Peruvian General Election 2016

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Only 78.47% of the congressional vote counted. But based on a so-called fast counting by Ipsos the distribution is:

Fuerza Popular 65

Peruanos Por el Kambio 23

Frente Amplio 21

Alianza Para el Progreso 11

Acción Popular 5

Alianza Popular 5

So Fuerza Popular close to a majority - only lacks one seat.


Compared to the last Ipsos poll that is:


Fuerza Popular +5

Peruanos Por el Kambio -2

Frente Amplio -1

Alianza Para el Progreso nc

Acción Popular -1

Alianza Popular -1

[Deleted]

Mendoza in a recent interview:

- "It is very difficult to find differences between the right wingers Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski" (..) "From a programmatic point of view and on economic model there is no difference between the two candidates."

- "We will not reach a government agreement with any of these forces. We will be in opposition in either case."

- "The return of Fujimori is the biggest risk for Peru, but what is not clear is to what extent Kuczynski wants to differentiate himself from Fujimori."

- Both wants "by different mechanisms" to release ex-president Alberto Fujimori, which "in legal and symbolic terms would be disastrous for the country."

- "If someone believe the Fujimorists has democratized or moderated, they are suffering from delusions".

In addition Mendoza recalled that in the 2011 elections of PPK campaigned in the second round in favor of Keiko Fujimori "claiming there were positive elements of the fujimontesinista dictatorship."

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Apr 15, 2016 13:44:19 GMT @pjones said:

Found some very interesting maps on this blog

Would I be right in thinking this is because of the class base of the candidates? Candidates whose popularity is centered around those with middling to low incomes i.e. Fujimori, Mendoza, (Santos?) have large areas where their supporters form a plurality of voters. Candidates with a more middle class based base i.e. PPK, Barnechea, have support more geographically spread. Is that an accurate interpretation?

Broadly speaking yes.

Among the two middle class candidates. PPK is the Conservative and Barnechea the Social Liberal and its probably level of secularization (which mainly varies with age) that is the biggest factor in explaining differences in their share of the middle class vote (parts of the Catholic hierarchy actively warned against Barnechea).

Santos was essentially a regional candidate. He got high numbers in the region where he was Governor and had some support in one neighboring region and then for some reason in a department in the south (VP?), but thats it.

Class and ethnicity are intertwined in Peru with the Middle Class being mainly white, Asian and Mestizo. Fujimori was successful in the parts of the country where Indians speaking an Indian languages do not constitute the bulk of the "lower classes", and the reverse was true for Mendoza. Wherever the "lower classes" are Mestizo and Hispanicized Indians Keiko won. The Afro-Peruvian parts of the coastal areas seemingly had a more split vote with PPK doing well (but I haven't looked into that).

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The Fujimorists try to link PPK congressional candidate and Vice President Gilbert Violeta to hated First Lady Nadine Heredia and her network. He apparently met her at a hotel in Lima, but denies the meeting happened.

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CPI poll:

Keiko Fujimori 43.6%
PPK 41.5%
Blank/spoilt 9.1%
Didn't answer 5.8% 

Within MoE

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Alfredo Barnechea and Gregorio Santos have both decided not to endorse either candidate, with both saying they are essentially the same policy wise. 

Alan Garcia has gone to Spain and hasn't shown any sign of returning to Peru or endorsing anyone, though if he does it will be PPK.

It is a bit unusual that none of the other first round candidates with any amount of support have endorsed either run-off candidate, and bad news for PPK in his attempt to cast himself as the anti-Fujiimorist candidate. The leftists and liberals haven't been prepared to get behind him to stop Keiko. 

[finsobruce]

Apr 21, 2016 10:17:56 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 21, 2016 6:46:01 GMT @odo said:

Alan Garcia has gone to Spain and hasn't shown any sign of returning to Peru 

Well that's one way of reacting to an election result!

Maybe he's hoping to help form the next Spanish government. Got as much chance as he had in Peru.

[The Bishop]

Arguably more, given the state of Spanish politics at present.....

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New Datum polls confirms that this is a very close race. Another de facto tie.
elcomercio.pe/politica/elecciones/datum-ppk-411-y-keiko-fujimori-404-segunda-vuelta-noticia-1896076?flsm=1

PPK 41.1%
Fujimori 40.4%
Blank or spoiled 8.6% 
Undecided 9.9% 

Lima:
PPK 47.5% 
Keiko 36.9% 

Interior:
Keiko 42.6% 
PPK 37.2% 

Urban areas:
PPK 42.3% 
Keiko 39.1% 

Rural areas:
Keiko 45.2% 
PPK 36.2%.

Margin of error: +/- 2.8%. Confidence level: 95%. 

[Deleted]

New CPI Poll is out with:

Fujimori - 42.3
PPK - 40.1

PPK lead in Lima is rather narrow, 46% to Fujimori's 43.8, which explains why this poll has him lower than others. 

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The first round presidential result has - finally - been finalized:

Keiko 6,115,073 39.86
Veronika Mendoza 2,874,940 18.74
PPK 3,228,661 21.05

So 2.31 between PPK and Mendoza. A surprisingly large margin.

98.18% counted in the congressional elections. Everything in apart from Lima City & expats + Lima Province (at 99.71).

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The final Congress:
rpp.pe/elecciones-peru-2016/resultados-congreso

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"Peru's presidential election on Sunday was too close to call, with two exit polls giving economist Pedro Pablo Kuczynski a slight edge over Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of an imprisoned former president, and one putting Fujimori in front.

All polls showed the two candidates in a technical tie. CPI put Fujimori in front, while Ipsos and GfK gave Kuczynski a thin lead."

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Official results should be released from 9 PM onwards.

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May 31, 2016 8:16:44 GMT @pjones said:

Reports are that Fujimori did better than PPK in the TV debates. For those of you who understand Spanish here are the debates

In places, he comes across as a little stunted and old, whilst she is younger and more vibrant. Weirdly, I have heard him give speeches in English that were more exciting, but he is 36 years older than her. I hope he wins, and not only because he was partly schooled in Lancashire. I fear she will prevail.

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Peru 21 has the exit poll provincial results from Ipsos.

Lima is close (51.1% to PPK)

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Good site for results from. It's being updated as soon as they get the information.

ONPE, the official site.

PPK at 50.8% with 79.5% counted. Looks like he will make it. 

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Importantly PPK is leading in the entire southern highlands - so the leftist strongholds are - after all - voting for the "capitalist" against Keiko. (doubt about this was the main reason some thought Keiko would pull it off).

As an example PPK is at 67.1% in Cusco (Mendoza's base). 

Its of course far from over yet, but it looks like a PPK victory.

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PKK at 50.3% with 91% counted. She is getting closer..

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Spokesman for Fuerza Popular Pedro Spadaro: "The rural vote will bring us back to reality. We are confident that this vote will deliver us the result."

Also says they will under no circumstances concede before 100% is counted and the result validated by the JNE.