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Post by andrewp on Dec 11, 2019 21:54:07 GMT
Survation have just announced a poll for Stockton South. Con 46 Lab 43 Brexit 7 LD 3 A small Lab to Con 2.3% swibg here, uf this us anything like correct. That would be a national lead of about 7% |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 11, 2019 21:59:11 GMT
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 12, 2019 1:15:12 GMT
If the Tories are holding up pretty much completely in ultra remain parts of London then they are not surging in Brexit voting North/Midlands (have to make the national numbers ultimately add up). Either means that the constituency polls are wrong or we are not heading for the realignment that many are predicting. Judging by past history, i would be more sceptical of the constituency polls. Quite a few of the constituency polls outside London (such as Great Grimsby and Wrexham) have been worse for Labour/better for the Tories than what the national polls are suggesting. But, as you say, constituency polls should have some significant amount of salt applied to them. Though it's worth noting that any given series of constituency polls almost never includes enough safe seats that we can actually compare them with national polls. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Mar 3, 2024 13:16:44 GMT
Shall we dig this one up again? After all the election is a knocking on the door.
So:
Basically Hunt is trailing the LD's. Although the numbers look off.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Mar 3, 2024 13:49:48 GMT
Large dollops of salt as always with this kind of exercise, but those numbers are atrocious for Hunt - trailing the Lib Dems and a Labour vote of 23% to squeeze.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 3, 2024 14:59:05 GMT
He was trailing in the YouGov and Electoral Calculus MRP too. This poll is a tad better for the Lib Dems.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2024 15:09:13 GMT
I don't believe the poll as such, but that's mostly because the Labour vote is conveniently/suspicious high for the obvious SQUEEZE message (similar comments apply to some other recent Survation constituency polls). No reason to believe that he's not in trouble, though I would carefully advise the LibDems to avoid a particularly loud and noisy personality-driven campaign as we all know from experience that can backfire.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
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Post by Khunanup on Mar 3, 2024 18:07:58 GMT
I don't believe the poll as such, but that's mostly because the Labour vote is conveniently/suspicious high for the obvious SQUEEZE message (similar comments apply to some other recent Survation constituency polls). No reason to believe that he's not in trouble, though I would carefully advise the LibDems to avoid a particularly loud and noisy personality-driven campaign as we all know from experience that can backfire. Not done by us though. And this is quite a changed seat so the 'loyalty' of Hunt being the local MP has a lesser impact. That also makes the polled Labour vote much more plausible. |
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 4, 2024 16:16:12 GMT
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Post by andrewp on May 1, 2024 12:46:33 GMT
Portsmouth North
CON: 39% (-22)
LAB: 35% (+8)
RFM: 15% (New)
LDM: 7% (=)
GRN: 4% (+1)
Via @techneuk, 9-19 Apr.
Changes w/ GE2019.
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Post by evergreenadam on Jun 18, 2024 18:00:56 GMT
Gillingham and Rainham for The Economist:
Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional)
LAB: 55% (+27)
CON: 23% (-39)
REF: 15% (+15)
LDEM: 5% (=)
GRN: 2% (=)
@wethinkpolling/@theeconomist, 5th-16th June
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 18, 2024 18:31:31 GMT
This poll feels patently nonsense - if you applied these swings nationally you’d have single figure numbers for the Conservatives and Reform only at 15% feels odd unless their vote really is uniform nationally - but also like I feel if you are the Tories and even a rogue poll had you 30% behind in Gillingham and Rainham I’d feel slightly worried. This is an area where it’ll be interesting to see results though…
Great opportunities for “People’s Republic of Gillingham” jokes for the next couple of weeks though.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452
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Post by iain on Jun 18, 2024 19:10:56 GMT
This poll feels patently nonsense - if you applied these swings nationally you’d have single figure numbers for the Conservatives and Reform only at 15% feels odd unless their vote really is uniform nationally - but also like I feel if you are the Tories and even a rogue poll had you 30% behind in Gillingham and Rainham I’d feel slightly worried. This is an area where it’ll be interesting to see results though… Great opportunities for “People’s Republic of Gillingham” jokes for the next couple of weeks though. It doesn't seem unreasonable for the swing in north Kent to be (possibly quite a lot) higher than average however |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 18, 2024 19:44:58 GMT
This poll feels patently nonsense - if you applied these swings nationally you’d have single figure numbers for the Conservatives and Reform only at 15% feels odd unless their vote really is uniform nationally - but also like I feel if you are the Tories and even a rogue poll had you 30% behind in Gillingham and Rainham I’d feel slightly worried. This is an area where it’ll be interesting to see results though… Great opportunities for “People’s Republic of Gillingham” jokes for the next couple of weeks though. It doesn't seem unreasonable for the swing in north Kent to be (possibly quite a lot) higher than average however Remembering that Labour held most of these seats in 2005, I'd agree, despite the large Conservative majorities in 2019. It does seem that this is a very volatile part of the country. |
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Post by IceAgeComing on Jun 18, 2024 19:53:24 GMT
There's a bit higher than average; and then a 33% swing though - although I guess with the levels of swing we appear to be looking at nationally it's not completely obsene. Its also not unprecedented for a local area to have swings at that level at this point - there were comparable numbers in Scotland in 2015 (very different scenario - although I guess if you link Scottish Labour and the Tories as parties with a historically strong presence in an area that simply had a mass loss of trust from voters then its credible).
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 18, 2024 19:59:31 GMT
Gillingham and Rainham for The Economist: Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional) LAB: 55% (+27) CON: 23% (-39) REF: 15% (+15) LDEM: 5% (=) GRN: 2% (=) @wethinkpolling/@theeconomist, 5th-16th June Sample size was only 376 including 18% Dont Knows - so just over 300 firm responses. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 18, 2024 20:03:01 GMT
Gillingham and Rainham for The Economist: Gillingham & Rainham voting intention (+/- 5%, changes vs 2019 notional) LAB: 55% (+27) CON: 23% (-39) REF: 15% (+15) LDEM: 5% (=) GRN: 2% (=) @wethinkpolling/@theeconomist, 5th-16th June Is that an actual proper poll, or a projection / extrapolation using multiple thingy bla-bla? If the former, why did they choose to poll this particular constituency? |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 21, 2024 11:29:46 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,144
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Post by cogload on Jun 21, 2024 11:30:14 GMT
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graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,350
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Post by graham on Jun 21, 2024 11:35:28 GMT
But 44% replied Don't Know. Before DK's were removed the poll results were
Green 21% Con 16% Lab 8% Ref 7% LD 2% DK 44%
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