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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 17, 2015 18:50:24 GMT
God bless you. Any chance you could do one with the percentages instead? The percentages are now on sheet 2. An interesting point is that after entering the data for each province I compared it to the actual totals at the 2011 election to make sure I hadn't made any mistakes. Usually there was a difference of between 1 and 5 votes, which is obviously due to rounding that occurred during the redistribution calculations. That's why the totals aren't exactly the same as the result of the 2011 election. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2015 3:19:26 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Oct 18, 2015 3:29:34 GMT
I haven't been following this Canadian general election as much as I normally do, but I've just noticed that the Green candidate in my sister's constituency is Mr Greene. He is also last in alphabetical order out of the 5 candidates.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2015 3:39:38 GMT
I haven't been following this Canadian general election as much as I normally do, but I've just noticed that the Green candidate in my sister's constituency is Mr Greene. He is also last in alphabetical order out of the 5 candidates. That must be Sturgeon River—Parkland (unless I've made a silly mistake). A very safe Conservative seat in Alberta where they would have won 77.5% last time. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2015 20:37:24 GMT
My prediction for the Canadian election:
Con 34%
Lib 34%
NDP 22%
BQ 5%
Green 4%
Con 135
Lib 125
NDP 73
BQ 4
Green 1
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 18, 2015 20:41:58 GMT
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 19, 2015 7:31:05 GMT
Important information for the election today (all times standardised to BST)
October 19th 2015
2300 Newfoundland and Labrador (7 constituencies) polls close
October 20th 2015
0000 Exit poll published on Canadian television
0030 New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia (25 constituencies) polls close
0230 All provinces bar British Columbia and the Yukon (264 constituencies) polls close
0330 Yukon and British Columbia (42 constituencies) polls close
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 19, 2015 7:40:33 GMT
Like many mannered and not very funny comedians he is a tedious and boring man and I cannot imagine his endorsement would be very helpful. I don't like him and suspect he is not very likeable? |
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Post by marksenior on Oct 19, 2015 7:52:13 GMT
Final polls
NANOS National Lib lead by 8 NDP at 21 - Quebec NDP 31.8 Lib 29.1 Con 19.7 BQ 16.3
FORUM National Lib lead by 10 NDP at 20 - Quebec Lib 36 NDP 21 Con 19 BQ 22
EKOS National Lib lead by 3.9 NDP at 20.4 - Quebec NDP 26 Lib 25 BQ 23 Con 19
IPSOS National Lib lead by 7 NDP at 22 - Quebec Lib 31 NDP 28 Con 21 BQ 17
Quebec results all over the place
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2015 9:03:56 GMT
My prediction for the Canadian election: Con 34% Lib 34% NDP 22% BQ 5% Green 4% Con 135 Lib 125 NDP 73 BQ 4 Green 1 The polls would have to be about as wrong as here in May for that to be the case (of course, they could be.....) |
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Post by A Brown on Oct 19, 2015 11:11:50 GMT
I agree with Andy's predictions for the NDP, Bloc and the Greens.
Quebec will indeed be very interesting, Mulcair's seat doesn't look especially safe and to see if the Liberals can extend their momentum outwith the Greater Montreal area.
