Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2015 17:09:01 GMT
Does anyone actually know why the Liberals have suddenly jumped about 10% in the last few weeks? It just seems such a jump that it cannot be possible for a party to go from 3rd to 1st in a matter of a few weeks without any major events/scandals taking place (that I know of). Because its Canada and such things can happen (and do all the time). The Liberals dropping into third earlier in the campaign (after having super encouraging polls for most of the parliament) would count as equally bizarre in most countries, but not Canada. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056 
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Post by jamie on Oct 19, 2015 17:11:57 GMT
Does anyone actually know why the Liberals have suddenly jumped about 10% in the last few weeks? It just seems such a jump that it cannot be possible for a party to go from 3rd to 1st in a matter of a few weeks without any major events/scandals taking place (that I know of). I think it's just down to Mulcair running a perhaps overly bland and/or cautious campaign and a huge tactical shift especially in Ontario. But I just don't get how that could translate into such a huge shift, even by Canadian standards. I could understand a bland campaign putting off a few voters but not in their droves like the polls suggest. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2015 17:19:48 GMT
There was a big row about Muslim women wearing veils in passport ceremonies: it caused NDP support in Quebec to crash (because a lot of pure laine Quebecois - the NDP's main support base in the province - are racists) and the awkward handling of the issue cost credibility in Ontario. But this is not a huge shift by Canadian standards.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 19, 2015 17:42:26 GMT
What about Canadian polls just being crap?
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Post by bolbridge on Oct 19, 2015 18:05:53 GMT
Does anyone actually know why the Liberals have suddenly jumped about 10% in the last few weeks? It just seems such a jump that it cannot be possible for a party to go from 3rd to 1st in a matter of a few weeks without any major events/scandals taking place (that I know of). Basically a large number of Canadian voters will vote for the party best placed to defeat the Conservatives. In 2011 with the NDP surging in Quebec and the Libs faltering, voters switched from the Liberals (there were other reasons too) quite late on. In 2015, the NDP and Libs had both led the polls and both had arguments as to being more credible - NDP in seats but Libs in history and (probably) leadership. The NDP took a hit in Quebec (mostly to the benefit of the Conservatives and Bloc over the niqab issue) while Trudeau performed well across the country, so the Libs cemented their position as the main challenger to the Government and the NDP vote was squeezed. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2015 18:14:11 GMT
A quick run-through of what to expect/look out for when Trudeaumania II: Electric Boogaloo comes to your screens tonight...
Maritimes: the Liberals are likely to dominate here and will almost certainly make significant gains. The Conservatives will likely do very badly and may even be reduced to one or two seats. The NDP hold six seats in the region; this number will fall but it is not clear by how much.
Quebec: the NDP dominated here (to the shock of everyone let us not forget) last time, but now face the prospect of serious losses. Exactly how serious is impossible to be sure of. The Liberals will make serious gains. It is hard to say how well the Tories and the BQ will do. Almost anything could happen.
Ontario: a disaster for the Liberals in 2011, they now seem poised to sweep through the province. Exactly how well they do here will be critical to the overall result. Both the Tories and the NDP are under serious pressure, but ought to at least retain their strongholds. An area to watch may be the east of the province: historically a Liberal stronghold it has recently been dominated by the Tories. Quite a lot of seats there...
Manitoba: the Liberals are likely to make strong gains in Winnipeg and might fluke one or two elsewhere (it does happen sometimes). The Tories are under a huge amount of strain here, while the NDP are suffering due to an unpopular provincial government (but then thanks to said provincial government they have only two seats to defend).
Saskatchewan: new riding boundaries and the decline of Tory support nationally makes things harder to predict here than for years. There are potential against-the-grain gains for the NDP here and the Liberals have a few hopes as well. But nothing is certain: a proper poll would have been nice.
Alberta: the Tories are under pressure in the big cities and it is critical for them that the line holds. The Liberals would love to win a few seats here and maybe the NDP can still add to their total (even if this seems much less likely than a few months ago).
BC: as confusing a situation as Quebec, probably. The Tories are under monstrous strain here but if the vote splits work out right may emerge surprisingly unscathed. Or they may be reduced to a tiny emaciated rump. The Liberals will gain a lot of votes, but will they gain many seats? The NDP are under pressure in places but could make gains elsewhere. The Greens are super optimistic, but then they always are.
Territories: fuck knows.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2015 18:15:19 GMT
Yeah but also important is that the Liberals had also gained votes directly from the Tories and held onto them throughout the campaign, even when it was harder for them.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 18:58:59 GMT
What about Canadian polls just being crap? They may be crap but they can't be wrong about Liberal support almost doubling since the last election from 19% to about 36%. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 19:27:59 GMT
Interestingly the ridings where the Canadian Tories might make gains tonight are mostly in the Quebec City area and a few others mostly in that general part of the province. Possible gains include: Quebec, Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles, Jonquière, Louis-Saint-Laurent, Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier, Richmond—Arthabaska. www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2015 20:39:56 GMT
3. Most Canadians have very little sense of party loyalty and most of those that do have some have rather less of it than is normal in other industrialised nations. Extreme electoral movements in at least part of the country are thus the norm and have been seen in every federal election since at least the early 50s. Once again, don't transfer assumptions based on British elections to Canada. Ah, the Canadian classic "I am a member of the Liberals for work purposes but I've never voted for them"! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2015 20:47:00 GMT
Quebec: the NDP dominated here (to the shock of everyone let us not forget) last time, but now face the prospect of serious losses. Exactly how serious is impossible to be sure of. The Liberals will make serious gains. It is hard to say how well the Tories and the BQ will do. Almost anything could happen. A great summary, thanks for that. On this point in particular- he might run the PQ and not the BQ (of course it's all blurry), but PKP has put down an awful lot of cash to bring back the Nordiques to Quebec City. This cannot be discounted, because as we know, ice hockey and victimising certain minorities are proven vote-winners in parts of Quebec. Anyway, this is going to be a fuddle-duddling mess. |
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961
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Post by mondialito on Oct 19, 2015 21:07:30 GMT
Leaving this here in advance of the results.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2015 21:07:47 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 21:14:32 GMT
If anyone's interested? Of course we are!  |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 21:43:53 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Oct 19, 2015 21:44:44 GMT
My guess is that the Conservatives will do better than the polls suggest but not by enough to make a substantial difference.
As for the NDP, it is worth remembering that a big part of their success last time was the personal popularity of Jack Layton.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2015 21:51:20 GMT
CBC live feed reporting lots of stories of cock-ups at polling stations, legitimate voters being turned away.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 21:52:47 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2015 22:25:45 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 19, 2015 23:01:06 GMT
Newfoundland & Labrador closing as we speak, according to CBC.
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