Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 6:37:18 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 8:21:30 GMT
For Labour, seeing those numbers must be painful, lucky for them the SNP will be jumping into bed with them after the GE.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 4, 2015 8:29:46 GMT
For Labour, seeing those numbers must be painful, lucky for them the SNP will be jumping into bed with them after the GE. Which could of course be helping the SNP- you get your protest vote and the MP ends up supporting Labour anyway. Is this part of the narrative in Scotland at the moment?
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Post by thirdchill on Feb 4, 2015 8:31:20 GMT
For Labour, seeing those numbers must be painful, lucky for them the SNP will be jumping into bed with them after the GE. Which could of course be helping the SNP- you get your protest vote and the MP ends up supporting Labour anyway. Is this part of the narrative in Scotland at the moment? Which nullifies the 'Tartan Tories' argument that labour have (failed) to make over a number of years.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 8:33:57 GMT
For Labour, seeing those numbers must be painful, lucky for them the SNP will be jumping into bed with them after the GE. Which could of course be helping the SNP- you get your protest vote and the MP ends up supporting Labour anyway. Is this part of the narrative in Scotland at the moment? Conservatives and Lib Dems should run a campaign in Scotland "Vote SNP, Get Labour".
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 4, 2015 9:27:05 GMT
On more important matters: Glasgow North East has UKIP polling 5%. Finally.Maybe there is a Scottish seat where we can save our deposit! UKIP did save their deposit in one Scottish seat in 2010: Orkney & Shetland.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 10:58:24 GMT
Am I making a school boy error here?
But when you look at the data tables. Labour have one source of solace, which is the over 65s
We can all concur that the over 65s are the most liekly to vote and the largest part of the voting population.
Yet in Lord Ashcrofts poll he has 28% of the his actual respondents in the over 65s weighted down to only 18% of the actual respondents
and in the 18-24 section where he can only find 5% of the total respondents he weights this up to 14% this section had a 20% lead for the SNP
The over 65s had a lead of 23% for Labour
Is this another Doncaster North, will Ashcroft be going back on his polls?
Or have I read the figures wrongly?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2015 11:37:12 GMT
Am I making a school boy error here? But when you look at the data tables. Labour have one source of solace, which is the over 65s We can all concur that the over 65s are the most liekly to vote and the largest part of the voting population. Yet in Lord Ashcrofts poll he has 28% of the his actual respondents in the over 65s weighted down to only 18% of the actual respondents and in the 18-24 section where he can only find 5% of the total respondents he weights this up to 14% this section had a 20% lead for the SNP The over 65s had a lead of 23% for Labour Is this another Doncaster North, will Ashcroft be going back on his polls? Or have I read the figures wrongly? Well in most of the areas polled not that many people live beyond 65. Flippant response, but shockingly close to the truth.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2015 11:42:05 GMT
8% for the Greens in Glasgow North - I'd hoped for a bit better, but it's a start. Also in deposit saving territory in Central.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 11:50:28 GMT
8% for the Greens in Glasgow North - I'd hoped for a bit better, but it's a start. Also in deposit saving territory in Central. Err, 11% in North, surely?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2015 11:57:29 GMT
8% for the Greens in Glasgow North - I'd hoped for a bit better, but it's a start. Also in deposit saving territory in Central. Err, 11% in North, surely? Oops read the wrong table.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 12:00:23 GMT
Err, 11% in North, surely? Oops read the wrong table. Feel a bit better now, then?
