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Post by thirdchill on Nov 29, 2014 10:43:21 GMT
Couple of other thoughts: Hazel Grove now looks to be in reach for us, although the lib dems will be throwing the kitchen sink at both Hazel Grove and Cheadle. A shock outcome of losing Hazel Grove and holding Cheadle certainly can't be ruled out.
Southport on the other hand is as I expected. Almost certain lib dem hold, the conservative vote is going quite strongly to UKIP. The Lib Dems are also very entrenched here, holding their wards when the rest of sefton is becoming a lost cause to them.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 29, 2014 10:55:16 GMT
Couple of other thoughts: Hazel Grove now looks to be in reach for us, although the lib dems will be throwing the SPAM SPAM SPAM sink at both Hazel Grove and Cheadle. A shock outcome of losing Hazel Grove and holding Cheadle certainly can't be ruled out. Southport on the other hand is as I expected. Almost certain lib dem hold, the conservative vote is going quite strongly to UKIP. The Lib Dems are also very entrenched here, holding their wards when the rest of sefton is becoming a lost cause to them. I think you're right on Hazel Grove and Cheadle- I'd imagine every Lib Dem in a thirty mile radius will be heading there. Mark Hunter is very popular and I know a fair few Tory voters in that constituency who vote Lib Dem at the general but Tory at all other times, because of Winstanley/Calton/Hunter. On Hazel Grove, I don't know that part of town very well but Stunnell was always very visible (he had a column in the MEN at one point) and had a good reputation. Southport I agree on as well, and that is a patch I know reasonably well. The seat has a long Liberal tradition, John Pugh has a big personal following, as did (and does) Ronnie Fearn. It's a machine. I'll defer to Merseymike on this one, but I can't see a serious Labour challenge in Southport until Pugh calls it a day. As with the two seats above, there's a lot of vote splitting by all accounts (or so I hear from my grandparents, who live there and keep an eye on these things) with normally staunch Tories voting for Pugh- and given the circumstances, I can't see that part of the vote drifting to UKIP- it's the traditionalist, hard-Right part of the Tory vote that will go over to UKIP. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 29, 2014 11:16:49 GMT
Couple of other thoughts: Hazel Grove now looks to be in reach for us, although the lib dems will be throwing the SPAM SPAM SPAM sink at both Hazel Grove and Cheadle. A shock outcome of losing Hazel Grove and holding Cheadle certainly can't be ruled out. Southport on the other hand is as I expected. Almost certain lib dem hold, the conservative vote is going quite strongly to UKIP. The Lib Dems are also very entrenched here, holding their wards when the rest of sefton is becoming a lost cause to them. I think you're right on Hazel Grove and Cheadle- I'd imagine every Lib Dem in a thirty mile radius will be heading there. Mark Hunter is very popular and I know a fair few Tory voters in that constituency who vote Lib Dem at the general but Tory at all other times, because of Winstanley/Calton/Hunter. On Hazel Grove, I don't know that part of town very well but Stunnell was always very visible (he had a column in the MEN at one point) and had a good reputation. Southport I agree on as well, and that is a patch I know reasonably well. The seat has a long Liberal tradition, John Pugh has a big personal following, as did (and does) Ronnie Fearn. It's a machine. I'll defer to Merseymike on this one, but I can't see a serious Labour challenge in Southport until Pugh calls it a day. As with the two seats above, there's a lot of vote splitting by all accounts (or so I hear from my grandparents, who live there and keep an eye on these things) with normally staunch Tories voting for Pugh- and given the circumstances, I can't see that part of the vote drifting to UKIP- it's the traditionalist, hard-Right part of the Tory vote that will go over to UKIP. It must help that the Tory party in Southport seems to be the most disorganised, faction-ridden in the country. And that's no mean feat! |
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Post by thirdchill on Nov 29, 2014 11:31:35 GMT
I think you're right on Hazel Grove and Cheadle- I'd imagine every Lib Dem in a thirty mile radius will be heading there. Mark Hunter is very popular and I know a fair few Tory voters in that constituency who vote Lib Dem at the general but Tory at all other times, because of Winstanley/Calton/Hunter. On Hazel Grove, I don't know that part of town very well but Stunnell was always very visible (he had a column in the MEN at one point) and had a good reputation. Southport I agree on as well, and that is a patch I know reasonably well. The seat has a long Liberal tradition, John Pugh has a big personal following, as did (and does) Ronnie Fearn. It's a machine. I'll defer to Merseymike on this one, but I can't see a serious Labour challenge in Southport until Pugh calls it a day. As with the two seats above, there's a lot of vote splitting by all accounts (or so I hear from my grandparents, who live there and keep an eye on these things) with normally staunch Tories voting for Pugh- and given the circumstances, I can't see that part of the vote drifting to UKIP- it's the traditionalist, hard-Right part of the Tory vote that will go over to UKIP. It must help that the Tory party in Southport seems to be the most disorganised, faction-ridden in the country. And that's no mean feat! They have at least got rid of some of the troublemakers who have moved elsewhere. They still aren't organised though, the ashcroft poll showing which party the constituents had heard from was pretty depressing for the conservatives in southport (4%). We have more conservative councillors in the Worsley and Eccles south constituency (not generally considered to be a marginal) than the party does in the whole of sefton! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2014 11:46:26 GMT
link to infoHad anyone noticed that it was only the women of Doncaster North that would keep Ed Miliband in a job, if it was down to the men it seems he would not be the MP
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 29, 2014 11:48:14 GMT
Yes but as already demonstrated the poll is mince anyway.