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Post by bolbridge on Oct 19, 2015 11:22:45 GMT
I agree with Andy's predictions for the NDP, Bloc and the Greens. Quebec will indeed be very interesting, Mulcair's seat doesn't look especially safe and to see if the Liberals can extend their momentum outwith the Greater Montreal area. Can't say I can see Mulcair losing but it would be particularly amusing given the NDP's targeting of Papineau! |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 19, 2015 12:23:42 GMT
I haven't been following this Canadian general election as much as I normally do, but I've just noticed that the Green candidate in my sister's constituency is Mr Greene. He is also last in alphabetical order out of the 5 candidates. That must be Sturgeon River—Parkland (unless I've made a silly mistake). A very safe Conservative seat in Alberta where they would have won 77.5% last time. Yes - which is weird, because in the Alberta general election last year the NDP won a landslide victory (including winning my sister's constituency in the Alberta Assembly, which is Stony Plain. I suppose the weird thing is that the political parties are so different in Canada between the provincial level and the federal level. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Oct 19, 2015 13:22:45 GMT
These are the Liberal targets (all of these must go Liberal in order for them to have an overall majority)
Ranking Name of riding Province Lib
1 Winnipeg North Manitoba 0.20%
2 Mississauga—Malton Ontario 0.32%
3 Labrador Newfoundland 0.37%
4 Yukon Yukon 0.41%
5 Surrey—Newton British Columbia 0.60%
6 Etobicoke Centre Ontario 0.65%
7 Dartmouth—Cole Harbour Nova Scotia 0.85%
8 Honoré-Mercier Quebec 0.86%
9 Willowdale Ontario 1.14%
10 Don Valley West Ontario 1.20%
11 London North Centre Ontario 1.41%
12 Don Valley North Ontario 1.50%
13 Scarborough Centre Ontario 1.50%
14 Waterloo Ontario 1.53%
15 Pierrefonds—Dollard Quebec 1.83%
16 Brossard—Saint-Lambert Quebec 2.03%
17 Winnipeg South Centre Manitoba 2.28%
18 Mississauga Centre Ontario 2.49%
19 Etobicoke—Lakeshore Ontario 2.57%
20 Vancouver Granville British Columbia 2.64%
21 Scarborough Southwest Ontario 2.76%
22 Madawaska—Restigouche New Brunswick 2.85%
23 Brampton West Ontario 2.97%
24 Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe New Brunswick 3.13%
25 Ajax Ontario 3.15%
26 Scarborough North Ontario 3.25%
27 Brampton East Ontario 3.49%
28 Ottawa—Orléans Ontario 3.60%
29 York South—Weston Ontario 3.66%
30 Mississauga—Cooksville Ontario 3.69%
31 Richmond Hill Ontario 3.96%
32 Kitchener Centre Ontario 4.04%
33 Eglinton—Lawrence Ontario 4.20%
34 Vancouver South British Columbia 4.33%
35 Brampton South Ontario 5.01%
36 Mississauga—Lakeshore Ontario 5.03%
37 West Nova Nova Scotia 5.32%
38 Beaches—East York Ontario 5.44%
39 Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario 5.56%
40 Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia Quebec 5.64%
41 Dorval—Lachine Quebec 5.86%
42 Markham—Unionville Ontario 6.07%
43 Mississauga—Erin Mills Ontario 6.10%
44 Pickering—Uxbridge Ontario 6.20%
45 Ottawa West—Nepean Ontario 6.60%
46 University—Rosedale Ontario 6.63%
47 Ville-Marie Quebec 7.00%
48 Parkdale—High Park Ontario 7.15%
49 York Centre Ontario 7.64%
50 Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Quebec 8.01%
51 Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Ontario 8.74%
52 St. John’s South—Mount Pearl Newfoundland 8.82%
53 North Vancouver British Columbia 8.92%
54 Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Ontario 9.11%
55 London West Ontario 9.17%
56 Saint Boniface—Saint Vital Manitoba 9.46%
57 Winnipeg South Manitoba 9.87%
58 Alfred-Pellan Quebec 9.94%
59 Brome—Missisquoi Quebec 10.29%
60 Sault Ste. Marie Ontario 10.34%
61 Brampton North Ontario 10.36%
62 Oakville Ontario 10.46%
63 Brampton Centre Ontario 10.52%
64 Nunavut Nunavut 10.60%
65 Markham—Stouffville Ontario 10.77%
66 West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country British Columbia 10.99%
67 Surrey Centre British Columbia 11.13%
68 Vimy Quebec 11.17%
69 Edmonton Centre Alberta 11.24%
70 Fredericton New Brunswick 11.48%
71 Egmont Prince Edward Island 11.67%
72 Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Ontario 11.82%
73 Nepean Ontario 11.95%
74 South Shore—St. Margarets Nova Scotia 12.01%
75 Kenora Ontario 12.58%
76 Louis-Hébert Quebec 12.62%
77 Spadina—Fort York Ontario 12.63%
78 Davenport Ontario 12.91%
79 Vaughan—Woodbridge Ontario 12.93%
80 Halifax Nova Scotia 12.99%
81 Haldimand—Norfolk Ontario 13.01%
82 Laval—Les Îles Quebec 13.29%
83 Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec 13.43%
84 LaSalle—Verdun Quebec 13.44%
85 Thunder Bay—Rainy River Ontario 13.47%
86 Oakville North—Burlington Ontario 13.60%
87 Kanata—Carleton Ontario 13.62%
88 Western Arctic Ontario 13.70%
89 Calgary Skyview Alberta 13.81%
90 Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel Quebec 14.10%
91 Peterborough Ontario 14.12%
92 Burnaby North—Seymour British Columbia 14.26%
