twice to American women - the first one a daughter of a former CIA Director. First cousin to Jean-Luc Godard btw.

He is running on poverty allevation through large scale investment in agricultural and technical schools, universal healthcare coverage and a coastal rail system. A better educated and healthier workforce and better infrastructure will make Peru an attractive place to do invest and do business.

Unlike many others from the white elite he can do the populist thing convincingly, but he is old, has a CV that reeks of corporate shill and “greedy capitalist pig” (World Bank, IMF, US investment bankers and mining consortia). It is almost a caricature of everything the Latin American left hates and these sentiments include many centrists. He is reportedly (and understandably) seen as the candidate of big business. But interesting that 33% would consider voting for him on top of the 7%, who has decided to do it.

He failed in 2011 when his Alianza por el Gran Cambio was far more broad based than the current PKK party (fx the PPC was with him back then).

But given that the two ex-presidents have no credibility, Mr. Private Universities has been exposed as a fraud and the voters are in no mood for leftist experiments Vega may be right he will surge once more because if Guzman falls out of favor or is forced to drop out because then there will be nobody else to challenge Keiko, except our forgotten Peruvian beauregard, who seems to lack “the common touch”.

PKKs dual American-Peruanian nationality was used against him in 2011, so he renounced his US citizenship last year and made a big deal out of it.

[Deleted]

Ideology isn't whats its about in Peru, but it still matters to some. Looking at presidential candidates by party the picture is now:


Right:

Fuerza Popular: Keiko Fujimori

Peruanos Por el Kambio (PPK): Pedro Pablo Kuczynski

Perú Posible: Alejandro Toledo


Centre-right:

Alianza para el Progreso del Perú: César Acuña

Todos por el Perú: Julio Guzmán

Acción Popular (AP): Alfredo Barnechea


Centre-left

Alianza Popular (APRA-PPC): Alan García


Left:

Partido Nacionalista Peruano (PNP): Daniel Urresti

Frente Amplio por la Justicia, Vida y Libertad: Verónika Mendoza


So its more crowded on the right (whether populist or neo-liberal) than on the left.

[Deleted]

Some more numbers from the mid-March Ipsos poll:


Keiko has more convinced voters, but PKK has lower unfavorables and a high share of potential voters.

Mendoza and Barnechea both still have a big name recognition problem with a quarter of the voters not knowing them this late in the campaign.


Congress:


Still a lot of undecideds and 12% will vote blank/spoil ballot. The Fujimorists are only doing half as well as Keiko herself, so she will have to deal with a split parliament.

[Deleted]

This one is slightly funny

[Deleted]

Tie between the old guys:

[Deleted]

Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) have announced that they are going to work on all days in the Easter week to resolve the petitions about excluding Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (sic!) presented by the Jurado Especial Electoral Lima Centro 1. So it seems Keiko lost at the JEE today and PKK has been indicted as well!
www.radionacional.com.pe/informa/elecciones2016/jne-atender-en-semana-santa-para-ver-recursos-impugnatorios

So maybe we are looking at a Barnechea vs. Mendoza run-off  

EDIT: Well, she was acquitted, so the appeal must be from her opponents and the PPK case hasn't been heard, but it will surely be appealed no matter what the result is.

[finsobruce]

Mar 23, 2016 23:53:17 GMT @odo said:

Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) have announced that they are going to work on all days in the Easter week to resolve the petitions about excluding Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (sic!) presented by the Jurado Especial Electoral Lima Centro 1. So it seems Keiko lost at the JEE today and PKK has been indicted as well!
www.radionacional.com.pe/informa/elecciones2016/jne-atender-en-semana-santa-para-ver-recursos-impugnatorios

So maybe we are looking at a Barnechea vs. Mendoza run-off  

Or at this rate,  a Presidential election without any candidates.