Hash
Non-Aligned
Posts: 116 
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Post by Hash on Oct 14, 2015 2:52:45 GMT
EKOS (which is, I think, a trash pollster even by Canadian standards) now shows a substantial swing to the Liberals, who now lead 35.6 (+2.5) to 31.1 (-4.4) with the NDP down in the dumps (20.6, although +1.6); lining up with other pollsters now, after having been the outlier for a while. The Liberals lead by 12 in Ontario too. Today's Ipsos has a 6-pt Liberal lead, with a 13 point lead in Ontario but weird outlier numbers in QC (L 29 C 26 NDP 24 BQ 20).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 14, 2015 11:40:30 GMT
Canada flirts with conservatism, teases socialism, and decides to head back to criminality.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2015 11:43:21 GMT
Indeed, looking depressingly like all Agent Ignatieff's good work may ultimately have been in vain.....
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 14, 2015 14:38:25 GMT
Canada flirts with conservatism, teases socialism, and decides to head back to criminality. What, is Paul Martin making a comeback?! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 14, 2015 17:58:51 GMT
Canada flirts with conservatism, teases socialism, and decides to head back to criminality. The Liberal brand is still a strong one (even if the party no longer has the depth of support it used to: this is not going to go away as a problem) and one that Canadian voters have a history of returning to when things seem at all difficult. Additionally the Trudeau name is worth something (i.e. PET was controversial rather than hated; that means a lot of people liked him) and is overall a clear net positive. And this is Canada, the land of the fickle voter. Biebertrudeau was either going to crash and burn in the campaign or do very well. There's a non negligible chance (i.e. I mention this as a possibility rather than as a prediction) that the incumbent government finishes third in terms of seats. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 14, 2015 23:55:07 GMT
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Hash
Non-Aligned
Posts: 116
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Post by Hash on Oct 15, 2015 19:35:50 GMT
The Liberal lead shows no sign of diminishing in the final days - indeed, it seems like a Liberal landslide of fairly massive proportions is shaping up in Ontario (which may allow them to win a majority), while BC and QC will seemingly be quite crazy and unpredictable in seat outcomes. Likewise, if riding polls are worth anything, then the Tories may be in for some really bad results, potentially indicating a third place finish, although I very strongly doubt it will come to that (I also have a hard time seeing a Liberal majority).
I look forward to the rule of our Prime Minister Biebertrudeau (a nickname which I made up, probably my proudest creation and most substantive contribution to political discussion).
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 16, 2015 14:37:15 GMT
Prime Minister Biebertrudeau has the potential to be such a hot mess that maybe even those of us who do not like the Liberal Party of Can-a-dah should be secretly hoping for it.
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Post by marksenior on Oct 16, 2015 16:37:32 GMT
Three more new polls differing results , someone going to be very wrong in Quebec
FORUM National Lib lead by 6 NDP at 24 - Quebec Lib 29 NDP 27 BQ 23 Con 18
EKOS National Lib lead by 0.9 NDP at 22.9 - Quebec NDP 34 Con 23 Lib 22 BQ 14
NANOS National Lib lead by 5.9 NDP at 23.5 - Quebec Lib 31.3 NDP 29.8 Con 17.4 BQ 16.8
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Hash
Non-Aligned
Posts: 116
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Post by Hash on Oct 16, 2015 16:51:04 GMT
EKOS' numbers for Quebec have seemed to be junk these past weeks - for one, they were the ones which put out a poll which had the Tories first in the province, which no other pollster saw.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 16, 2015 16:52:27 GMT
Quebec is Canada's Gwynedd.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Oct 16, 2015 17:48:51 GMT
I'm hoping for a Liberal/Conservative coalition with the Conservatives as the junior partner - then they will be stuffed at the next election.
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Hash
Non-Aligned
Posts: 116
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Post by Hash on Oct 16, 2015 17:57:06 GMT
I'm hoping for a Liberal/Conservative coalition with the Conservatives as the junior partner - then they will be stuffed at the next election. Didn't you know? Coalitions are illegal. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 16, 2015 18:59:06 GMT
Elizabeth May appears to be trying to impose herself as informateur. Laughable.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 17, 2015 3:35:06 GMT
Interesting fact: last year the "Western Arctic" riding was re-named "Northwest Territories" since it covers the same area as that territory. (A bit odd that it's a territory in the singular when it has a name implying the plural).
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
Member is Online
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Post by maxque on Oct 17, 2015 8:53:26 GMT
I'm hoping for a Liberal/Conservative coalition with the Conservatives as the junior partner - then they will be stuffed at the next election. No. Conservatives are so hated than nobody would wantt anything to do with them. Also, in 2008, Harper repeated again and again than coalitions are illegitimate and undemocratic. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 17, 2015 9:45:05 GMT
Interesting fact: last year the "Western Arctic" riding was re-named "Northwest Territories" since it covers the same area as that territory. (A bit odd that it's a territory in the singular when it has a name implying the plural). Isn't that a historical thing? (ie in the days before Nunavut was created, it used to have three sub-divisions) |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 17, 2015 18:14:42 GMT
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Hash
Non-Aligned
Posts: 116
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Post by Hash on Oct 17, 2015 18:31:01 GMT
God bless you. Any chance you could do one with the percentages instead? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 17, 2015 18:49:59 GMT
It's not difficult to download the spreadhseet and calculate the percentages for all the seats
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