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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 27, 2014 13:32:26 GMT
Appalling numbers for the Tories in Carshalton & Wallington:
LD 43% (-5)
Con 23% (-14)
UKIP 17% (+14)
Lab 12% (+3)
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Post by justin124 on Nov 27, 2014 13:44:12 GMT
Falmouth & Cambourne was Labour-held 1997 to 2005. Yes, but so was Enfield Southgate. Won by Labour in the past is not the same thing as Labour heartland. True - but Enfield Southgate had no Labour history as such. |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on Nov 27, 2014 13:49:31 GMT
Again, was Farage actually named? Oddly enough, they didn't do a named response for this seat! |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 27, 2014 13:51:20 GMT
OK, so maybe a better example might be somewhere like Sittingbourne & Sheppey (if we take Faversham as its predecessor) or Shipley. Both had a Labour history, but neither today looks particularly likely to be a gain. You've got to take account both of historical change and of the fact that similar demographics may vote very differently in different constituencies for cultural reasons.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 27, 2014 14:06:46 GMT
Shipley was never won on anything close to current boundaries until 1997. The seat represented by Arthur Greenwood was very different.
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 27, 2014 14:33:21 GMT
Again, was Farage actually named? Oddly enough, they didn't do a named response for this seat! They don't do it for any seat |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2014 14:48:30 GMT
It isn't about Julia Goldsworthy, it is about the general state of the Lib Dems in the constituency. They have gone from impressive fighting force to minor local party status since 2010. It is the remarkable fact for this part of Cornwall. "This part of Cornwall" that you refer to really should be Labour heartland. The truly remarkable fact was the huge slipping away of the Labour vote in 2010 in a constituency boundary that could almost have been drawn by them. You seem to think I am making a narrow political point, I'm not. Any brief perusal of my comments on this constituency will illustrate my absolute amazement at the collapse of the Lib Dems here. Struggling to put up candidates, collapsing in seats where they did (excluding Mount Hawke, which has a different district history), nobody could have expected this. Labour should do better here, but that doesn't detract from the collapse of the Lib Dems, which is remarkable. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 27, 2014 16:48:35 GMT
I could just about believe Labour were only 12% ahead of UKIP in a generic Doncaster N poll - but not with Tory support higher than in 2010. That figure alone makes it suspect. Yep; duff poll. Tory support has dropped like a rock in the area. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Nov 27, 2014 17:00:44 GMT
Birmingham Yardley: LD 34%, Lab 31%, UKIP 19%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Brecon & Radnorshire: LD 31%, Con 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, PC 8%, Grn 2%, Oth *
Burnley: Lab 38%, UKIP 25%, LD 23%, Con 11%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Carshalton & Wallington: LD 43%, Con 23%, UKIP 17%, Lab 12%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Cheltenham: LD 42%, Con 34%, UKIP 11%, Lab 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
Colchester: LD 36%, Con 22%, UKIP 18%, Lab 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Doncaster North: Lab 40%, UKIP 28%, Con 23%, LD 4%, Grn 1%, Oth 3%
Hazel Grove: LD 35%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, Grn 4%, Oth *
Kingston & Surbiton: LD 38%, Con 30%, Lab 16%, UKIP 10%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Lewes: LD 37%, Con 29%, UKIP 15%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2%
North Devon: Con 30%, LD 29%, UKIP 23%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2%
Portsmouth South: Con 30%, LD 25%, Lab 20%, UKIP 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Sheffield Hallam: LD 31%, Lab 28%, Con 19%, UKIP 11%, Grn 9%, Oth 1%
Southport: LD 37%, Con 24%, UKIP 21%, Lab 14%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Thanet South: Con 34%, UKIP 29%, Lab 26%, LD 7%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Thornbury & Yate: LD 47%, Con 24%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Watford: Con 30%, LD 28%, Lab 24%, UKIP 14%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Wyre Forest: Con 32%, UKIP 27%, Lab 16%, LD 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 13%
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Post by justin124 on Nov 27, 2014 17:28:57 GMT
Plaid will not get 8% in Brecon & Radnor.
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 27, 2014 17:54:55 GMT
There is something very strange with the weighting of the Doncaster North Ashcroft poll. It appears that 2010 Tory voters have been massively upweighted and 2010 Labour voters massively downweighted, to the extent that on the weighted figures the seat would have voted Tory in 2010, and by some distance. The patterns seem to be similar in all the tables, but for example here are the absolute numbers of 2010 voters for Con, Lab and LD in Table 1, first the unweighted number and then the weighted one.