93 Niagara Centre Ontario 14.41%
94 Berthier—Maskinongé Quebec 14.58%
95 Delta British Columbia 14.69%
96 Brant Ontario 14.76%
97 King—Vaughan Ontario 14.81%
98 Saanich—Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca Ontario 14.85%
99 St. Catharines Ontario 14.98%
100 Saint-Maurice—Champlain Quebec 15.17%
101 Newmarket—Aurora Ontario 15.18%
102 Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup Quebec 15.29%
103 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario 15.34%
104 Milton Ontario 15.43%
105 Burlington Ontario 15.45%
106 Bay of Quinte Ontario 15.46%
107 Kitchener—Conestoga Ontario 15.47%
108 Soulanges—Vaudreuil Quebec 15.56%
109 Laurentides—Labelle Quebec 15.58%
110 Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Quebec 15.63%
111 Churchill—Keewatinook Aski Manitoba 15.91%
112 Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick 15.91%
113 Chicoutimi Quebec 15.96%
114 Sudbury Ontario 15.97%
115 Montarville Quebec 16.01%
116 Ottawa Centre Ontario 16.02%
117 Pontiac Quebec 16.05%
118 LeMoyne Quebec 16.06%
119 Fleetwood—Port Kells British Columbia 16.08%
120 Kitchener South—Hespeler Ontario 16.14%
121 Northumberland—Pine Ridge Ontario 16.14%
122 Burnaby South British Columbia 16.14%
123 Hamilton Mountain Ontario 16.40%
124 Charlevoix—Montmorency Quebec 16.46%
125 Centre-du-Bas-Saint-Laurent Quebec 16.69%
126 Louis-Saint-Laurent Quebec 16.75%
127 Beloeil—Chambly Quebec 16.79%
128 Québec Quebec 16.81%
129 Sherbrooke Quebec 16.83%
130 Thunder Bay—Superior North Ontario 16.84%
131 Saint John—Rothesay New Brunswick 16.87%
132 South Surrey—White Rock British Columbia 16.89%
133 Timmins—James Bay Ontario 16.97%
134 Essex Ontario 17.00%
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2015 15:47:32 GMT
This is likely to be an even more confusing election than normal with a lot of odd results and people elected via vote-split flukes. And that's if the polls are right. If they are wrong, then, Jesus.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2015 16:11:22 GMT
Couple of points to bear in mind:
1. The Canadian polling industry is really, really awful. Like, they make ours look competent. They make the Israeli polling industry look competent. Christ, they even make the Polish polling industry look competent. Don't transfer assumptions based on British elections to Canada: the polls could easily be wildly wrong in almost any direction. Canada is a rare land in which incumbent governments sometimes end up doing significantly worse than expected.
2. Although national movement is a thing, the electoral dynamo is provincial. Different provinces swing in different ways and at drastically different paces even when swinging the same way. The fact that the aforementioned dogshit polling industry prefers to release regional subsamples from federal polls rather than actually do provincial level polling is therefore quite scandalous in my view, but there's little we can do about it but grumble. But it means that you can't make quick assumptions about what's going on in terms of seats from national polling figures: once again, don't transfer assumptions based on British elections to Canada.
3. Most Canadians have very little sense of party loyalty and most of those that do have some have rather less of it than is normal in other industrialised nations. Extreme electoral movements in at least part of the country are thus the norm and have been seen in every federal election since at least the early 50s. Once again, don't transfer assumptions based on British elections to Canada.
4. Don't transfer assumptions based on British elections to Canada.
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Post by A Brown on Oct 19, 2015 16:25:39 GMT
Don't disagree with any of that. Given that the Tories appear to holding up well in the Prairies, I'm just generally assuming that a 10%+ Liberal lead in Ontario should/could be sufficient for the Liberals to be the largest party.
What will happen in BC and to a lesser extent Quebec is anyone's guess.
Following on from an earlier point from Trident the narrative in Quebec maybe seems to be more about fragmentation than one party dominating there now as well.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056
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Post by jamie on Oct 19, 2015 16:50:07 GMT
Does anyone actually know why the Liberals have suddenly jumped about 10% in the last few weeks? It just seems such a jump that it cannot be possible for a party to go from 3rd to 1st in a matter of a few weeks without any major events/scandals taking place (that I know of).
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Post by Ben Walker on Oct 19, 2015 17:04:14 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 17:06:48 GMT
Trudeau should end up as PM whatever happens as long as Mulcair isn't stupid enough to force a second election at which his party would probably lose even more seats than they're going to today.
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