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 4, 2015 15:45:11 GMT
Gordon swing repeated in Lib Dem seats might give us a few seats with our incumbents (obviously with the Inverness swing we're fucked)
Aberdeenshire West SNP - 37% Lib Dem - 28% Conservative - 22% Labour - 8%
Caithness SNP - 40% Lib Dem - 31% Labour - 19% Conservative - 4%
Ross Lib Dem - 43% SNP - 36% Labour - 9% Conservative - 2%
Argyll SNP - 40% Lib Dem - 22% Labour - 17% Conservative - 16%
Fife NE SNP - 35% Lib Dem - 34% Conservative - 14% Labour - 11%
Dunbartonshire East SNP - 32% Labour - 29% Lib Dem - 29% Conservative - 8%
Berwickshire Lib Dem - 35% SNP - 30% Conservative - 26% Labour - 4%
Edinburgh West SNP - 34% Lib Dem - 26% Labour - 22% Conservative - 15%
Orkney & Shetland Lib Dem - 52% SNP - 32% Labour - 5% Conservative - 3%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 16:23:42 GMT
Gordon swing repeated in Lib Dem seats might give us a few seats with our incumbents (obviously with the Inverness swing we're fucked) Aberdeenshire West SNP - 37% Lib Dem - 28% Conservative - 22% Labour - 8% Caithness SNP - 40% Lib Dem - 31% Labour - 19% Conservative - 4% Ross Lib Dem - 43% SNP - 36% Labour - 9% Conservative - 2% Argyll SNP - 40% Lib Dem - 22% Labour - 17% Conservative - 16% Fife NE SNP - 35% Lib Dem - 34% Conservative - 14% Labour - 11% Dunbartonshire East SNP - 32% Labour - 29% Lib Dem - 29% Conservative - 8% Berwickshire Lib Dem - 35% SNP - 30% Conservative - 26% Labour - 4% Edinburgh West SNP - 34% Lib Dem - 26% Labour - 22% Conservative - 15% Orkney & Shetland Lib Dem - 52% SNP - 32% Labour - 5% Conservative - 3% This is a bit of a daft exercise, we mostly have polling from areas voting Yes so to try and trying to use any of those swings in seats that voted No is bonkers. SNP polling 32% in Orkney and Shetland? Really? Oh well, we all like to entertain ourselves.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2015 16:38:54 GMT
Neither Gordon nor Inverness were in Yes voting areas. Just saying.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2015 16:40:36 GMT
If these are correct then I'm disappointed with his choice of seats. I would be pretty pleased with Gordon, but Inverness is dire. You're holding second in Inverness - that was by no means a given. It must be said the Labour performance is Inverness is also pretty bad.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 4, 2015 16:49:54 GMT
I think what these polls show is that the SNP is on course to rip a big chunk right through Labour's central belt heartland. However, the swings here are bigger than the overall national swing, indicating that Labour might hold up better in other areas - Aberdeen, Stirling and Edinburgh perhaps and maybe hang on to a few more seats, but it still looks pretty grim for them.
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 4, 2015 17:12:15 GMT
Gordon swing repeated in Lib Dem seats might give us a few seats with our incumbents (obviously with the Inverness swing we're fucked) Aberdeenshire West SNP - 37% Lib Dem - 28% Conservative - 22% Labour - 8% Caithness SNP - 40% Lib Dem - 31% Labour - 19% Conservative - 4% Ross Lib Dem - 43% SNP - 36% Labour - 9% Conservative - 2% Argyll SNP - 40% Lib Dem - 22% Labour - 17% Conservative - 16% Fife NE SNP - 35% Lib Dem - 34% Conservative - 14% Labour - 11% Dunbartonshire East SNP - 32% Labour - 29% Lib Dem - 29% Conservative - 8% Berwickshire Lib Dem - 35% SNP - 30% Conservative - 26% Labour - 4% Edinburgh West SNP - 34% Lib Dem - 26% Labour - 22% Conservative - 15% Orkney & Shetland Lib Dem - 52% SNP - 32% Labour - 5% Conservative - 3% This is a bit of a daft exercise, we mostly have polling from areas voting Yes so to try and trying to use any of those swings in seats that voted No is bonkers. SNP polling 32% in Orkney and Shetland? Really? Oh well, we all like to entertain ourselves. Gordon I'd think would be the most 'no' of the seats polled, though possibly more 'yes' than any of our other seats (I believe I am correct in saying that the 'yes' vote in Highland was heavily concentrated in Inverness) so things may not look too awful for us. Obviously this is very rough, but I was using it to illustrate a point.
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iain
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Post by iain on Feb 4, 2015 17:14:31 GMT
If these are correct then I'm disappointed with his choice of seats. I would be pretty pleased with Gordon, but Inverness is dire. You're holding second in Inverness - that was by no means a given. It must be said the Labour performance is Inverness is also pretty bad. Looking at it in the light of day, our score in Inverness is pretty much what I expected (probably would have though closer to 25% than 20%, but in the grand scheme this is irrelevant). What I was surprised by is just how well the SNP are doing (and how badly Labour are), thus making our performance look worse. Pleasantly surprised to be second in both on the general question too (albeit a long way behind the SNP)
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2015 17:36:38 GMT
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