Peruvian General Election 2016

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GFK exit poll 

Fujimori 39.9%
PPK 20.6%
Mendoza 20.3%


CPI exit poll

Keiko Fujimori 39.1%
PPK 19.7%
Verónika Mendoza 18.8%

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We can be sure there will be a run-off now. They are not that far off. And too small a margin between #2 and #3 to be sure PPK is really 2nd.

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Ipsos poll has:

Garcia 5.8
Santos 3.8
Toledo 1.4

(doesn't bother to mention the rest)

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Keiko ahead in 9 provinces, mostly along the northern and central coast, Mendoza in 2 (Cuzco being one of them, the other Puno at the Bolivian border). But of course very little counted. No numbers from the rest.

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Apr 10, 2016 21:27:27 GMT @pjones said:

According to the Ipsos exit poll Alan Garcia got 5.8% so it looks like Alianza Popular will pass the 5% threshold but we shall see.

AP will likely underpoll Garcia. 

I posted the Ipsos numbers above btw. Santos is at 3.8.

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Now 7 provinces to Mendoza (all in the south), 1 PPK (south), the rest to Keiko. Mendoza at 45.7 in Cuzco.

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So Acuñas party gets 11 seats despite him being barred. Organization and money.

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Santos ahead in Cajamarca, where he was governor (or regional president). Corruption no hindrance.

If Mendoza miss the run-off it will be because of Santos.

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Mendoza at 50%+ in three provinces. 56.6% in Huancavelica. Keiko also at 50%+ in three. 65.7 in Tumbes in the far north.

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Apr 11, 2016 13:38:31 GMT @pjones said:

Here is the official government results site

resultadoselecciones2016.onpe.gob.pe/PRPCP2016/Resumen-GeneralPresidencial.html

With 66.82% of the results counted the results so far are

Fujimori 39.46
PPK 23.73
Mendoza 17.12
Barnechea 7.54
Garcia 6.08
Santos 2.50
Olivera 1.36
Toledo 1.23
Hilario 0.50
Flores-Aráoz 0.49

Its 64.43% counted. The other number is those processed and includes those "PARA ENVÍO AL JEE" (for shipping/sending to JEE)

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Worth noticing that 85.88% is already in from Lima, so the vast majority of whats out is from the "interior" (provinces). Mendoza will get a lot closer.

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With 79.5% counted its:

Mendoza 2,367,724 - 18.27%
PKK 2,864,872  - 22.11%

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Keiko at 5,124,375 - 39.55%. But we know there will be a run-off, so less interesting. Half a million votes is too much for Mendoza to make up, even if the remaining 20.5% is a favorable terrain for her. 92.9% of the Lima vote in, so almost all of remaining is "interior". About 2.4% is from Lima and 18.1% from the provinces in what remains.

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Apr 11, 2016 22:15:47 GMT @pjones said:

I've now reset the poll for the second round

A bit early.

Based on whats out I think Mendoza will finish around 1% behind PPK, but you can not quite count her out yet. There is still a small chance.

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Apr 11, 2016 22:47:53 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 11, 2016 22:40:46 GMT @odo said:

A bit early.

Based on whats out I think Mendoza will finish around 1% behind PKK, but you can not quite count her out yet. There is still a small chance.

At 79.5 percent I thought I'd leave it a bit longer. Now with around 85% in and Mendoza still 3% behind. In order to get to the second round she's need to be at least 20% higher than PPK within the remaining 15%. Do you think that's possible? If I'm wrong and I've done a 'Dewey beats Truman' then, of course I'll reset the poll.

Its not likely, but its possible. Her vote is very concentrated in the southern (and to a lesser degree central) highlands. Its mostly Mendoza territory thats out. And Lima is almost fully in.

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Apr 11, 2016 23:00:53 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 11, 2016 22:51:40 GMT @odo said:

Its not likely, but its possible. Her vote is very concentrated in the southern (and to a lesser degree central) highlands. Its mostly Mendoza territory thats out. And Lima is almost fully in.

I noticed the concentration of support for her in the South. Do you know what the demographic reasons for that might be?

Poor highland Indians. The core vote of the Peruvian left.

Quechua as mother tongue (combine it with the one for Aymara and you got a fairly good fit for the Mendoza strongholds)


Aymara speakers

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Lima is now 100% counted. Mendoza only got 12.03%. Her brand of leftism is deemed old fashioned in the city, even by the leftists. Keiko at 40%+.

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91.30% counted

Fujimori 39.71
PPK 21.05
Mendoza 18.80

Still above 2% margin

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Apr 12, 2016 11:10:53 GMT @pjones said:

Apr 12, 2016 0:50:56 GMT @odo said:

Poor highland Indians. The core vote of the Peruvian left.

Quechua as mother tongue (combine it with the one for Aymara and you got a fairly good fit for the Mendoza strongholds)


Aymara speakers

looking at this map of the 2009 Bolivian General election it looks like you've got the same people being the core left wing vote in 'Upper Peru' as in Peru

Yes, of course. Evo Morales is Aymara.

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PNP has its roots in en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movimiento_Etnocacerista with Humala's father as a driving force, so both Indian Nationalism and social justice. Mendoza is white, but from Cusco and with a history of working for Indian rights.