|
|
Post by bolbridge on Sept 8, 2015 15:53:03 GMT
Nanos, Léger and Forum all have the Libs overtaking the Conservatives and the NDP ahead. Difficult to know what this means, as it appears that there are relatively few Liberal and Conservative voters willing to consider the other party (nothwithstanding the apparent Con-Lib swing), whereas around half of Lib and NDP voters put the other as their second preference. 308 are predicting a close 3-way result (122, 114, 101 NDP Lib Con). www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.htmlIt is certainly interesting and hard to read what will happen. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
|
Post by Sibboleth on Sept 8, 2015 16:06:07 GMT
It doesn't help that Canadian pollsters are even worse than ours.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2015 16:13:21 GMT
It doesn't help that Canadian pollsters are even worse than ours. Angus Reid springs straight to mind. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2015 16:53:52 GMT
Have any of the parties discussed coalition partners?
|
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Sept 8, 2015 19:54:45 GMT
It doesn't help that Canadian pollsters are even worse than ours. Angus Reid springs straight to mind. Actually Angus Reid have had the most accurate final poll in both the 2008 and 2011 Canadian elections. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2015 20:00:17 GMT
Angus Reid springs straight to mind. Actually Angus Reid have had the most accurate final poll in both the 2008 and 2011 Canadian elections. So I understand. It's a pity their gold standard wasn't replicated when they tried polling over here in 2010. I wish they had been right; they were the only ones giving us double digit leads over Labour. |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
|
Post by Khunanup on Sept 8, 2015 21:23:13 GMT
It doesn't help that Canadian pollsters are even worse than ours. Also that clear regional patterns are so extreme so that even when a party goes into meltdown nationally there's certain provinces/major regions that will deliver them the majority of their seats (even more of the case now that the NDP have done what they've done in Quebec). |
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Sept 9, 2015 23:34:56 GMT
Nanos Poll putting Libs in the lead (L 32.5 N 31.2 C 25.9).
Pretty shocking - if they maintain this breakthrough the Libs could win a majority (it all seems too good to be true for me so I don't want to make predictions).
Of couse the regional breakdown is pretty stark:
Libs comfortably ahead in Atlantic Canada and Ontario
NDP walking Quebec again
BC has narrowed (but NDP ahead)
Cons comfortably ahead in the Praries. Big drop from 2011 but I don't know if many seats are realistically vulnerable.
Caveat: this is of course just one poll but follows recent trends.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
|
Post by maxque on Sept 10, 2015 0:50:23 GMT
Nanos has a Liberal lean, though.
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,229
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Sept 23, 2015 18:48:48 GMT
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,229
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 7, 2015 0:19:37 GMT
Starling figures from Quebec, with the Conservatives tied for first place with the NDP:
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
|
Post by Khunanup on Oct 7, 2015 2:14:31 GMT
Starling figures from Quebec, with the Conservatives tied for first place with the NDP: Those look very high Tory numbers across the board (apart from the atlantics) and they are sub samples which Canadian pollsters tend to put way too much emphasis on. 61% in Alberta for example along with the numbers in Quebec just look all wrong. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
|
Post by maxque on Oct 7, 2015 2:26:27 GMT
Also, most pollsters have Liberals in front, not Conservatives.
|
|
Andrew_S
Top Poster
Posts: 28,229
Member is Online
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2015 21:07:54 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Oct 9, 2015 22:05:21 GMT
Except in the latest Nanos poll where they are 3rd in Quebec and latest Leger poll where they are 4th or latest EKOS poll where they are equal 2nd but Mainstream does have them equal first joint with Liberals . |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 11, 2015 13:39:04 GMT
It appears that the narrative really is that the NDP are facing a fight in Quebec.http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/topstories/canada-election-2015-grenier-quebec-oct9-1.3265698
|
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Oct 11, 2015 15:24:40 GMT
4 new polls
EKOS Narrowest lead possible Liberals over Conservatives NDP poor 3rd - Quebec Liberals 1st NDP 2nd Con 3rd but all close
NANOS Big Liberal lead over Conservaives NDP closer 3rd - Quebec clear lead for Liberal , clear 2nd for NDP poor 3rd for Con
ARI Smaller Liberal lead over Con NDP 3rd with 25% - Quebec noting like other pollsters NDP 1st BQ 2nd Liberal 3rd Con 4th
Innovative Clear Liberal lead over Con NDP 3rd - Quebec NDP 1st Liberal 2nd BQ 3rd Con 4th
|
|
|
|
Post by bolbridge on Oct 11, 2015 16:23:33 GMT
It appears that the narrative really is that the NDP are facing a fight in Quebec.http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/topstories/canada-election-2015-grenier-quebec-oct9-1.3265698 The veil issue has cost them francophone sovereignist votes to both the Conservatives and the Bloc. |
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Oct 12, 2015 15:53:40 GMT
Three more polls with differing results
EKOS Conservatives lead nationally by 2.4% NDP lowest figure recently at 19 - Quebec close 3 way order NDP,Lib,Con
NANOS Liberal lead nationally by 6.8% - Quebec order NDP,Lib,Con wider margin than EKOS
Forum Even larger Liberal lead nationally - Quebec order Lib,NDP,Con
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2015 16:56:01 GMT
Liberals have come from no where and look like they will be the largest party.
|
|
