2015 Canadian General Election

[marksenior]

Ipsos-Reid

NDP 33 N/C
Lib 30 plus 2
Con 29 minus 2
PQ and Green 4 each N/C

EKOS poll due out later today

[marksenior]

Ekos

NDP 34 plus 2
Con 28 minus 2
Lib 27 plus 3
Gre 6 minus 1
PQ 4 N/C

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I've just been followed on Twitter by the leader of the Green Party of Ontario. What does this mean?

[greenhert]

He follows me on Twitter as well, David....I am not sure what it means.

[Khunanup]

Aug 30, 2015 14:42:22 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I've just been followed on Twitter by the leader of the Green Party of Ontario. What does this mean?

It's the equivalent of being followed by Pippa Bartolotti...

[jamie]

Aug 30, 2015 16:09:14 GMT Khunanup said:

Aug 30, 2015 14:42:22 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I've just been followed on Twitter by the leader of the Green Party of Ontario. What does this mean?

It's the equivalent of being followed by Pippa Bartolotti...

I find this way funnier than I should.

[finsobruce]

Aug 30, 2015 19:58:00 GMT jamie said:

Aug 30, 2015 16:09:14 GMT Khunanup said:

It's the equivalent of being followed by Pippa Bartolotti...

I find this way funnier than I should.

jamie, you're going to fit in perfectly here...

[neilm]

As long as you have side interests in trains and real ale...

[Khunanup]

Canada goes into recession: www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34116189

Bad news for Harper, I now expect the Tories to come third in the popular vote (with them sliding gently down in the polls anyway as well). A real opportunity for the Liberals in particular to stamp their authority on the economic argument with more debates coming up where I would expect Trudeau to do well.

[The Bishop]

A nice thought, but the Canadian Tories do seem to be annoyingly resilient in recent years all told.....

[A Brown]

Sept 2, 2015 12:42:56 GMT @trident said:

There's a solid core of at least 30% of the electorate in Canada that is centre-right, as is the case in almost all advanced democracies. The Tories will not come third.

I find this election hard to call and I suppose it depends on the electoral geography. The Tories seem to be stagnating badly in Quebec and BC but I assume they are more reslient in their strongest areas and Ontario.

On balance i think the NDP with a very small seat lead over the Tories is most likely.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Is Canada still doing its thing where it bans anyone reporting the results in the east while the west is still voting?

[carlton43]

Sept 2, 2015 12:52:07 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Is Canada still doing its thing where it bans anyone reporting the results in the east while the west is still voting?

Is that possible with the Internet?  Jim phones me the results and I put them online here in Britain.

[The Bishop]

One of the (Labour supporting) members of this forum mentions breaking Canadian election laws in his Twitter bio

[jamie]

Out of interest because I can't find it anywhere on the internet, are there any seats apart from Elizabeth May's that could go Green?
They will probably even up with around 5-8% but I can't find any places where they were anywhere near winning last time, and I know Canada has a history of big swings in individual seats, but I still don't know where they would be expected to occur.

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2015 12:52:07 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Is Canada still doing its thing where it bans anyone reporting the results in the east while the west is still voting?

No, it was repealed in 2014 having been deemed to be unenforceable.

[Deleted]

Sept 2, 2015 13:01:21 GMT The Bishop said:

One of the (Labour supporting) members of this forum mentions breaking Canadian election laws in his Twitter bio

Strictly speaking I breached no laws as, not being a resident of Canada, they didn't apply to me.

[greenhert]

Victoria, possibly-the Canadian Greens nearly won it in a by-election back in 2012, and possibly a few other constituencies in Vancouver Island, British Columbia (such as Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke) where they had much stronger than average showings in 2011. They have also done reasonably well in some ridings in Alberta, but the Conservative majorities in those Alberta ridings are too high for any realistic chance of a Green victory.

[jamie]

Sept 2, 2015 13:56:58 GMT greenhert said:

Victoria, possibly-the Canadian Greens nearly won it in a by-election back in 2012, and possibly a few other constituencies in Vancouver Island, British Columbia (such as Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke) where they had much stronger than average showings in 2011. They have also done reasonably well in some ridings in Alberta, but the Conservative majorities in those Alberta ridings are too high for any realistic chance of a Green victory.

Thanks. I find Canadian politics a lot harder to predict than British as they have a much more multi-party democracy, and the Greens seem to be able to win substantial support from previously Conservative voters, so it's hard to work out seat predictions in my view.

[bolbridge]

I find this election much harder to predict than most. For me the most likely outcome is that at some stage the Lib vote gets squeezed - much as I don't want this to happen.

However, given how volatile Canadian politics has been in recent years and how quickly things can change (NDP surge 2011) I wouldn't rule out any of the main 3 parties winning - or even any of them winning an overall majority, although there doesn't seem to be a path for Harper to get a majority.

I think the Green MP will hold on but their vote will get squeezed in general.