There is absolutely no way, not even a 0.1% chance, that Tory support is up on the last GE in Doncaster North. The end.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 29, 2014 22:25:33 GMT
I was going to vote for Webb for leader until he pulled out of the running. Ditto. I e-mailed him urging him to stand. Though I'm not wild about the God thing. |
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Post by Anonyman on Nov 29, 2014 23:21:25 GMT
I e-mailed him urging him to stand. Though I'm not wild about the God thing. With Sal Brinton's election as Party President, the presidency has passed from one vice-president of the Liberal Democrat Christian Forum to another. Steve Webb is the third. |
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Post by Penddu on Nov 30, 2014 0:59:08 GMT
Plaid will not get 8% in Brecon & Radnor. I tend to agree. While they have support in the upper Swansea & Neath Valley parts of the seat they are pretty thin on the ground elsewhere. Incidentally i I think this area should not be in this seat or be part of Powys. They naturally look South down the valley towards Neath and Swansea and not over the Beacons to Brecon |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Nov 30, 2014 10:20:33 GMT
The local government boundary commission supported moving all of southern Breconshire, just short of Brecon in to Glamorganshire in the 1960s for much the same reason.
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 1, 2014 18:38:47 GMT
Lord Ashcroft has now withdrawn the original Doncaster North poll.
Corrected figures are Lab 51, UKIP 27, Con 14, LD 3
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Dec 2, 2014 18:46:55 GMT
Here are the increases in Lib Dem vote share when the constituency-specific question is asked in the Ashcroft polls compared with the standard question.
(Lib Dem seats only; most recent poll used where there's more than one.)
Eastbourne 22
Sutton & Cheam 19
Thornbury & Yate 19
Carshalton & Wallington 18
Cheltenham 17
Birmingham Yardley 16
Colchester 16
Southport 16
Eastleigh 15
Kingston & Surbiton 15
St Ives 14
Bermondsey & Old Southwark 13
Brecon & Radnorshire 13
Cheadle 13
Hazel Grove 13
Mid Dorset & North Poole 13
Lewes 12
North Cornwall 12
Torbay 12
Burnley 11
Cambridge 11
Hornsey & Wood Green 11
Solihull 10
Bradford East 9
Portsmouth South 9
Berwick upon Tweed 8
Cardiff Central 8
Chippenham 8
Somerton & Frome 8
Taunton Deane 8
Manchester Withington 7
North Devon 7
St Austell & Newquay 7
Redcar 6
Wells 6
Brent Central 5
Norwich South 4
Sheffield Hallam 4
NB the Hallam poll had different methodology from the others.
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Post by Devonian on Dec 15, 2014 19:48:17 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 15, 2014 21:52:25 GMT
Always interesting to have such material wherever the constituency, but what bloody silly choices of seat. Is that UNITE the union pissing members dues down another toilet for no reason again? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 15, 2014 21:57:35 GMT
Those LD scores are extraodinary for those seats especially SW Surrey
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2014 21:58:04 GMT
At face value, daft polls, but UKIP at the action end of the late-teens in the PMs constituency is worth a second glance, I say.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Dec 16, 2014 11:57:49 GMT
Always interesting to have such material wherever the constituency, but what bloody silly choices of seat. Is that UNITE the union pissing members dues down another toilet for no reason again? The VI is an afterthought. It's to put pressure on over TTIP by trying to show it unpopularity in the constituencies of the PM and Health Minister. Not likely to have much impact, because the incumbents can and will ignore inconvenient local opinions, but less actively wasteful than a standard constituency poll. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 16, 2014 17:05:13 GMT
Always interesting to have such material wherever the constituency, but what bloody silly choices of seat. Is that UNITE the union pissing members dues down another toilet for no reason again? The VI is an afterthought. It's to put pressure on over TTIP by trying to show it unpopularity in the constituencies of the PM and Health Minister. Not likely to have much impact, because the incumbents can and will ignore inconvenient local opinions, but less actively wasteful than a standard constituency poll. But at that considerable expense, just what does it show, and who will make any note of it? Not the public and not the Union members I feel sure. I am an anorak and it means nothing to me. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2014 17:40:46 GMT
Good Green numbers there. Does support the polling we're seeing from YouGov; and I'd imagine in both constituencies there won't be much vote-squeezing from Labour. |
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Post by Ben Walker on Dec 17, 2014 4:26:25 GMT
Rather surprised Ukip's in the high-teens in Witney. I'd written Oxfordshire off as a land with pitiful party organisation and very unreceptive voters. Perhaps an anti-Cameron vote is what gives us such a good share, idk.
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