General Election Constituency Polls

[Devonian]

Survation poll on behalf of Unite for Stockton South

Con 39% (nc)
Lab 37% (-1)
UKIP 18% (+15)
Lib Dem 3% (-12)
Other 3% (-2)


us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=e17762efe2cccb1f0ed943c1f&id=7e840d8cf9

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Stockton-South-TTIP-Full-Tables.pdf

[iain]

Ouch.
If that is even close to accurate, Labour are in trouble

[YL]

Ashcroft has polled this constituency twice. In May he published a 10 point Labour lead on the standard voting intention question, and a 7 point Labour lead on the constituency voting intention. In July those leads had dropped to 6 and 3 respectively. The Survation poll named the candidates, so would be more comparable to Ashcroft's constituency question. This might suggest a personal vote helping Wharton, but any such conclusions must be tentative.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mike Smithson has spotted something:

[Deleted]

Nov 19, 2014 19:14:57 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Mike Smithson has spotted something:

I'm sure this is just a cut&paste error, but the front page of the data says the poll is weight to 'all adults in Rochester & Strood'

[Deleted]

That is a big mistake. Properly adjusted, it will be a Labour lead, just not a large one.

[No Offence Alan]

Any particular reason Unite would hold a poll in this seat? Do they sponsor the Labour candidate, for example?

[Devonian]

Nov 19, 2014 22:09:14 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Any particular reason Unite would hold a poll in this seat? Do they sponsor the Labour candidate, for example?

The poll also included the following

TTIP - The EU - US Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership



We also asked Stockton South residents about the US-EU trade agreement known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). We found that when put:

Only 18% supported inclusion of the NHS in the agreement with 63% opposed

60% thought David Cameron should seek to exclude the NHS from the agreement

51% told Survation the Prime Minister should veto TTIP should he fail to gain a guaranteed opt-out for the NHS. Only 17% thought a veto was not appropriate

It was also Unite who commissioned the second Survation constituency poll in the Rochester and Strood by election and that also asked about TTIP. I suspect the constituency was picked simply because it is a marginal , I suspect these polls have more to do with promoting Unite's political agenda than they have to do with any particular candidate.

[myth11]

does the uk  have a veto on tipp?

[oldwarhorse]

The candidate is not a unite candidate.

[finsobruce]

Nov 19, 2014 22:09:14 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Any particular reason Unite would hold a poll in this seat? Do they sponsor the Labour candidate, for example?

Nope - in fact Louise Baldock beat UNITE's preferred nominee Linda Hughes in the selection. Baldock is a Labour/Co-op candidate

[The Bishop]

Whilst it is obviously not good news for Labour to be trailing here, we should remember that SS is a polarised constituency that tends to see low swings outside of "realigning" elections. It has always been likely to be close, and people should avoid drawing sweeping conclusions about the national picture from it (needless to say, some in the MSM have been unable to avoid doing just that)

[Sibboleth]

Constituency polling also tends to be a load of rubbish.

[iain]

Thought I'd collate the Ashcroft Polls in one place:

24th May
Amber Valley: Lab 44%, Con 30%, UKIP 16%, LD 6%, Oth 4%
Broxtowe: Lab 44%, Con 30%, UKIP 13%, LD 10%, Oth 3%
Cardiff North: Lab 40%, Con 33%, LD 10%, UKIP 8%, Pld 7%, Oth 4%
Great Yarmouth: Lab 34%, Con 32%, UKIP 28%, LD 5%, Oth 1%
Hendon: Lab 44%, Con 36%, UKIP 11%, LD 7%, Oth 3%
Lancaster & Fleetwood: Lab 43%, Con 29%, UKIP 12%, LD 6%, Oth 10%
Morecambe & Lunesdale: Lab 39%, Con 37%, UKIP 13%, LD 7%, Oth 4%
Sherwood: Lab 43%, Con 31%, UKIP 19%, LD 5%, Oth 2%
Stockton South: Lab 43%, Con 36%, UKIP 12%, LD 5%, Oth 3%
Thanet South: Con 32%, Lab 31%, UKIP 27%, LD 7%, Oth 3%
Thurrock: Lab 37%, UKIP 29%, Con 27%, LD 4%, Oth 3%
Waveney: Lab 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, LD 6%, Oth 5%
Warwickshire North: Lab 43%, Con 35%, UKIP 15%, LD 3%, Oth 4%
Wolverhampton South West: Lab 46%, Con 33%, UKIP 14%, LD 5%, Oth 2%
Birmingham Edgbaston: Lab 44%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 5%, Oth 5%
Bolton West: Lab 41%, Con 28%, UKIP 17%, LD 10%, Oth 3%
Derby North: Lab 44%, Con 23%, UKIP 17%, LD 12%, Oth 4%
Dudley North: Lab 40%, UKIP 27%, Con 24%, LD 4%, Oth 5%
Great Grimsby: Lab 38%, UKIP 26%, Con 21%, LD 10%, Oth 5%
Halifax: Lab 43%, Con 26%, UKIP 18%, LD 8%, Oth 5%
Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 41%, Con 30%, LD 19%, UKIP 3%, Oth 6%
Morley & Outwood: Lab 41%, Con 24%, UKIP 20%, LD 5%, Oth 10%
Southampton Itchen: Lab 36%, Con 28%, UKIP 20%, LD 12%, Oth 4%
Telford: Lab 43%, Con 26%, UKIP 24%, LD 4%, Oth 3%
Walsall North: Lab 37%, UKIP 30%, Con 21%, LD 8%, Oth 4%
Wirral South: Lab 43%, Con 27%, UKIP 15%, LD 12%, Oth 4%

19th June
Camborne & Redruth: Con 29%, UKIP 26%, Lab 24%, LD 14%, Oth 7%
Cheadle: LD 32%, Con 29%, Lab 21%, UKIP 15%, Oth 3%
Chippenham: Con 35%, LD 26%, UKIP 19%, Lab 12%, Oth 8%
Cornwall North: LD 31%, Con 31%, UKIP 24%, Lab 8%, Oth 6%
Dorset Mid & Poole North: Con 39%, LD 32%, UKIP 17%, Lab 8%, Oth 4%
Eastleigh: LD 39%, Con 27%, UKIP 22%, Lab 10%, Oth 2%
Harrogate & Knaresborough: Con 41%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Lab 11%, Grn 8%
Newton Abbot: Con 39%, UKIP 20%, LD 20%, Lab 13%, Oth 8%
Oxford West & Abingdon: Con 36%, LD 25%, Lab 18%, UKIP 11%, Oth 9%
Solihull: Con 37%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 12%, Oth 7%
Somerton & Frome: Con 41%, LD 29%, UKIP 14%, Lab 9%, Oth 6%
St Austell & Newquay: Con 32%, UKIP 25%, LD 24%, Lab 10%, Oth 9%
St Ives: Con 30%, LD 29%, UKIP 21%, Lab 11%, Oth 9%
Sutton & Cheam: LD 42%, Con 29%, UKIP 14%, Lab 11%, Oth 3%
Truro & Falmouth: Con 33%, UKIP 22%, Lab 18%, LD 16%, Oth 11%
Watford: Con 29%, Lab 25%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Oth 6%
Wells: Con 34%, LD 29%, UKIP 16%, Lab 11%, Oth 9%

1st July
Bradford East: Lab 45%, LD 23%, UKIP 15%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 3%
Brent Central: Lab 54%, LD 19%, Con 13%, UKIP 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
Brighton Pavilion: Lab 33%, Grn 32%, Con 18%, UKIP 9%, LD 5%, Oth 2%
Manchester Withington: Lab 56%, LD 22%, Grn 10%, Con 7%, UKIP 4%, Oth 1%
Norwich South: Lab 33%, Grn 20%, Con 18%, UKIP 15%, LD 12%, Oth 1%