Con: uw 117, w 246
Lab: uw 379, w 175
LD: uw 49, w 80
(I wonder whether weightings appropriate for South Thanet were used here by mistake?)
It should also be pointed out that the Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet headline figures appear to be based on reallocatiing 100% of don't knows and refusers to their former parties. Without this re-allocation Farage is ahead and Clegg is behind; I'd estimate that with a 50% reallocation South Thanet would be pretty much tied and Clegg would still be slightly behind.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2014 18:45:22 GMT
There is something very strange with the weighting of the Doncaster North Ashcroft poll. It appears that 2010 Tory voters have been massively upweighted and 2010 Labour voters massively downweighted, to the extent that on the weighted figures the seat would have voted Tory in 2010, and by some distance. The patterns seem to be similar in all the tables, but for example here are the absolute numbers of 2010 voters for Con, Lab and LD in Table 1, first the unweighted number and then the weighted one. Con: uw 117, w 246 Lab: uw 379, w 175 LD: uw 49, w 80 (I wonder whether weightings appropriate for South Thanet were used here by mistake?) It should also be pointed out that the Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet headline figures appear to be based on reallocatiing 100% of don't knows and refusers to their former parties. Without this re-allocation Farage is ahead and Clegg is behind; I'd estimate that with a 50% reallocation South Thanet would be pretty much tied and Clegg would still be slightly behind. Even accounting for such a mistake the results are odd. Why would labour be massively increasing their share in a seat like this. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Nov 27, 2014 18:58:43 GMT
There is something very strange with the weighting of the Doncaster North Ashcroft poll. It appears that 2010 Tory voters have been massively upweighted and 2010 Labour voters massively downweighted, to the extent that on the weighted figures the seat would have voted Tory in 2010, and by some distance. The patterns seem to be similar in all the tables, but for example here are the absolute numbers of 2010 voters for Con, Lab and LD in Table 1, first the unweighted number and then the weighted one. Con: uw 117, w 246 Lab: uw 379, w 175 LD: uw 49, w 80 (I wonder whether weightings appropriate for South Thanet were used here by mistake?) It should also be pointed out that the Sheffield Hallam and South Thanet headline figures appear to be based on reallocatiing 100% of don't knows and refusers to their former parties. Without this re-allocation Farage is ahead and Clegg is behind; I'd estimate that with a 50% reallocation South Thanet would be pretty much tied and Clegg would still be slightly behind. Even accounting for such a mistake the results are odd. Why would labour be massively increasing their share in a seat like this. Do you mean in Hallam? (I don't think there's been a mistake there, just an unusual choice of reallocation methodology which actually makes things look better for Clegg. The mistake I suspect is in Doncaster North.) I think if you talk to people in Hallam who work in health or education (of whom there are quite a lot) and talk to them about Nick Clegg you might start to find these figures less surprising. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 27, 2014 18:59:41 GMT
Shipley was never won on anything close to current boundaries until 1997. The seat represented by Arthur Greenwood was very different. I don't know; it was always Shipley and Bingley based, though it did extend into Yeadon IIRC. The issue is more that those towns were quite different then, surely? (Arthur Creech-Jones, not Greenwood, but I presume that's a typo). |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 28, 2014 18:40:09 GMT
Birmingham Yardley: LD 34%, Lab 31%, UKIP 19%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1% Brecon & Radnorshire: LD 31%, Con 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, PC 8%, Grn 2%, Oth * Burnley: Lab 38%, UKIP 25%, LD 23%, Con 11%, Grn 2%, Oth 2% Carshalton & Wallington: LD 43%, Con 23%, UKIP 17%, Lab 12%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Cheltenham: LD 42%, Con 34%, UKIP 11%, Lab 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 1% Colchester: LD 36%, Con 22%, UKIP 18%, Lab 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Doncaster North: Lab 40%, UKIP 28%, Con 23%, LD 4%, Grn 1%, Oth 3% Hazel Grove: LD 35%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, Grn 4%, Oth * Kingston & Surbiton: LD 38%, Con 30%, Lab 16%, UKIP 10%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Lewes: LD 37%, Con 29%, UKIP 15%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2% North Devon: Con 30%, LD 29%, UKIP 23%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2% Portsmouth South: Con 30%, LD 25%, Lab 20%, UKIP 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Sheffield Hallam: LD 31%, Lab 28%, Con 19%, UKIP 11%, Grn 9%, Oth 1% Southport: LD 37%, Con 24%, UKIP 21%, Lab 14%, Grn 2%, Oth 1% Thanet South: Con 34%, UKIP 29%, Lab 26%, LD 7%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Thornbury & Yate: LD 47%, Con 24%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Watford: Con 30%, LD 28%, Lab 24%, UKIP 14%, Grn 3%, Oth * Wyre Forest: Con 32%, UKIP 27%, Lab 16%, LD 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 13% Obviously major caveat with constituency polls but the lib dems seem to be really holding up well in some of their seats (e.g. Thornbury and Yate). However That Sheffield Hallam poll is too close for comfort, if true. