Peruvian General Election 2016

[Deleted]

99.56 of the total vote is counted - 99.82 in Peru, but it takes forever to finish the rest.

First continent finished: Africa. PKK won Africa 37-19, though they gave up conducting the election in Egypt and Ghana (only 3 voters in Ghana anyway).

Keiko got her best result in South Africa with 37.5% (15 of 40). While she got 22.2 in Marocco (2 of 7) and 28.6 in Algeria (2 of 9). There were 35 eligible voters in Egypt, so that might actually have influenced the result.

[Deleted]

Only 10 precincts uncounted now - 9 in Peru and 1in Ireland. PPK leads with c. 42,600.

The decisive factor seems to have been leftist voters in the southern highlads being unwilling to "experiment" with another Fujimorist after all. The anti-Fujimorist majority that originally led to the belief PPK would win relatively easy did materialize on a minor scale in the end - just enough to tip the balance after a string of polls showing Keiko ahead.

Expat vote

There is an interesting pattern in the expat vote. PPK won in North America, Europe, Africa, non-Japanese Asia and Oceania. Keiko won Japans (which is 90%+ of the Asia vote) and South America. Its almost symbolic that Panama was split almost evenly (with Keiko winning it) while PPK takes Costa Rica.

There are some exceptions, such as PPK narrowly winning Uruguay, but the overall picture is very clear. The Peruvian expats in South America are just poorer on average than the business types and academics that make up most of the expats in the rest of the (non-Japanese) world. Countries like Spain and Italy with many working class Peruvians were closer.

Keiko won Asia 79.8 to 20.2. Japan was 82.2 to 17.8. PPK won everything else except Vietnam (3-1 to Keiko). His wins in China and South Korea are interesting, but Peruvians there are not necessarily of Asian descent, so it doesn't have to be Chinese/Korean antipathy agains Japanese. More likely business interests.

PPK won Oceania 75.5 to 24.5. Keiko got 32.8 in NZ - much better for her than Australia, though only 110 votes in NZ.

PPK won Africa 66.1 to 33.9 (37-19), though they gave up conducting the election in Egypt and Ghana (only 3 voters in Ghana anyway).

Keiko got her best result in South Africa with 37.5% (15 of 40). While she got 22.2 in Marocco (2 of 7) and 28.6 in Algeria (2 of 9). There were 35 eligible voters in Egypt, so that might have influenced the continental result - though likely not.


Countries with 1000+ votes

PPK wins:
Belgium: PPK 73.0 Keiko 27.0
Brazil PPK 61.6 Keiko 38.4
Canada: PPK 66.5 Keiko 33.5
Costa Rica: PPK 56.9 Keiko 43.1
France: PPK 70.5 Keiko 29.5
Germany: PPK 78.9 Keiko 21.1
Italy: PKK 56.2 Keiko 43.8
Mexico: PPK 69.3 Keiko 30.7
Spain: PPK 57.7 Keiko 42.3
Sweden: PPK 69.6 Keiko 30.4
Switzerland: PPK 71.7 Keiko 28.3
United Kingdom: PKK: 73.1 Keiko 29.9 (only 1,045 voters)
USA: PPK 53.8% Keiko 46.2%

Keiko wins:
Argentina: Keiko 55.5 PPK 44.5
Bolivia: Keiko 53.5 PPK 46.5
Chile: Keiko 55.1 PPK 44.9
Colombia: Keiko 51.8 PPK 48.2
Ecuador: Keiko 57.2 PPK 42.8
Japan: Keiko 82.2 PPK 17.8
Panama: Keiko 50.9 PPK 49.1
Venezuela Keiko 66.2 PPK 33.8


100% wins

PPK:
Croatia (6-0)
Malaysia (5-0)
Macedonia (3-0)
Indonesia (2-0)

[Deleted]

"Even as messages of congratulations poured in from presidents around Latin America, Fujimori's campaign seemed in no rush to recognize defeat. After electoral authorities presented their results Thursday, she left her campaign headquarters, where she was holed up in meetings all day, and returned to her home without making any remarks to the throngs of journalists waiting outside.