22nd July
Amber Valley: Lab 37%, Con 33%, UKIP 22%, LD 3%, Grn 3%, Oth 2%
Broxtowe: Lab 39%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, LD 7%, Grn 4%, Oth 2%
Cardiff North: Lab 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 12%, Pld 7%, LD 6%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Great Yarmouth: Con 33%, UKIP 31%, Lab 28%, Grn 4%, LD 3%, Oth 1%
Hendon: Lab 49%, Con 34%, UKIP 9%, LD 4%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Lancaster & Fleetwood: Lab 41%, Con 27%, UKIP 18%, Grn 10%, LD 4%, Oth 2%
Morecambe & Lunesdale: Lab 37%, Con 34%, UKIP 18%, LD 6%, Grn 4%, Oth 2%
Sherwood: Lab 39%, Con 30%, UKIP 23%, LD 4%, Grn 4%, Oth 2%
Stockton South: Lab 38%, Con 35%, UKIP 19%, LD 4%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Thanet South: UKIP 33%, Con 29%, Lab 29%, LD 4%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%
Thurrock: UKIP 36%, Lab 30%, Con 28%, LD 2%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Warwickshire North: Lab 38%, Con 30%, UKIP 24%, LD 3%, Grn 3%, Oth 2%
Waveney: Lab 37%, Con 28%, UKIP 22%, Grn 9%, LD 3%, Oth 1%
Wolverhampton South West: Lab 46%, Con 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 5%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%

20th August
Bedford: Lab 38%, Con 28%, UKIP 15%, LD 14%, Grn 3%, Oth 2%
Carlisle: Lab 41%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 3%
Dewsbury: Lab 40%, Con 30%, UKIP 18%, Grn 6%, LD 4%, Oth 3%
Lincoln: Lab 39%, Con 35%, UKIP 17%, LD 6%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport: Lab 39%, Con 26%, UKIP 21%, Grn 8%, LD 6%, Oth 1%
Stroud: Lab 41%, Con 30%, Grn 11%, UKIP 11%, LD 6%, Oth *
Warrington South: Lab 37%, Con 29%, LD 15%, UKIP 15%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Weaver Vale: Lab 41%, Con 32%, UKIP 18%, LD 6%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Birmingham Edgbaston: Lab 48%, Con 29%, UKIP 12%, Grn 5%, LD 3%, Oth 1%
Bolton West: Lab 40%, Con 27%, UKIP 21%, LD 8%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 47%, Con 30%, LD 13%, Grn 6%, UKIP 2%, Oth 1%
Southampton Itchen: Lab 34%, Con 34%, UKIP 19%, LD 10%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%

28th September
Oxford West & Abingdon: Con 38%, LD 30%, Lab 18%, UKIP 9%, Grn 4%, Oth *
Watford: Lab 29, Con 27%, LD 25%, UKIP 14%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%
Berwick-Upon-Tweed: Con 33%, LD 30%, UKIP 17%, Lab 16%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Cheadle: LD 34%, Con 30%, Lab 19%, UKIP 13%, Grn 2%, Oth 3%
Chippenham: Con 39%, LD 24%, UKIP 16%, Lab 14%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Cornwall North: LD 33%, Con 33%, UKIP 20%, Lab 10%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Dorset Mid & Poole North: Con 38%, LD 32%, UKIP 19%, Lab 8%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Eastbourne: LD 46%, Con 25%, UKIP 18%, Lab 7%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Eastleigh: LD 40%, Con 25%, UKIP 21%, Lab 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Solihull: Con 37%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 12%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Somerton & Frome: Con 41%, LD 27%, UKIP 17%, Lab 9%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
St Austell & Newquay: Con 27%, LD 26%, UKIP 25%, Lab 13%, Grn 6%, Oth 3%
St Ives: LD 32%, Con 31%, UKIP 18%, Lab 11%, Grn 6%, Oth 2%
Sutton & Cheam: LD 45%, Con 27%, UKIP 14%, Lab 11%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Taunton Deane: Con 34%, LD 30%, UKIP 15%, Lab 14%, Grn 6%, Oth 1%
Torbay: LD 30%, Con 30%, UKIP 21%, Lab 15%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Wells: Con 35%, LD 28%, UKIP 16%, Lab 13%, Grn 7%, Oth *
Bermondsey & Old Southwark: LD 36%, Lab 35%, Con 14%, UKIP 9%, Grn 5%, Oth 2%
Cambridge: Lab 33%, LD 32%, Con 19%, Grn 8%, UKIP 7%, Oth 1%
Cardiff Central: Lab 36%, LD 24%, Con 17%, UKIP 9%, Pld 9%, Grn 5%, Oth *
Hornsey & Wood Green: Lab 43%, LD 30%, Con 14%, Grn 8%, UKIP 3%, Oth 1%
Redcar: Lab 44%, UKIP 23%, LD 18%, Con 12%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%