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 28, 2014 20:12:27 GMT
Birmingham Yardley: LD 34%, Lab 31%, UKIP 19%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1% Brecon & Radnorshire: LD 31%, Con 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, PC 8%, Grn 2%, Oth * Burnley: Lab 38%, UKIP 25%, LD 23%, Con 11%, Grn 2%, Oth 2% Carshalton & Wallington: LD 43%, Con 23%, UKIP 17%, Lab 12%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Cheltenham: LD 42%, Con 34%, UKIP 11%, Lab 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 1% Colchester: LD 36%, Con 22%, UKIP 18%, Lab 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Doncaster North: Lab 40%, UKIP 28%, Con 23%, LD 4%, Grn 1%, Oth 3% Hazel Grove: LD 35%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, Grn 4%, Oth * Kingston & Surbiton: LD 38%, Con 30%, Lab 16%, UKIP 10%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Lewes: LD 37%, Con 29%, UKIP 15%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2% North Devon: Con 30%, LD 29%, UKIP 23%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2% Portsmouth South: Con 30%, LD 25%, Lab 20%, UKIP 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Sheffield Hallam: LD 31%, Lab 28%, Con 19%, UKIP 11%, Grn 9%, Oth 1% Southport: LD 37%, Con 24%, UKIP 21%, Lab 14%, Grn 2%, Oth 1% Thanet South: Con 34%, UKIP 29%, Lab 26%, LD 7%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Thornbury & Yate: LD 47%, Con 24%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Watford: Con 30%, LD 28%, Lab 24%, UKIP 14%, Grn 3%, Oth * Wyre Forest: Con 32%, UKIP 27%, Lab 16%, LD 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 13% Steve Webb for Leader!  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2014 20:17:20 GMT
Birmingham Yardley: LD 34%, Lab 31%, UKIP 19%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1% Brecon & Radnorshire: LD 31%, Con 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, PC 8%, Grn 2%, Oth * Burnley: Lab 38%, UKIP 25%, LD 23%, Con 11%, Grn 2%, Oth 2% Carshalton & Wallington: LD 43%, Con 23%, UKIP 17%, Lab 12%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Cheltenham: LD 42%, Con 34%, UKIP 11%, Lab 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 1% Colchester: LD 36%, Con 22%, UKIP 18%, Lab 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Doncaster North: Lab 40%, UKIP 28%, Con 23%, LD 4%, Grn 1%, Oth 3% Hazel Grove: LD 35%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, Lab 15%, Grn 4%, Oth * Kingston & Surbiton: LD 38%, Con 30%, Lab 16%, UKIP 10%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Lewes: LD 37%, Con 29%, UKIP 15%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2% North Devon: Con 30%, LD 29%, UKIP 23%, Lab 9%, Grn 7%, Oth 2% Portsmouth South: Con 30%, LD 25%, Lab 20%, UKIP 17%, Grn 6%, Oth 1% Sheffield Hallam: LD 31%, Lab 28%, Con 19%, UKIP 11%, Grn 9%, Oth 1% Southport: LD 37%, Con 24%, UKIP 21%, Lab 14%, Grn 2%, Oth 1% Thanet South: Con 34%, UKIP 29%, Lab 26%, LD 7%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Thornbury & Yate: LD 47%, Con 24%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 3%, Oth 1% Watford: Con 30%, LD 28%, Lab 24%, UKIP 14%, Grn 3%, Oth * Wyre Forest: Con 32%, UKIP 27%, Lab 16%, LD 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 13% Steve Webb for Leader! In my book, liberals shouldn't do god. |
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Post by mrhell on Nov 28, 2014 21:35:37 GMT
I was going to vote for Webb for leader until he pulled out of the running.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 28, 2014 21:59:54 GMT
I was going to vote for Webb for leader until he pulled out of the running. Ditto. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 28, 2014 22:43:06 GMT
Hallam poll seems a bit unlikely to my mind. Firstly, I can't see the Labour vote getting quite as high as that (at least if the students aren't there). Secondly, I can't see the Tory vote there holding up so well if that UKIP vote were as high as stated.
Wyre Forest, if true, represents one hell of a collapse for Labour and I don't really believe that either. I also wonder about Other there- surely with the Lib Dems at 7%, you'd expect Taylor to be doing well.
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