Ashcroft has polled this constituency twice. In May he published a 10 point Labour lead on the standard voting intention question, and a 7 point Labour lead on the constituency voting intention. In July those leads had dropped to 6 and 3 respectively. The Survation poll named the candidates, so would be more comparable to Ashcroft's constituency question. This might suggest a personal vote helping Wharton, but any such conclusions must be tentative.
Any particular reason Unite would hold a poll in this seat? Do they sponsor the Labour candidate, for example?
The poll also included the following
TTIP - The EU - US Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership
We also asked Stockton South residents about the US-EU trade agreement known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We found that when put:
Only 18% supported inclusion of the NHS in the agreement with 63% opposed
60% thought David Cameron should seek to exclude the NHS from the agreement
51% told Survation the Prime Minister should veto TTIP should he fail to gain a guaranteed opt-out for the NHS. Only 17% thought a veto was not appropriate
It was also Unite who commissioned the second Survation constituency poll in the Rochester and Strood by election and that also asked about TTIP. I suspect the constituency was picked simply because it is a marginal , I suspect these polls have more to do with promoting Unite's political agenda than they have to do with any particular candidate.
Whilst it is obviously not good news for Labour to be trailing here, we should remember that SS is a polarised constituency that tends to see low swings outside of "realigning" elections. It has always been likely to be close, and people should avoid drawing sweeping conclusions about the national picture from it (needless to say, some in the MSM have been unable to avoid doing just that)
"The New Labour 'project' was finished by the 2005 election: its creative energies were exhausted and its failures increasingly apparent"
On further investigation it seems most of the Kent seats are missing - maybe a wholesale readjustment following Rochester being a lot tighter than the 100/1 on odds had suggested... expecting a tightening of the Tory prices and the UKIP odds to drift a little...