16th October
Brentford & Isleworth: Lab 45%, Con 32%, LD 10%, UKIP 7%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%
Brighton Kemptown: Lab 37%, Con 33%, UKIP 13%, Grn 10%, LD 6%, Oth 1%
Corby: Lab 40%, Con 30%, UKIP 21%, LD 5%, Grn 2%, Oth 2%
Enfield North: Lab 44%, Con 34%, UKIP 12%, Grn 3%, LD 3%, Oth 3%
Gloucester: Con 34%, Lab 33%, UKIP 18%, LD 12%, Grn 3%, Oth *
Halesowen & Rowley Regis: Lab 35%, Con 34%, UKIP 24%, Grn 4%, LD 2%, Oth 1%
Hastings & Rye: Lab 40%, Con 31%, UKIP 19%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Hove: Lab 37%, Con 34%, Grn 12%, UKIP 11%, LD 6%, Oth *
Ipswich: Lab 38%, Con 31%, UKIP 19%, LD 6%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
Nuneaton: Lab 39%, Con 36%, UKIP 19%, LD 3%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Pudsey: Lab 36%, Con 36%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%

5th November
Blackpool North & Cleveleys: Con 35%, Lab 32%, UKIP 24%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Bury North: Lab 41%, Con 32%, UKIP 20%, LD 5%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Cannock Chase: Lab 32%, UKIP 30%, Con 27%, LD 8%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
City of Chester: Lab 37%, Con 36%, UKIP 15%, LD 7%, Grn 5%, Oth 1%
Croydon Central: Lab 39%, Con 33%, UKIP 19%, Grn 4%, LD 4%, Oth 1%
Erewash: Lab 38%, Con 30%, UKIP 22%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 2%
Keighley: Lab 37%, Con 31%, UKIP 23%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 1%
Kingswood: Con 34%, Lab 32%, UKIP 23%, LD 6%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%
Loughborough: Con 40%, Lab 37%, UKIP 12%, LD 5%, Grn 3%, Oth 3%
Northampton North: Lab 35%, Con 31%, UKIP 22%, LD 9%, Grn 2%, Oth 1%
Wirral West: Lab 39%, Con 38%, UKIP 12%, LD 6%, Grn 4%, Oth 1%
Worcester: Lab 36%, Con 34%, UKIP 17%, Grn 7%, LD 5%, Oth 1%

[iain]

And the map (paler colours means result within MoE, where more than one poll exists the most recent is used)

Attachments:

[Devonian]

More Lord Ashcroft Constituency polls out tomorrow. Interesting tweet from Ashcroft

Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft

Released tomorrow polling in Doncaster North showing UKIP 2nd so if Tories tactically vote for UKIP Miliband loses #votetorygetlabour!

[Pimpernal]

Odd - Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Sittingbourne and Sheppey and Thanet North...

[Devonian]

Nov 26, 2014 21:57:20 GMT Pimpernal said:

Odd - Ladbrokes have suspended betting on Sittingbourne and Sheppey and Thanet North...

Maybe they know something about Lord Ashcroft's results?

[Pimpernal]

I was wondering that... but that wouldn't be ethical would it???

[Pimpernal]

On further investigation it seems most of the Kent seats are missing - maybe a wholesale readjustment following Rochester being a lot tighter than the 100/1 on odds had suggested... expecting a tightening of the Tory prices and the UKIP odds to drift a little...