Aides say she is waiting for the National Electoral Board, the nation's top electoral authority and which sits above the election officials who made Thursday's announcement, to proclaim a winner before conceding.

Fujimori's last hope is some 173 handwritten tallies — representing as many as 50,000 votes — that were sent to the board for review. Among the irregularities detected by Fujimori's campaign were counting more ballots than actual voters at certain polling stations, and allegations that volunteers from Kuczynski's campaign worked at multiple polling stations in violation of electoral law.

Still, experts say it's almost impossible for Fujimori to make up the roughly 40,000 vote difference to overtake Kuczynski."

(though since there are only 34 still not counted they probably do not represent more than 10,000 votes max.)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[Deleted]

Jun 10, 2016 18:48:04 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Didn't have much of a choice. Nearly all complaints have been handled (only 10 precincts are still under review) and unleashing a constitutional crisis would be pointless when her party controls Congress. 

Also, this result gives the Fujimoris one benefit:

If Keiko were elected, any action resulting in Alberto being released or put on house arrest would have been seen as her tipping the scales unfairly. She had to repudiate him rather extremely during the final weeks of the campaign, so any action pertaining to him would likely be limited and towards the very end of her term. He would also obviously have to keep his distance. 

With PPK in office Albertos release or house arrest will be a huge part of PPK working with the Fujimorist majority in Congress. So Alberto has a high likelihood of getting out much sooner and with less protest than if his daughter had sprung him.

[Deleted]

Keiko won the Americas 51.5 to 48.5 (118,871 to 111,879) based on valid votes, but no less than 11.1% were spoiled or blank.

Giant exception to the continental pattern: PPK won Brazil 61.6 to 38.4!
(though Keiko still won South America handily)

[Deleted]

Lima:

PPK 3,127,781 50.13%
Keiko 3,112,094 49.87%

The national result was 50.12 to 49.88. Lima has never been so close to the national result before. 

[Deleted]

The seven uncounted Peruvian precincts are all in a Cajamarca, which PPK leads with 1,026 votes. So Cajamarca and Ireland will be the last..

The Hiberno-Peruvian Sheen family used to have extensive agricultural and commercial interests in Cajamarca, so perhaps some transatlantic conspiracy ...

[Deleted]

Keiko won remarkably few expat constituencies:

Japan
Vietnam  (4 voters)

Haiti (4 voters)
"Netherlands Antilles" (hasn't been the name since 2010, but the Peruvians even operate with Yugoslavia (= Serbia) as a constituency ...)
Panama

Venezuela
Colombia
Ecuador
Bolivia
Paraguay
Chile
Argentina

(also, you could be prejudiced and say Peruvians in Panama, Netherlands Antilles and Haiti are likely involved in the drug trade in one way or another)

[Deleted]

The results from the last seven precincts in Cajamarca are simply recorded as "lost", however they managed to lose them . The Irish result has "more than one note" = several problems.

So it might take a while before the results are finalized.

[Deleted]

[Devil Wincarnate]

I hope PPK gets back the money the Fujimori clan handed to their mates.

[Deleted]

The result has now been finalized. They simply annulled both the 7 "lost precincts" in Cajamarca and all 122 votes in Ireland.

PPK ended up winning Europe 59-41 (62,855 to 43,685) and won all European countries.

[Arthur Figgis]

Jun 12, 2016 11:08:11 GMT @odo said:

PKK ended up winning Europe 59-41 (62,855 to 43,685) and won all European countries.

PKK won Turkey?



Thanks for the updates in a thrilling contest.

[Deleted]

Jun 12, 2016 11:11:13 GMT Arthur Figgis said:

Jun 12, 2016 11:08:11 GMT @odo said:

PKK ended up winning Europe 59-41 (62,855 to 43,685) and won all European countries.

PKK won Turkey?

I make that mistake regularly. The PKK acronym is simply too well ingrained in my brain.

Like most of Latin America Peru is non-PC, so they categorize Turkey as Asia, but yes, PPK did win it 9-1 (with 10 spoilt ballots, one of the highest shares).